Quantification of temporal fault trees based on fuzzy set theory

© Springer International Publishing Switzerland 2014. Fault tree analysis (FTA) has been modified in different ways to make it capable of performing quantitative and qualitative safety analysis with temporal gates, thereby overcoming its limitation in capturing sequential failure behaviour. However, for many systems, it is often very difficult to have exact failure rates of components due to increased complexity of systems, scarcity of necessary statistical data etc. To overcome this problem, this paper presents a methodology based on fuzzy set theory to quantify temporal fault trees. This makes the imprecision in available failure data more explicit and helps to obtain a range of most probable values for the top event probability

Simulation of the soil water balance of wheat using daily weather forecast messages to estimate the reference evapotranspiration

Abstract. Aiming at developing real time water balance modelling for irrigation scheduling, this study assesses the accuracy of using the reference evapotranspiration (ETo) estimated from daily weather forecast messages (ETo,WF) as model input. A previous study applied to eight locations in China (Cai et al., 2007) has shown the feasibility for estimating ETo,WF with the FAO Penman-Monteith equation using daily forecasts of maximum and minimum temperature, cloudiness and wind speed. In this study, the global radiation is estimated from the difference between the forecasted maximum and minimum temperatures, the actual vapour pressure is estimated from the forecasted minimum temperature and the wind speed is obtained from converting the common wind scales into wind speed. The present application refers to a location in the North China Plain, Daxing, for the wheat crop seasons of 2005–2006 and 2006–2007. Results comparing ETo,WF with ETo computed with observed data (ETo,obs) have shown favourable goodness of fitting indicators and a RMSE of 0.77mmd−1. ETo was underestimated in the first year and overestimated in the second. The water balance model ISAREG was calibrated with data from four treatments for the first season and validated with data of five treatments in the second season using observed weather data. The calibrated crop parameters were used in the simulations of the same treatments using ETo,WF as model input. Errors in predicting the soil water content are small, 0.010 and 0.012m3 m−3, respectively for the first and second year. Other indicators also confirm the goodness of model predictions. It could be concluded that using ETo computed from daily weather forecast messages provides for accurate model predictions and to use an irrigation scheduling model in real tim

Generalized second law of thermodynamics in f(T) gravity

We investigate the validity of the generalized second law (GSL) of gravitational thermodynamics in the framework of f(T) modified teleparallel gravity. We consider a spatially flat FRW universe containing only the pressureless matter. The boundary of the universe is assumed to be enclosed by the Hubble horizon. For two viable f(T) models containing $f(T)=T+\mu_1{(-T)}^n$ and $f(T)=T-\mu_2 T(1-e^{\beta\frac{T_0}{T}})$, we first calculate the effective equation of state and deceleration parameters. Then, we investigate the null and strong energy conditions and conclude that a sudden future singularity appears in both models. Furthermore, using a cosmographic analysis we check the viability of two models. Finally, we examine the validity of the GSL and find that for both models it is satisfied from the early times to the present epoch. But in the future, the GSL is violated for the special ranges of the torsion scalar T.Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, accepted by JCAP 201

Does accelerating universe indicates Brans-Dicke theory

The evolution of universe in Brans-Dicke (BD) theory is discussed in this paper. Considering a parameterized scenario for BD scalar field $\phi=\phi_{0}a^{\alpha}$ which plays the role of gravitational "constant" $G$, we apply the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to investigate a global constraints on BD theory with a self-interacting potential according to the current observational data: Union2 dataset of type supernovae Ia (SNIa), high-redshift Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) data, observational Hubble data (OHD), the cluster X-ray gas mass fraction, the baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO), and the cosmic microwave background (CMB) data. It is shown that an expanded universe from deceleration to acceleration is given in this theory, and the constraint results of dimensionless matter density $\Omega_{0m}$ and parameter $\alpha$ are, $\Omega_{0m}=0.286^{+0.037+0.050}_{-0.039-0.047}$ and $\alpha=0.0046^{+0.0149+0.0171}_{-0.0171-0.0206}$ which is consistent with the result of current experiment exploration, $\mid\alpha\mid \leq 0.132124$. In addition, we use the geometrical diagnostic method, jerk parameter $j$, to distinguish the BD theory and cosmological constant model in Einstein's theory of general relativity.Comment: 16 pages, 3 figure

Observational constraint on generalized Chaplygin gas model

We investigate observational constraints on the generalized Chaplygin gas (GCG) model as the unification of dark matter and dark energy from the latest observational data: the Union SNe Ia data, the observational Hubble data, the SDSS baryon acoustic peak and the five-year WMAP shift parameter. It is obtained that the best fit values of the GCG model parameters with their confidence level are $A_{s}=0.73^{+0.06}_{-0.06}$ ($1\sigma$) $^{+0.09}_{-0.09}$ $(2\sigma)$, $\alpha=-0.09^{+0.15}_{-0.12}$ ($1\sigma$) $^{+0.26}_{-0.19}$ $(2\sigma)$. Furthermore in this model, we can see that the evolution of equation of state (EOS) for dark energy is similar to quiessence, and its current best-fit value is $w_{0de}=-0.96$ with the $1\sigma$ confidence level $-0.91\geq w_{0de}\geq-1.00$.Comment: 9 pages, 5 figure

Concept of temperature in multi-horizon spacetimes: Analysis of Schwarzschild-De Sitter metric

In case of spacetimes with single horizon, there exist several well-established procedures for relating the surface gravity of the horizon to a thermodynamic temperature. Such procedures, however, cannot be extended in a straightforward manner when a spacetime has multiple horizons. In particular, it is not clear whether there exists a notion of global temperature characterizing the multi-horizon spacetimes. We examine the conditions under which a global temperature can exist for a spacetime with two horizons using the example of Schwarzschild-De Sitter (SDS) spacetime. We systematically extend different procedures (like the expectation value of stress tensor, response of particle detectors, periodicity in the Euclidean time etc.) for identifying a temperature in the case of spacetimes with single horizon to the SDS spacetime. This analysis is facilitated by using a global coordinate chart which covers the entire SDS manifold. We find that all the procedures lead to a consistent picture characterized by the following features: (a) In general, SDS spacetime behaves like a non-equilibrium system characterized by two temperatures. (b) It is not possible to associate a global temperature with SDS spacetime except when the ratio of the two surface gravities is rational (c) Even when the ratio of the two surface gravities is rational, the thermal nature depends on the coordinate chart used. There exists a global coordinate chart in which there is global equilibrium temperature while there exist other charts in which SDS behaves as though it has two different temperatures. The coordinate dependence of the thermal nature is reminiscent of the flat spacetime in Minkowski and Rindler coordinate charts. The implications are discussed.Comment: 12 page

Static black holes with a negative cosmological constant: Deformed horizon and anti-de Sitter boundaries

Using perturbative techniques, we investigate the existence and properties of a new static solution for the Einstein equation with a negative cosmological constant, which we call the deformed black hole. We derive a solution for a static and axisymmetric perturbation of the Schwarzschild-anti-de Sitter black hole that is regular in the range from the horizon to spacelike infinity. The key result is that this perturbation simultaneously deforms the two boundary surfaces--i.e., both the horizon and spacelike two-surface at infinity. Then we discuss the Abbott-Deser mass and the Ashtekar-Magnon one for the deformed black hole, and according to the Ashtekar-Magnon definition, we construct the thermodynamic first law of the deformed black hole. The first law has a correction term which can be interpreted as the work term that is necessary for the deformation of the boundary surfaces. Because the work term is negative, the horizon area of the deformed black hole becomes larger than that of the Schwarzschild-anti-de Sitter black hole, if compared under the same mass, indicating that the quasistatic deformation of the Schwarzschild-anti-de Sitter black hole may be compatible with the thermodynamic second law (i.e., the area theorem).Comment: 31 pages, 5 figures, one reference added, to be published in PR

Observational Constraints on Teleparallel Dark Energy

We use data from Type Ia Supernovae (SNIa), Baryon Acoustic Oscillations (BAO), and Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) observations to constrain the recently proposed teleparallel dark energy scenario based on the teleparallel equivalent of General Relativity, in which one adds a canonical scalar field, allowing also for a nonminimal coupling with gravity. Using the power-law, the exponential and the inverse hyperbolic cosine potential ansatzes, we show that the scenario is compatible with observations. In particular, the data favor a nonminimal coupling, and although the scalar field is canonical the model can describe both the quintessence and phantom regimes.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figures, version accepted by JCA