Time series prediction via aggregation : an oracle bound including numerical cost

We address the problem of forecasting a time series meeting the Causal Bernoulli Shift model, using a parametric set of predictors. The aggregation technique provides a predictor with well established and quite satisfying theoretical properties expressed by an oracle inequality for the prediction risk. The numerical computation of the aggregated predictor usually relies on a Markov chain Monte Carlo method whose convergence should be evaluated. In particular, it is crucial to bound the number of simulations needed to achieve a numerical precision of the same order as the prediction risk. In this direction we present a fairly general result which can be seen as an oracle inequality including the numerical cost of the predictor computation. The numerical cost appears by letting the oracle inequality depend on the number of simulations required in the Monte Carlo approximation. Some numerical experiments are then carried out to support our findings

Molecular Cloning and Analysis of the Tryptophan oxygenase Gene in the Silkworm, Bombyx mori

A Bombyx mori L. (Lepidoptera: Bombycidae) gene encoding tryptophan oxygenase has been molecularly cloned and analyzed. The tryptophan oxygenase cDNA had 1374 nucleotides that encoded a 401 amino acid protein with an estimated molecular mass of 46.47 kDa and a PI of 5.88. RT-PCR analysis showed that the B. mori tryptophan oxygenase gene was transcribed in all examined stages. Tryptophan oxygenase proteins are relatively well conserved among different orders of arthropods

Facing others’ misfortune: Personal distress mediates the association between maladaptive emotion regulation and social avoidance

Previous research has linked the use of certain emotion regulation strategies to the vicarious experience of personal distress (PD) and empathic concern (EC). However, it has not been tested yet whether (1) vicarious PD is positively associated with maladaptive emotion regulation strategies, (2) vicarious EC is positively associated with adaptive emotion regulation strategies and whether (3) PD and EC mediate the link between emotion regulation and reports of approach/avoidance in response to a person in distress. To that aim, we assessed people’s reports of PD (i.e., anxious, troubled, and upset) and EC (i.e., concerned, sympathetic, and soft-hearted) in response to a video depicting a person in a threatening situation (n = 78). Afterwards, we assessed participants’ reports of avoidance and approach in regards to the character and their disposition to use maladaptive and adaptive emotion regulation strategies. Results showed that PD as well as EC were positively related to maladaptive strategies and negatively related to adaptive strategies, and that the association between maladaptive regulation strategies (i.e., rumination) and the willingness to avoid the person in distress was mediated by greater reports of PD. This study thus expands previous evidence on the relationship between maladaptive regulation strategies and affective empathy and provides novel insights about the main role that personal distress played in the association between maladaptive strategies and social avoidance

Tradeoff Between Stability and Multispecificity in the Design of Promiscuous Proteins

Natural proteins often partake in several highly specific protein-protein interactions. They are thus subject to multiple opposing forces during evolutionary selection. To be functional, such multispecific proteins need to be stable in complex with each interaction partner, and, at the same time, to maintain affinity toward all partners. How is this multispecificity acquired through natural evolution? To answer this compelling question, we study a prototypical multispecific protein, calmodulin (CaM), which has evolved to interact with hundreds of target proteins. Starting from high-resolution structures of sixteen CaM-target complexes, we employ state-of-the-art computational methods to predict a hundred CaM sequences best suited for interaction with each individual CaM target. Then, we design CaM sequences most compatible with each possible combination of two, three, and all sixteen targets simultaneously, producing almost 70,000 low energy CaM sequences. By comparing these sequences and their energies, we gain insight into how nature has managed to find the compromise between the need for favorable interaction energies and the need for multispecificity. We observe that designing for more partners simultaneously yields CaM sequences that better match natural sequence profiles, thus emphasizing the importance of such strategies in nature. Furthermore, we show that the CaM binding interface can be nicely partitioned into positions that are critical for the affinity of all CaM-target complexes and those that are molded to provide interaction specificity. We reveal several basic categories of sequence-level tradeoffs that enable the compromise necessary for the promiscuity of this protein. We also thoroughly quantify the tradeoff between interaction energetics and multispecificity and find that facilitating seemingly competing interactions requires only a small deviation from optimal energies. We conclude that multispecific proteins have been subjected to a rigorous optimization process that has fine-tuned their sequences for interactions with a precise set of targets, thus conferring their multiple cellular functions

PoPMuSiC 2.1: a web server for the estimation of protein stability changes upon mutation and sequence optimality

ABSTRACT:Journal ArticleSCOPUS: ar.jinfo:eu-repo/semantics/publishe

Laboratory demonstration of a prozone-like effect in HRP2-detecting malaria rapid diagnostic tests: implications for clinical management

Background: Malaria rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) are now widely used for prompt on-site diagnosis in remote endemic areas where reliable microscopy is absent. Aberrant results, whereby negative test results occur at high parasite densities, have been variously reported for over a decade and have led to questions regarding the reliability of the tests in clinical use. Methods. In the first trial, serial dilutions of recombinant HRP2 antigen were tested on an HRP2-detectiing RDT. In a second trial, serial dilutions of culture-derived Plasmodium falciparum parasites were tested against three HRP2-detecting RDTs. Results: A prozone-like effect occurred in RDTs at a high concentration of the target antigen, histidine-rich protein-2 (above 15,000 ng/ml), a level that corresponds to more than 312000 parasites per L. Similar results were noted on three RDT products using dilutions of cultured parasites up to a parasite density of 25%. While reduced line intensity was observed, no false negative results occurred. Conclusions: These results suggest that false-negative malaria RDT results will rarely occur due to a prozone-like effect in high-density infections, and other causes are more likely. However, RDT line intensity is poorly indicative of parasite density in high-density infections and RDTs should, therefore, not be considered quantitative. Immediate management of suspected severe malaria should rely on clinical assessment or microscopy. Evaluation against high concentrations of antigen should be considered in malaria RDT product development and lot-release testing, to ensure that very weak or false negative results will not occur at antigen concentrations that might be seen clinically

A Cellular Potts Model simulating cell migration on and in matrix environments

Cell migration on and through extracellular matrix plays a critical role in a wide variety of physiological and pathological phenomena, and in scaffold-based tissue engineering. Migration is regulated by a number of extracellular matrix- or cell-derived biophysical parameters, such as matrix fiber orientation, gap size, and elasticity, or cell deformation, proteolysis, and adhesion. We here present an extended Cellular Potts Model (CPM) able to qualitatively and quantitatively describe cell migratory phenotype on both two-dimensional substrates and within three-dimensional environments, in a close comparison with experimental evidence. As distinct features of our approach, the cells are represented by compartmentalized discrete objects, differentiated in the nucleus and in the cytosolic region, while the extracellular matrix is composed of a fibrous mesh and of a homogeneous fluid. Our model provides a strong correlation of the directionality of migration with the topological ECM distribution and, further, a biphasic dependence of migration on the matrix density, and in part adhesion, in both two-dimensional and three-dimensional settings. Moreover, we demonstrate that the directional component of cell movement is strongly correlated with the topological distribution of the ECM fibrous network. In the three-dimensional networks, we also investigate the effects of the matrix mechanical microstructure, observing that, at a given distribution of fibers, cell motility has a subtle bimodal relation with the elasticity of the scaffold. Finally, cell locomotion requires deformation of the cell's nucleus and/or cell-derived proteolysis of steric fibrillar obstacles within rather rigid matrices characterized by small pores, not, however, for sufficiently large pores. In conclusion, we here propose a mathematical modeling approach that serves to characterize cell migration as a biological phenomen in health, disease and tissue engineering applications. The research that led to the present paper was partially supported by a grant of the group GNFM of INdA

Concomitant use of tamoxifen with radiotherapy enhances subcutaneous breast fibrosis in hypersensitive patients

Concomitant use of adjuvant tamoxifen (TAM) and radiation therapy (RT) is not widely accepted. We aim to assess whether this treatment is associated with an increased risk of developing subcutaneous fibrosis after conservative or radical surgery in breast cancer patients. We analysed 147 women with breast cancer treated with adjuvant RT, and who were included in the KFS 00539-9-1997/SKL 00778-2-1999 prospective study aimed at evaluating the predictive value of CD4 and CD8 T-lymphocyte apoptosis for the development of radiation-induced late effects. TAM (20 mg day(-1)) with concomitant RT was prescribed in 90 hormone receptor-positive patients. There was a statistically significant difference in terms of complication-relapse-free survival (CRFS) rates at 3 years, 48% (95% CI 37.2-57.6%) vs 66% (95% CI 49.9-78.6%) and complication-free survival (CFS) rates at 2 years, 51% (95% CI 40-61%) vs 80% (95% CI 67-89%) in the TAM and no-TAM groups, respectively. In each of these groups, the CRFS rates were significantly lower for patients with low levels of CD8 radiation-induced apoptosis, 20% (95% CI 10-31.9%), 66% (95% CI 51.1-77.6%), and 79% (95% CI 55-90.9%) for CD8 </=16, 16-24, and >24%, respectively. Similar results were observed for the CFS rates. The concomitant use of TAM with RT is significantly associated with an increased incidence of grade 2 or greater subcutaneous fibrosis; therefore, caution is needed for radiosensitive patients

How Protein Stability and New Functions Trade Off

Numerous studies have noted that the evolution of new enzymatic specificities is accompanied by loss of the protein's thermodynamic stability (ΔΔG), thus suggesting a tradeoff between the acquisition of new enzymatic functions and stability. However, since most mutations are destabilizing (ΔΔG>0), one should ask how destabilizing mutations that confer new or altered enzymatic functions relative to all other mutations are. We applied ΔΔG computations by FoldX to analyze the effects of 548 mutations that arose from the directed evolution of 22 different enzymes. The stability effects, location, and type of function-altering mutations were compared to ΔΔG changes arising from all possible point mutations in the same enzymes. We found that mutations that modulate enzymatic functions are mostly destabilizing (average ΔΔG = +0.9 kcal/mol), and are almost as destabilizing as the “average” mutation in these enzymes (+1.3 kcal/mol). Although their stability effects are not as dramatic as in key catalytic residues, mutations that modify the substrate binding pockets, and thus mediate new enzymatic specificities, place a larger stability burden than surface mutations that underline neutral, non-adaptive evolutionary changes. How are the destabilizing effects of functional mutations balanced to enable adaptation? Our analysis also indicated that many mutations that appear in directed evolution variants with no obvious role in the new function exert stabilizing effects that may compensate for the destabilizing effects of the crucial function-altering mutations. Thus, the evolution of new enzymatic activities, both in nature and in the laboratory, is dependent on the compensatory, stabilizing effect of apparently “silent” mutations in regions of the protein that are irrelevant to its function