Dynamic maps: a visual-analytic methodology for exploring spatio-temporal disease patterns

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Epidemiologic studies are often confounded by the human and environmental interactions that are complex and dynamic spatio-temporal processes. Hence, it is difficult to discover nuances in the data and generate pertinent hypotheses. Dynamic mapping, a method to simultaneously visualize temporal and spatial information, was introduced to elucidate such complexities. A conceptual framework for dynamic mapping regarding principles and implementation methods was proposed.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The spatio-temporal dynamics of <it>Salmonella </it>infections for 2002 in the U.S. elderly were depicted via dynamic mapping. Hospitalization records were obtained from the Centers of Medicare and Medicaid Services. To visualize the spatial relationship, hospitalization rates were computed and superimposed onto maps of environmental exposure factors including livestock densities and ambient temperatures. To visualize the temporal relationship, the resultant maps were composed into a movie.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The dynamic maps revealed that the <it>Salmonella </it>infections peaked at specific spatio-temporal loci: more clusters were observed in the summer months and higher density of such clusters in the South. The peaks were reached when the average temperatures were greater than 83.4°F (28.6°C). Although the relationship of salmonellosis rates and occurrence of temperature anomalies was non-uniform, a strong synchronization was found between high broiler chicken sales and dense clusters of cases in the summer.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Dynamic mapping is a practical visual-analytic technique for public health practitioners and has an outstanding potential in providing insights into spatio-temporal processes such as revealing outbreak origins, percolation and travelling waves of the diseases, peak timing of seasonal outbreaks, and persistence of disease clusters.</p

Models of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) initial conversion by yeasts

The original models of the initial steps of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene (TNT) conversion by yeasts are presented. Saccharomyces sp. ZS-A1 reduced nitro groups of TNT producing isomeric monohydroxylaminodinitrotoluenes (HADNT) as the key initial metabolites (molar ratio HADNT/TNT was up to 0.81), whereas aminodinitrotoluenes (ADNT) and the hydride-Meisenheimer complex of TNT (H-TNT) were the minor products. Conversely, Candida sp. AN-L13 transformed TNT almost quantitatively into H-TNT, thus realizing the alternative attack, consisting of the TNT aromatic ring reduction. The third type of conversion, revealed in Candida sp. AN-L14, is the combination of both above mechanisms and produces an equimolar mix of HADNT and H-TNT. In the toxicity tests with Paramecium caudatum, the supernatant of Saccharomyces sp. ZS-A1, which converts TNT into HADNT, was most toxic while the supernatant of Candida sp. AN-L13 (TNT→H-TNT) was least toxic. The microorganisms converting TNT quantitatively to the reactive metabolites can be useful for their immobilization through the detoxifying interaction with the soil components such as humic compounds. © 2002 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved

Deviations in influenza seasonality: odd coincidence or obscure consequence?

AbstractIn temperate regions, influenza typically arrives with the onset of colder weather. Seasonal waves travel over large spaces covering many climatic zones in a relatively short period of time. The precise mechanism for this striking seasonal pattern is still not well understood, and the interplay of factors that influence the spread of infection and the emergence of new strains is largely unknown. The study of influenza seasonality has been fraught with problems. One of these is the ever-shifting description of illness resulting from influenza and the use of both the historical definitions and new definitions based on actual isolation of the virus. The compilation of records describing influenza oscillations on a local and global scale is massive, but the value of these data is a function of the definitions used. In this review, we argue that observations of both seasonality and deviation from the expected pattern stem from the nature of this disease. Heterogeneity in seasonal patterns may arise from differences in the behaviour of specific strains, the emergence of a novel strain, or cross-protection from previously observed strains. Most likely, the seasonal patterns emerge from interactions of individual factors behaving as coupled resonators. We emphasize that both seasonality and deviations from it may merely be reflections of our inability to disentangle signal from noise, because of ambiguity in measurement and/or terminology. We conclude the review with suggestions for new promising and realistic directions with tangible consequences for the modelling of complex influenza dynamics in order to effectively control infection

Visual Analytics for Epidemiologists: Understanding the Interactions Between Age, Time, and Disease with Multi-Panel Graphs

Visual analytics, a technique aiding data analysis and decision making, is a novel tool that allows for a better understanding of the context of complex systems. Public health professionals can greatly benefit from this technique since context is integral in disease monitoring and biosurveillance. We propose a graphical tool that can reveal the distribution of an outcome by time and age simultaneously.We introduce and demonstrate multi-panel (MP) graphs applied in four different settings: U.S. national influenza-associated and salmonellosis-associated hospitalizations among the older adult population (≥65 years old), 1991-2004; confirmed salmonellosis cases reported to the Massachusetts Department of Public Health for the general population, 2004-2005; and asthma-associated hospital visits for children aged 0-18 at Milwaukee Children's Hospital of Wisconsin, 1997-2006. We illustrate trends and anomalies that otherwise would be obscured by traditional visualization techniques such as case pyramids and time-series plots.MP graphs can weave together two vital dynamics--temporality and demographics--that play important roles in the distribution and spread of diseases, making these graphs a powerful tool for public health and disease biosurveillance efforts

Three Dimensional Relativistic Electromagnetic Sub-cycle Solitons

Three dimensional (3D) relativistic electromagnetic sub-cycle solitons were observed in 3D Particle-in-Cell simulations of an intense short laser pulse propagation in an underdense plasma. Their structure resembles that of an oscillating electric dipole with a poloidal electric field and a toroidal magnetic field that oscillate in-phase with the electron density with frequency below the Langmuir frequency. On the ion time scale the soliton undergoes a Coulomb explosion of its core, resulting in ion acceleration, and then evolves into a slowly expanding quasi-neutral cavity.Comment: 5 pages, 6 figures; http://www.ile.osaka-u.ac.jp/research/TSI/Timur/soliton/index.htm

Numerical Modeling of Radiation-Dominated and QED-Strong Regimes of Laser-Plasma Interaction

Ultra-strong laser pulses can be so intense that an electron in the focused beam loses significant energy due to gamma-photon emission while its motion deviates via the radiation back-reaction. Numerical methods and tools designed to simulate radiation-dominated and QED-strong laser-plasma interactions are summarized here.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Recent Diarrhea is Associated with Elevated Salivary IgG Responses to Cryptosporidium in Residents of an Eastern Massachusetts Community

BACKGROUND: Serological data suggest that Cryptosporidium infections are common but underreported. The invasiveness of blood sampling limits the application of serology in epidemiological surveillance. We pilot-tested a non-invasive salivary anti-Cryptosporidium antibody assay in a community survey involving children and adults. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Families with children were recruited in a Massachusetts community in July; symptoms data were collected at 3 monthly follow-up mail surveys. One saliva sample per person (n = 349) was collected via mail, with the last survey in October. Samples were analyzed for IgG and IgA responses to a recombinant C. hominis gp15 sporozoite protein using a time-resolved fluorometric immunoassay. Log-transformed assay results were regressed on age using penalized B-splines to account for the strong age-dependence of antibody reactions. Positive responses were defined as fluorescence values above the upper 99% prediction limit. RESULTS: Forty-seven (13.5%) individuals had diarrhea without concurrent respiratory symptoms during the 3-month-long follow-up; eight of them had these symptoms during the month prior to saliva sampling. Two individuals had positive IgG responses: an adult who had diarrhea during the prior month and a child who had episodes of diarrhea during each survey month (Fisher\u27s exact test for an association between diarrhea and IgG response: p = 0.0005 for symptoms during the prior month and p = 0.02 for symptoms during the entire follow-up period). The child also had a positive IgA response, along with two asymptomatic individuals (an association between diarrhea and IgA was not significant). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that the salivary IgG specific to Cryptosporidium antigens warrants further evaluation as a potential indicator of recent infections

Using random networks to study the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Spanish region of Valencia

[EN] Seasonal fluctuations in the incidence of several respiratory infections are a feature of epidemiological surveys all around the world. This phenomenon is characteristic of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus pandemics. However, the explanation of the seasonal outbreaks of these diseases remains poorly understood. Many statistical studies have been carried out in order to provide a correlation of the outbreaks with climatic or social factors without achieving a definitive conclusion. Here we show that, in a random social network, self-sustained seasonal epidemics emerge as a process modulated by the infection probability and the immunity period after recovering from the infection. This is a purely endogenous phenomenon that does not require any exogenous forcing. Assuming that this is the dominant mechanism for seasonal epidemics, many implications for public health policies for infectious respiratory diseases could be drawn. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.Supported by a grant from the Universidad Politecnica de Valencia PAID-06-09 ref: 2588.Acedo Rodríguez, L.; Moraño Fernández, JA.; Villanueva Micó, RJ.; Villanueva Oller, FJ.; Díez Domingo, J. (2011). Using random networks to study the dynamics of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) in the Spanish region of Valencia. Mathematical and Computer Modelling. 54(7-8):1650-1654. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.mcm.2010.11.068S16501654547-

Mapping of periodically poled crystals via spontaneous parametric down-conversion

A new method for characterization of periodically poled crystals is developed based on spontaneous parametric down-conversion. The method is demonstrated on crystals of Y:LiNbO3, Mg:Y:LiNbO3 with non-uniform periodically poled structures, obtained directly under Czochralski growth procedure and designed for application of OPO in the mid infrared range. Infrared dispersion of refractive index, effective working periods and wavelengths of OPO were determined by special treatment of frequency-angular spectra of spontaneous parametric down-conversion in the visible range. Two-dimensional mapping via spontaneous parametric down-conversion is proposed for characterizing spatial distribution of bulk quasi-phase matching efficiency across the input window of a periodically poled sample.Comment: 19 pages, 6 figure

Dynamics of Emitting Electrons in Strong Electromagnetic Fields

We derive a modified non-perturbative Lorentz-Abraham-Dirac equation. It satisfies the proper conservation laws, particularly, it conserves the generalized momentum, the latter property eliminates the symmetry-breaking runaway solution. The equation allows a consistent calculation of the electron current, the radiation effect on the electron momentum, and the radiation itself, for a single electron or plasma electrons in strong electromagnetic fields. The equation is applied to a simulation of a strong laser pulse interaction with a plasma target. Some analytical solutions are also provided.Comment: The original form of this paper was submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett. on August 3, 2008. The current version of the paper is substantially extended and includes modifications resulting from points raised during the review proces