Methane Fluxes from a High Intensity Seep Area west of Crimea, Black Sea

Methane seepage is a wide-spread phenomenon in the Black Sea with an increase in density and intensity west of the Crimea in the Paleo Dnepr area between 70 and 250m water depth. Within the EU funded project CRIMEA we studied the impact of high intensity seeps on the methane distribution in the water column and its possible transport into the atmosphere. Here we present data which allow flux calculations of free methane from an area of 1 by 1.23 miles between 80 and 95m water depth. Our calculations are based on direct and hydroacoustic flux measurements of single seeps or small-scaled seep areas (several m2); the spatial extrapolation of these fluxes use the very strong correlation between the bubble seep occurrence and a high backscattering seafloor; the temporal variability of bubble release was detected via the lander-based hydroacoustic system GasQuant.More than 1000 bubbling seep sites were identified during two cruises in 2003 and 2004 by hydroacoustic water column surveys. The hydroacoustic detection of bubbles uses the strong backscattering of the free gas phase caused by the great impedance difference of bubbles in water (equivalent to the detection of fish and their swim bladder). In echograms, bubble streams or even single bubbles can be detected, traced and used for special analyses such as bubble rising speed, bubble size and shrinking rates. Because of the flare-like appearance of bubble streams in echograms we call these features ’flares’.Parallel multi beam mapping allowed the detection of the seafloor morphology together with the spatial backscatter intensity of the seafloor. The combination of flare occurrences with high backscatter areas provided a very good correlation. Normalized, the backscatter ranged from -12.5 to 7.1 dB for an area of 4.23 km2. All seep positions plott in areas with more than -2.7 dB, which is almost the entire area of investigation (95.8 %). However, 75% of the flares occur within only 20.1% of the area, half of the flares occur in only 9.2% and 25% even occur in only 3.8% of the area with backscattering values above 2.4 dB. This correlation allows to predict and extrapolate active bubble seeps even without direct or hydroacoustic observations.One reason for the high backscattering seafloor are patches of carbonate cemented seafloor (formed via AOM) which typically occurs just below bright white Beggiatoa mats. In addition, high resolution seismic studies with a 5kHz sub-bottom profiler clearly show a shallow gas front in normally 3m sediment depth. In those areas where strong gas front reflectors dome up and reach the seafloor surface the backscatter values and flare density are the highest. This clearly shows that the bubbles released are fed from shallow gas which also might have an impact on the physical properties of the seafloor and its backscatter behaviour. Seeps in lower or even very low backscatter areas possibly indicate a rather young or weak activity which did not (so far) cause a remarkable carbonate cementation detectable during multi beam surveys.However, the backscatter data are the base for our spatial flux calculations which use direct bubble trapping to distinguish the flux rate from one single seep hole and hydroacoustic methods for small seep areas of several m2. Direct bubble flux measurements were performed with the submersible JAGO by trapping the bubbles with a funnel. Fluxes vary between 0.55 and 1.44 ml/s (or 1.98 to 5.18 l/h at in situ volume; or 0.24 to 0.64 mmol/s). Subsequent GC-based gas analyses onboard confirmed that the gas phase consists exclusively of methane. Visual observations by JAGO and towed camera systems showed bubble diameters between 1 and 15mm with typical sizes between 3 and 7mm. Together with bubble rising speeds of typically 25cm/s both attributes are in very good agreement with detailed hydroacoustic measurements using a dual frequency scientific echo sounder EK500 (120 and 38kHz). Flux estimat

Assessing NARCCAP climate model effects using spatial confidence regions

We assess similarities and differences between model effects for the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP) climate models using varying classes of linear regression models. Specifically, we consider how the average temperature effect differs for the various global and regional climate model combinations, including assessment of possible interaction between the effects of global and regional climate models. We use both pointwise and simultaneous inference procedures to identify regions where global and regional climate model effects differ. We also show conclusively that results from pointwise inference are misleading, and that accounting for multiple comparisons is important for making proper inference

Sequence alignment, mutual information, and dissimilarity measures for constructing phylogenies

Existing sequence alignment algorithms use heuristic scoring schemes which cannot be used as objective distance metrics. Therefore one relies on measures like the p- or log-det distances, or makes explicit, and often simplistic, assumptions about sequence evolution. Information theory provides an alternative, in the form of mutual information (MI) which is, in principle, an objective and model independent similarity measure. MI can be estimated by concatenating and zipping sequences, yielding thereby the "normalized compression distance". So far this has produced promising results, but with uncontrolled errors. We describe a simple approach to get robust estimates of MI from global pairwise alignments. Using standard alignment algorithms, this gives for animal mitochondrial DNA estimates that are strikingly close to estimates obtained from the alignment free methods mentioned above. Our main result uses algorithmic (Kolmogorov) information theory, but we show that similar results can also be obtained from Shannon theory. Due to the fact that it is not additive, normalized compression distance is not an optimal metric for phylogenetics, but we propose a simple modification that overcomes the issue of additivity. We test several versions of our MI based distance measures on a large number of randomly chosen quartets and demonstrate that they all perform better than traditional measures like the Kimura or log-det (resp. paralinear) distances. Even a simplified version based on single letter Shannon entropies, which can be easily incorporated in existing software packages, gave superior results throughout the entire animal kingdom. But we see the main virtue of our approach in a more general way. For example, it can also help to judge the relative merits of different alignment algorithms, by estimating the significance of specific alignments.Comment: 19 pages + 16 pages of supplementary materia

A Very Intense Neutrino Super Beam Experiment for Leptonic CP Violation Discovery based on the European Spallation Source Linac: A Snowmass 2013 White Paper

Very intense neutrino beams and large neutrino detectors will be needed in order to enable the discovery of CP violation in the leptonic sector. We propose to use the proton linac of the European Spallation Source currently under construction in Lund, Sweden to deliver, in parallel with the spallation neutron production, a very intense, cost effective and high performance neutrino beam. The baseline program for the European Spallation Source linac is that it will be fully operational at 5 MW average power by 2022, producing 2 GeV 2.86 ms long proton pulses at a rate of 14 Hz. Our proposal is to upgrade the linac to 10 MW average power and 28 Hz, producing 14 pulses/s for neutron production and 14 pulses/s for neutrino production. Furthermore, because of the high current required in the pulsed neutrino horn, the length of the pulses used for neutrino production needs to be compressed to a few $\mu$s with the aid of an accumulator ring. A long baseline experiment using this Super Beam and a megaton underground Water Cherenkov detector located in existing mines 300-600 km from Lund will make it possible to discover leptonic CP violation at 5 $\sigma$ significance level in up to 50% of the leptonic Dirac CP-violating phase range. This experiment could also determine the neutrino mass hierarchy at a significance level of more than 3 $\sigma$ if this issue will not already have been settled by other experiments by then. The mass hierarchy performance could be increased by combining the neutrino beam results with those obtained from atmospheric neutrinos detected by the same large volume detector. This detector will also be used to measure the proton lifetime, detect cosmological neutrinos and neutrinos from supernova explosions. Results on the sensitivity to leptonic CP violation and the neutrino mass hierarchy are presented.Comment: 28 page

Motivation as a predictor of outcomes in school-based humanistic counselling

Recent years have seen a growth in the provision of counselling within UK secondary schools, and research indicates that it is associated with significant reductions in psychological distress. However, little is known about the moderators and mediators of positive therapeutic benefit. In the field of adult mental health, motivation has been found to be one of the strongest predictors of therapeutic outcomes, and it was hypothesised that this may also be a predictor of outcomes for young people in school-based counselling services. To assess the relationship between young people’s motivation for counselling and its effectiveness within a secondary school setting. Eighty-one young people (12 - 17 years old) who attended school-based humanistic counselling services in Scotland. Clients completed a measure of motivation for counselling at the commencement of their therapeutic work and a measure of psychological wellbeing at the commencement and termination of counselling. Motivation for counselling was not found to be significantly related to outcomes. The results indicate that the association between motivation and outcomes may be weaker in young people as compared with adults. However, a number of design factors may also account for the non-significant findings: insufficient participants, marginal reliability of the motivation measure and social desirability effects

CSI 2264: Accretion process in classical T Tauri stars in the young cluster NGC 2264

Context. NGC 2264 is a young stellar cluster (~3 Myr) with hundreds of low-mass accreting stars that allow a detailed analysis of the accretion process taking place in the pre-main sequence. Aims. Our goal is to relate the photometric and spectroscopic variability of classical T Tauri stars to the physical processes acting in the stellar and circumstellar environment, within a few stellar radii from the star. Methods. NGC 2264 was the target of a multiwavelength observational campaign with CoRoT, MOST, Spitzer, and Chandra satellites and photometric and spectroscopic observations from the ground. We classified the CoRoT light curves of accreting systems according to their morphology and compared our classification to several accretion diagnostics and disk parameters. Results. The morphology of the CoRoT light curve reflects the evolution of the accretion process and of the inner disk region. Accretion burst stars present high mass-accretion rates and optically thick inner disks. AA Tau-like systems, whose light curves are dominated by circumstellar dust obscuration, show intermediate mass-accretion rates and are located in the transition of thick to anemic disks. Classical T Tauri stars with spot-like light curves correspond mostly to systems with a low mass-accretion rate and low mid-IR excess. About 30% of the classical T Tauri stars observed in the 2008 and 2011 CoRoT runs changed their light-curve morphology. Transitions from AA Tau-like and spot-like to aperiodic light curves and vice versa were common. The analysis of the Hα emission line variability of 58 accreting stars showed that 8 presented a periodicity that in a few cases was coincident with the photometric period. The blue and red wings of the Hα line profiles often do not correlate with each other, indicating that they are strongly influenced by different physical processes. Classical T Tauri stars have a dynamic stellar and circumstellar environment that can be explained by magnetospheric accretion and outflow models, including variations from stable to unstable accretion regimes on timescales of a few years

CSI 2264 : accretion process in classical T Tauri stars in the young cluster NGC 2264

APS and SHPA acknowledge support from CNPq, CAPES and Fapemig. JFG acknowledges support from FCT ref project UID/FIS/04434/2013.Context. NGC 2264 is a young stellar cluster (~3 Myr) with hundreds of low-mass accreting stars that allow a detailed analysis of the accretion process taking place in the pre-main sequence. Aims. Our goal is to relate the photometric and spectroscopic variability of classical T Tauri stars to the physical processes acting in the stellar and circumstellar environment, within a few stellar radii from the star. Methods. NGC 2264 was the target of a multiwavelength observational campaign with CoRoT, MOST, Spitzer, and Chandra satellites and photometric and spectroscopic observations from the ground. We classified the CoRoT light curves of accreting systems according to their morphology and compared our classification to several accretion diagnostics and disk parameters. Results. The morphology of the CoRoT light curve reflects the evolution of the accretion process and of the inner disk region. Accretion burst stars present high mass-accretion rates and optically thick inner disks. AA Tau-like systems, whose light curves are dominated by circumstellar dust obscuration, show intermediate mass-accretion rates and are located in the transition of thick to anemic disks. Classical T Tauri stars with spot-like light curves correspond mostly to systems with a low mass-accretion rate and low mid-IR excess. About 30% of the classical T Tauri stars observed inthe 2008 and 2011 CoRoT runs changed their light-curve morphology.Transitions from AA Tau-like and spot-like to a periodic light curves and vice versa were common. The analysis of the Hα emission line variability of 58 accreting stars showed that 8 presented a periodicity that in a few cases was coincident with the photometric period. The blue and red wings of the Hα line profiles often do not correlate with each other, indicating that they are strongly influenced by different physical processes. Classical T Tauri stars have a dynamic stellar and circumstellar environment that can be explained by magnetospheric accretion and outflow models, including variations from stable to unstable accretion regimes on timescales of a few years.PostprintPeer reviewe

A focused telephonic nursing intervention delivers improved adherence to A1c testing

Compliance with hemoglobin A1c (A1c) testing is suboptimal despite the clear national recommendations and guidelines established for care of patients with diabetes. Recent studies have demonstrated a relationship between participation in a diabetes disease management (DM) program and improved adherence to A1c testing. A focused intervention study was initiated to investigate the ability of a DM program to drive improvement in A1c testing. A cohort of 36,327 members experienced a statistically significant increase (29%) in A1c testing while participating in the 6-month focused intervention. This finding demonstrated that a focused DM intervention is able to deliver improvement in a clinical process metric critical for managing patients with diabetes, thereby reducing their risk of disease exacerbation

CSI 2264: Probing the inner disks of AA Tauri-like systems in NGC 2264

Context. The classical T Tauri star (CTTS) AA Tau has presented photometric variability that was attributed to an inner disk warp, caused by the interaction between the inner disk and an inclined magnetosphere. Previous studies of the young cluster NGC 2264 have shown that similar photometric behavior is common among CTTS. Aims. The goal of this work is to investigate the main causes of the observed photometric variability of CTTS in NGC 2264 that present AA Tau-like light curves, and verify if an inner disk warp could be responsible for their observed variability. Methods. In order to understand the mechanism causing these stars’ photometric behavior, we investigate veiling variability in their spectra and u − r color variations and estimate parameters of the inner disk warp using an occultation model proposed for AA Tau. We also compare infrared Spitzer IRAC and optical CoRoT light curves to analyze the dust responsible for the occultations. Results. AA Tau-like variability proved to be transient on a timescale of a few years. We ascribe this variability to stable accretion regimes and aperiodic variability to unstable accretion regimes and show that a transition, and even coexistence, between the two is common. We find evidence of hot spots associated with occultations, indicating that the occulting structures could be located at the base of accretion columns. We find average values of warp maximum height of 0.23 times its radial location, consistent with AA Tau, with variations of on average 11% between rotation cycles. We also show that extinction laws in the inner disk indicate the presence of grains larger than interstellar grains. Conclusions. The inner disk warp scenario is consistent with observations for all but one star with AA Tau-like variability in our sample. AA Tau-like systems are fairly common, comprising 14% of CTTS observed in NGC 2264, though this number increases to 35% among systems of mass 0.7 M_⊙ ≲ M ≲ 2.0 M_⊙. Assuming random inclinations, we estimate that nearly all systems in this mass range likely possess an inner disk warp. We attribute this to a possible change in magnetic field configurations among stars of lower mass

Beam instrumentation for the Tevatron Collider

The Tevatron in Collider Run II (2001-present) is operating with six times more bunches and many times higher beam intensities and luminosities than in Run I (1992-1995). Beam diagnostics were crucial for the machine start-up and the never-ending luminosity upgrade campaign. We present the overall picture of the Tevatron diagnostics development for Run II, outline machine needs for new instrumentation, present several notable examples that led to Tevatron performance improvements, and discuss the lessons for future colliders