Demographic change and unemployment: what do macroeconometric models predict?

Declining natality and mortality are reshaping demographic patterns in most industrialized countries. We investigate the case of France where, after a few decades of sustained growth, active population is likely to stop growing and could eventually start decreasing. This will coincide with a boom for the retired population. The purpose of this paper is to examine the consequences of both phenomena for the labour market. We tackle the issue using two approaches: WS-PS models and Phillips curve models. Effects may be short or long-run; they may stem directly from changes in labour supply or from changes in contributions required to finance pensions. In this study, we bring them altogether using the macroeconometric model Mésange. We find that favorable effects can be expected in the short run. However, they are likely to be of a relatively small importance and transitory. In the medium and long run, the WS-PS framework suggests that increases in taxes induced by ageing could lead to more unemployment. This long run effect vanishes under the Phillips specification. On the whole, the final effect upon unemployment depends on agents' bargaining preferences during wage negotiations: the further from labor cost they negotiate (thus the closer to net income), the higher the risk that demographic change ultimately leads to more unemployment.ageing, labor market, macroeconomic models

Measures of implicit liabilities for pension systems: quantification, analytical properties and reactions to typical demographic shocks

The notion of implicit liabilities for pension systems can be interpreted in several ways. Two approaches are centered on benefits due to current pensioners or to be paid to current contributors: these two approaches are the method of accrued-to-date liabilities and the closed-group method. A third approach also includes prospective benefits and contributions for future cohorts of contributors: this approach is generally referred to as the method of open-system liabilities. This paper presents some indicative quantifications of these three approaches for French pensions. It also gives some analytical results concerning the steady state level of liabilities computed according to the first two approaches. We finally compare the behaviour of these three approaches under situations of stylized demographic change, i.e. a baby-boom and/or a continuous increase in life expectancy. These simulations confirm that the open system approach is more informative and more convenient when the question we are interested in is the question of long run sustainability, and not the question of prefunding of current entitlements.pensions, implicit debt, public finance

A diagnostic real-time PCR assay for the rapid identification of the tomato-potato psyllid, Bactericera cockerelli (Sulc, 1909) and development of a psyllid barcoding database

The accurate and rapid identification of insect pests is an important step in the prevention and control of outbreaks in areas that are otherwise pest free. The potato-tomato psyllid Bactericera cockerelli (Sulc, 1909) is the main vector of 'Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum' on potato and tomato crops in North America and New Zealand; and is considered a threat for introduction in Europe and other pest-free regions. This study describes the design and validation of the first species-specific TaqMan probe-based real-time PCR assay, targeting the ITS2 gene region of B. cockerelli. The assay detected B. cockerelli genomic DNA from adults, immatures, and eggs, with 100% accuracy. This assay also detected DNA from cloned plasmids containing the ITS2 region of B. cockerelli with 100% accuracy. The assay showed 0% false positives when tested on genomic and cloned DNA from 73 other psyllid species collected from across Europe, New Zealand, Mexico and the USA. This included 8 other species in the Bactericera genus and the main vectors of 'Candidatus Liberibacter solanacearum' worldwide. The limit of detection for this assay at optimum conditions was 0.000001ng DNA (similar to 200 copies) of ITS2 DNA which equates to around a 1:10000 dilution of DNA from one single adult specimen. This assay is the first real-time PCR based method for accurate, robust, sensitive and specific identification of B. cockerelli from all life stages. It can be used as a surveillance and monitoring tool to further study this important crop pest and to aid the prevention of outbreaks, or to prevent their spread after establishment in new areas

QUESADA, ELENA E HIJA [Material gráfico]

Copia digital. Madrid : Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte, 201

Meta-analysis reveals that pollinator functional diversity and abundance enhance crop pollination and yield

How insects promote crop pollination remains poorly understood in terms of the contribution of functional trait differences between species. We used meta-analyses to test for correlations between community abundance, species richness and functional trait metrics with oilseed rape yield, a globally important crop. While overall abundance is consistently important in predicting yield, functional divergence between species traits also showed a positive correlation. This result supports the complementarity hypothesis that pollination function is maintained by non-overlapping trait distributions. In artificially constructed communities (mesocosms), species richness is positively correlated with yield, although this effect is not seen under field conditions. As traits of the dominant species do not predict yield above that attributed to the effect of abundance alone, we find no evidence in support of the mass ratio hypothesis. Management practices increasing not just pollinator abundance, but also functional divergence, could benefit oilseed rape agriculture.This study was funded by the Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) under research programme NE/N018125/1 ASSIST–Achieving Sustainable Agricultural Systems www.assist.ceh.ac.uk. ASSIST is an initiative jointly supported by NERC and the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC). Additional funding for field studies was from the Wessex Biodiversity Ecosystem Services Sustainability (NE/J014680/1) project within the NERC BESS programme. Other data sets were generated from research funded by: (a) the Insect Pollinators Initiative programme funded by BBSRC, Defra, NERC, the Scottish Government and the Wellcome Trust, under the Living with Environmental Change Partnership; (b) Defra project BD5005: Provision of Ecosystem services in the ES scheme; and (c) Irish Government under the National Development Plan 2007–2013 administered by the Irish EPA

RETRATO SIN IDENTIFICAR [Material gráfico]

Copia digital. Madrid : Ministerio de Educación, Cultura y Deporte, 201

Cardiomyopathy and Response to Enzyme Replacement Therapy in a Male Mouse Model for Fabry Disease

Fabry disease is an X-linked disorder of glycosphingolipid metabolism that results in progressive accumulation of neutral glycosphingolipids, (predominately globotriaosylceramide; GL-3) in lysosomes, as well as other cellular compartments and the extracellular space. Our aim was to characterize the cardiac phenotype of male knock-out mice that are deficient in alpha-galactosidase A activity, as a model for Fabry disease and test the efficacy of Enzyme Replacement Therapy with agalsidase-beta. Male mice (3–4 months of age) were characterized with awake blood pressure and heart rate measurements, cardiac echocardiography and electrocardiography measurements under light anesthesia, histological studies and molecular studies with real-time polymerase chain reaction. The Fabry knock-out mouse has bradycardia and lower blood pressure than control wild type (CB7BL/6J) mice. In Fabry knock-out mice, the cardiomyopathy associated mild hypertrophy at echography with normal systolic LV function and mild diastolic dysfunction. Premature atrial contractions were more frequent in without conduction defect. Heart weight normalized to tibial length was increased in Fabry knock-out mice. Ascending aorta dilatation was observed. Molecular studies were consistent with early stages of cardiac remodeling. A single dose of agalsidase-beta (3 mg/kg) did not affect the LV hypertrophy, function or heart rate, but did improve the mRNA signals of early cardiac remodeling. In conclusion, the alpha-galactosidase A deficient mice at 3 to 4 months of age have cardiac and vascular alterations similar to that described in early clinical stage of Fabry disease in children and adolescents. Enzyme replacement therapy affects cardiac molecular remodeling after a single dose

Food for pollinators: quantifying the nectar and pollen resources of urban flower meadows

Planted meadows are increasingly used to improve the biodiversity and aesthetic amenity value of urban areas. Although many ‘pollinator-friendly’ seed mixes are available, the floral resources these provide to flower-visiting insects, and how these change through time, are largely unknown. Such data are necessary to compare the resources provided by alternative meadow seed mixes to each other and to other flowering habitats. We used quantitative surveys of over 2 million flowers to estimate the nectar and pollen resources offered by two exemplar commercial seed mixes (one annual, one perennial) and associated weeds grown as 300m2 meadows across four UK cities, sampled at six time points between May and September 2013. Nectar sugar and pollen rewards per flower varied widely across 65 species surveyed, with native British weed species (including dandelion, Taraxacum agg.) contributing the top five nectar producers and two of the top ten pollen producers. Seed mix species yielding the highest rewards per flower included Leontodon hispidus, Centaurea cyanus and C. nigra for nectar, and Papaver rhoeas, Eschscholzia californica and Malva moschata for pollen. Perennial meadows produced up to 20x more nectar and up to 6x more pollen than annual meadows, which in turn produced far more than amenity grassland controls. Perennial meadows produced resources earlier in the year than annual meadows, but both seed mixes delivered very low resource levels early in the year and these were provided almost entirely by native weeds. Pollen volume per flower is well predicted statistically by floral morphology, and nectar sugar mass and pollen volume per unit area are correlated with flower counts, raising the possibility that resource levels can be estimated for species or habitats where they cannot be measured directly. Our approach does not incorporate resource quality information (for example, pollen protein or essential amino acid content), but can easily do so when suitable data exist. Our approach should inform the design of new seed mixes to ensure continuity in floral resource availability throughout the year, and to identify suitable species to fill resource gaps in established mixes

Why are mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists cardioprotective?

Two clinical trials, the Randomized ALdosterone Evaluation Study (RALES) and the EPlerenone HEart failure and SUrvival Study (EPHESUS), have recently shown that mineralocorticoid receptor (MR) antagonists reduce mortality in patients with heart failure on top of ACE inhibition. This effect could not be attributed solely to blockade of the renal MR-mediated effects on blood pressure, and it has therefore been proposed that aldosterone, the endogenous MR agonist, also acts extrarenally, in particular in the heart. Indeed, MR are present in cardiac tissue, and possibly aldosterone synthesis occurs in the heart. This review critically addresses the following questions: (1) is aldosterone synthesized at cardiac tissue sites, (2) what agonist stimulates cardiac MR normally, and (3) what effects are mediated by aldosterone/MR in the heart that could explain the beneficial effects of MR blockade in heart failure? Conclusions are that most, if not all, of cardiac aldosterone originates in the circulation (i.e., is of adrenal origin), and that glucocorticoids, in addition to aldosterone, may serve as the endogenous agonist of cardiac MR. MR-mediated effects in the heart include effects on endothelial function, cardiac fibrosis and hypertrophy, oxidative stress, cardiac inotropy, coronary flow, and arrhythmias. Some of these effects occur via or in synergy with angiotensin II, and involve a non-MR-mediated mechanism. This raises the possibility that aldosterone synthase inhibitors might exert beneficial effects on top of MR blockade