The static stress change triggering model: Constraints from two southern California aftershock sequences

Static stress change has been proposed as a mechanism of earthquake triggering. We quantitatively evaluate this model for the apparent triggering of aftershocks by the 1992 M_W 7.3 Landers and 1994 M_W 6.7 Northridge earthquakes. Specifically, we test whether the fraction of aftershocks consistent with static stress change triggering is greater than the fraction of random events which would appear consistent by chance. Although static stress changes appear useful in explaining the triggering of some aftershocks, the model's capability to explain aftershock occurrence varies significantly between sequences. The model works well for Landers aftershocks. Approximately 85% of events between 5 and 75 km distance from the mainshock fault plane are consistent with static stress change triggering, compared to ∼50% of random events. The minimum distance is probably controlled by limitations of the modeling, while the maximum distance may be because static stress changes of <0.01 MPa trigger too few events to be detected. The static stress change triggering model, however, can not explain the first month of the Northridge aftershock sequence significantly better than it explains a set of random events. The difference between the Landers and Northridge sequences may result from differences in fault strength, with static stress changes being a more significant fraction of the failure stress of weak Landers-area faults. Tectonic regime, regional stress levels, and fault strength may need to be incorporated into the static stress change triggering model before it can be used reliably for seismic hazard assessment

Size distribution of Parkfield's microearthquakes reflects changes in surface creep rate

The nucleation area of the series of M6 events in Parkfield has been shown to be characterized by low b-values throughout the seismic cycle. Since low b-values represent high differential stresses, the asperity structure seems to be always stably stressed and even unaffected by the latest main shock in 2004. However, because fault loading rates and applied shear stress vary with time, some degree of temporal variability of the b-value within stable blocks is to be expected. We discuss in this study adequate techniques and uncertainty treatment for a detailed analysis of the temporal evolution of b-values. We show that the derived signal for the Parkfield asperity correlates with changes in surface creep, suggesting a sensitive time resolution of the b-value stress meter, and confirming near-critical loading conditions within the Parkfield asperit

White patients’ physical responses to healthcare treatments are influenced by provider race and gender

The healthcare workforce in the United States is becoming increasingly diverse, gradually shifting society away from the historical overrepresentation of White men among physicians. However, given the long-standing underrepresentation of people of color and women in the medical field, patients may still associate the concept of doctors with White men and may be physiologically less responsive to treatment administered by providers from other backgrounds. To investigate this, we varied the race and gender of the provider from which White patients received identical treatment for allergic reactions and measured patients’ improvement in response to this treatment, thus isolating how a provider’s demographic characteristics shape physical responses to healthcare. A total of 187 White patients experiencing a laboratory-induced allergic reaction interacted with a healthcare provider who applied a treatment cream and told them it would relieve their allergic reaction. Unbeknownst to the patients, the cream was inert (an unscented lotion) and interactions were completely standardized except for the provider’s race and gender. Patients were randomly assigned to interact with a provider who was a man or a woman and Asian, Black, or White. A fully blinded research assistant measured the change in the size of patients’ allergic reaction after cream administration. Results indicated that White patients showed a weaker response to the standardized treatment over time when it was administered by women or Black providers. We explore several potential explanations for these varied physiological treatment responses and discuss the implications of problematic race and gender dynamics that can endure “under the skin,” even for those who aim to be bias free

Aftershock Sequences Modeled with 3-D Stress Heterogeneity and Rate-State Seismicity Equations: Implications for Crustal Stress Estimation

In this paper, we present a model for studying aftershock sequences that integrates Coulomb static stress change analysis, seismicity equations based on rate-state friction nucleation of earthquakes, slip of geometrically complex faults, and fractal-like, spatially heterogeneous models of crustal stress. In addition to modeling instantaneous aftershock seismicity rate patterns with initial clustering on the Coulomb stress increase areas and an approximately 1/t diffusion back to the pre-mainshock background seismicity, the simulations capture previously unmodeled effects. These include production of a significant number of aftershocks in the traditional Coulomb stress shadow zones and temporal changes in aftershock focal mechanism statistics. The occurrence of aftershock stress shadow zones arises from two sources. The first source is spatially heterogeneous initial crustal stress, and the second is slip on geometrically rough faults, which produces localized positive Coulomb stress changes within the traditional stress shadow zones. Temporal changes in simulated aftershock focal mechanisms result in inferred stress rotations that greatly exceed the true stress rotations due to the main shock, even for a moderately strong crust (mean stress 50 MPa) when stress is spatially heterogeneous. This arises from biased sampling of the crustal stress by the synthetic aftershocks due to the non-linear dependence of seismicity rates on stress changes. The model indicates that one cannot use focal mechanism inversion rotations to conclusively demonstrate low crustal strength (≤10 MPa); therefore, studies of crustal strength following a stress perturbation may significantly underestimate the mean crustal stress state for regions with spatially heterogeneous stress

The Visible Imaging System (VIS) for the Polar Spacecraft

The Visible Imaging System (VIS) is a set of three low-light-level cameras to be flown on the POLAR spacecraft of the Global Geospace Science (GGS) program which is an element of the International Solar-Terrestrial Physics (ISTP) campaign. Two of these cameras share primary and some secondary optics and are designed to provide images of the nighttime auroral oval at visible wavelengths. A third camera is used to monitor the directions of the fields-of-view of these sensitive auroral cameras with respect to sunlit Earth. The auroral emissions of interest include those from N+2 at 391.4 nm, 0 I at 557.7 and 630.0 nm, H I at 656.3 nm, and 0 II at 732.0 nm. The two auroral cameras have different spatial resolutions. These resolutions are about 10 and 20 km from a spacecraft altitude of 8 R(sub e). The time to acquire and telemeter a 256 x 256-pixel image is about 12 s. The primary scientific objectives of this imaging instrumentation, together with the in-situ observations from the ensemble of ISTP spacecraft, are (1) quantitative assessment of the dissipation of magnetospheric energy into the auroral ionosphere, (2) an instantaneous reference system for the in-situ measurements, (3) development of a substantial model for energy flow within the magnetosphere, (4) investigation of the topology of the magnetosphere, and (5) delineation of the responses of the magnetosphere to substorms and variable solar wind conditions

Implications for prediction and hazard assessment from the 2004 Parkfield earthquake

Obtaining high-quality measurements close to a large earthquake is not easy: one has to be in the right place at the right time with the right instruments. Such a convergence happened, for the first time, when the 28 September 2004 Parkfield, California, earthquake occurred on the San Andreas fault in the middle of a dense network of instruments designed to record it. The resulting data reveal aspects of the earthquake process never before seen. Here we show what these data, when combined with data from earlier Parkfield earthquakes, tell us about earthquake physics and earthquake prediction. The 2004 Parkfield earthquake, with its lack of obvious precursors, demonstrates that reliable short-term earthquake prediction still is not achievable. To reduce the societal impact of earthquakes now, we should focus on developing the next generation of models that can provide better predictions of the strength and location of damaging ground shaking

Seismic slip on an upper-plate normal fault during a large subduction megathrust rupture

Quantification of stress accumulation and release during subduction zone seismic cycles requires an understanding of the distribution of fault slip during earthquakes. Reconstructions of slip are typically constrained to a single, known fault plane. Yet, slip has been shown to occur on multiple faults within the subducting plate1 owing to stress triggering2, resulting in phenomena such as earthquake doublets3. However, rapid stress triggering from the plate interface to faults in the overriding plate has not been documented. Here we analyse seismic data from the magnitude 7.1 Araucania earthquake that occurred in the Chilean subduction zone in 2011. We find that the earthquake, which was reported as a single event in global moment tensor solutions4, 5, was instead composed of two ruptures on two separate faults. Within 12?s a thrust earthquake on the plate interface triggered a second large rupture on a normal fault 30?km away in the overriding plate. This configuration of partitioned rupture is consistent with normal-faulting mechanisms in the ensuing aftershock sequence. We conclude that plate interface rupture can trigger almost instantaneous slip in the overriding plate of a subduction zone. This shallow upper-plate rupture may be masked from teleseismic data, posing a challenge for real-time tsunami warning systems