The impact of a seasonally ice free Arctic Ocean on the temperature, precipitation and surface mass balance of Svalbard

The observed decline in summer sea ice extent since the 1970s is predicted to continue until the Arctic Ocean is seasonally ice free during the 21st Century. This will lead to a much perturbed Arctic climate with large changes in ocean surface energy flux. Svalbard, located on the present day sea ice edge, contains many low lying ice caps and glaciers and is expected to experience rapid warming over the 21st Century. The total sea level rise if all the land ice on Svalbard were to melt completely is 0.02 m. The purpose of this study is to quantify the impact of climate change on Svalbard’s surface mass balance (SMB) and to determine, in particular, what proportion of the projected changes in precipitation and SMB are a result of changes to the Arctic sea ice cover. To investigate this a regional climate model was forced with monthly mean climatologies of sea surface temperature (SST) and sea ice concentration for the periods 1961–1990 and 2061–2090 under two emission scenarios. In a novel forcing experiment, 20th Century SSTs and 21st Century sea ice were used to force one simulation to investigate the role of sea ice forcing. This experiment results in a 3.5 m water equivalent increase in Svalbard’s SMB compared to the present day. This is because over 50 % of the projected increase in winter precipitation over Svalbard under the A1B emissions scenario is due to an increase in lower atmosphere moisture content associated with evaporation from the ice free ocean. These results indicate that increases in precipitation due to sea ice decline may act to moderate mass loss from Svalbard’s glaciers due to future Arctic warming

Complex evolving patterns of mass loss from Antarctica’s largest glacier

Pine Island Glacier has contributed more to sea level rise over the past four decades than any other glacier in Antarctica. Model projections indicate that this will continue in the future but at conflicting rates. Some models suggest that mass loss could dramatically increase over the next few decades, resulting in a rapidly growing contribution to sea level and fast retreat of the grounding line, where the grounded ice meets the ocean. Other models indicate more moderate losses. Resolving this contrasting behaviour is important for sea level rise projections. Here, we use high-resolution satellite observations of elevation change since 2010 to show that thinning rates are now highest along the slow-flow margins of the glacier and that the present-day amplitude and pattern of elevation change is inconsistent with fast grounding-line migration and the associated rapid increase in mass loss over the next few decades. Instead, our results support model simulations that imply only modest changes in grounding-line location over that timescale. We demonstrate how the pattern of thinning is evolving in complex ways both in space and time and how rates in the fast-flowing central trunk have decreased by about a factor five since 2007

Attributing decadal climate variability in coastal sea-level trends

Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes due to natural and anthropogenic drivers in short-duration records and increases uncertainty in trend and acceleration estimates. When making regional coastal management and adaptation decisions, it is important to understand the drivers of these changes to account for periods of reduced or enhanced sea-level change. The variance in decadal sea-level trends about the global mean is quantified and mapped around the global coastlines of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans from historical CMIP6 runs and a high-resolution ocean model forced by reanalysis data. We reconstruct coastal, sea-level trends via linear relationships with climate mode and oceanographic indices. Using this approach, more than one-third of the variability in decadal sea-level trends can be explained by climate indices at 24.6 % to 73.1 % of grid cells located within 25 km of a coast in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. At 10.9 % of the world's coastline, climate variability explains over two-thirds of the decadal sea-level trend. By investigating the steric, manometric, and gravitational components of sea-level trend independently, it is apparent that much of the coastal ocean variability is dominated by the manometric signal, the consequence of the open-ocean steric signal propagating onto the continental shelf. Additionally, decadal variability in the gravitational, rotational, and solid-Earth deformation (GRD) signal should not be ignored in the total. There are locations such as the Persian Gulf and African west coast where decadal sea-level variability is historically small that are susceptible to future changes in hydrology and/or ice mass changes that drive intensified regional GRD sea-level change above the global mean. The magnitude of variance explainable by climate modes quantified in this study indicates an enhanced uncertainty in projections of short- to mid-term regional sea-level trend.</p

Attributing decadal climate variability in coastal sea-level trends

Decadal sea-level variability masks longer-term changes due to natural and anthropogenic drivers in short-duration records and increases uncertainty in trend and acceleration estimates. When making regional coastal management and adaptation decisions, it is important to understand the drivers of these changes to account for periods of reduced or enhanced sea-level change. The variance in decadal sea-level trends about the global mean is quantified and mapped around the global coastlines of the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans from historical CMIP6 runs and a high-resolution ocean model forced by reanalysis data. We reconstruct coastal, sea-level trends via linear relationships with climate mode and oceanographic indices. Using this approach, more than one-third of the variability in decadal sea-level trends can be explained by climate indices at 24.6 % to 73.1 % of grid cells located within 25 km of a coast in the Atlantic, Pacific, and Indian oceans. At 10.9 % of the world's coastline, climate variability explains over two-thirds of the decadal sea-level trend. By investigating the steric, manometric, and gravitational components of sea-level trend independently, it is apparent that much of the coastal ocean variability is dominated by the manometric signal, the consequence of the open-ocean steric signal propagating onto the continental shelf. Additionally, decadal variability in the gravitational, rotational, and solid-Earth deformation (GRD) signal should not be ignored in the total. There are locations such as the Persian Gulf and African west coast where decadal sea-level variability is historically small that are susceptible to future changes in hydrology and/or ice mass changes that drive intensified regional GRD sea-level change above the global mean. The magnitude of variance explainable by climate modes quantified in this study indicates an enhanced uncertainty in projections of short- to mid-term regional sea-level trend

A high-resolution Antarctic grounding zone product from ICESat-2 laser altimetry

The Antarctic grounding zone, which is the transition between the fully grounded ice sheet to freely floating ice shelf, plays a critical role in ice sheet stability, mass budget calculations, and ice sheet model projections. It is therefore important to continuously monitor its location and migration over time. Here we present the first ICESat-2-derived high-resolution grounding zone product of the Antarctic Ice Sheet, including three important boundaries: the inland limit of tidal flexure (Point F), inshore limit of hydrostatic equilibrium (Point H), and the break in slope (Point Ib). This dataset was derived from automated techniques developed in this study, using ICESat-2 laser altimetry repeat tracks between 30 March 2019 and 30 September 2020. The new grounding zone product has a near-complete coverage of the Antarctic Ice Sheet with a total of 21 346 Point F, 18 149 Point H, and 36 765 Point Ib locations identified, including the difficult-to-survey grounding zones, such as the fast-flowing glaciers draining into the Amundsen Sea embayment. The locations of newly derived ICESat-2 landward limit of tidal flexure agree well with the most recent differential synthetic aperture radar interferometry (DInSAR) observations in 2018, with a mean absolute separation and standard deviation of 0.02 and 0.02 km, respectively. By comparing the ICESat-2-derived grounding zone with the previous grounding zone products, we find a grounding line retreat of up to 15 km on the Crary Ice Rise of Ross Ice Shelf and a pervasive landward grounding line migration along the Amundsen Sea embayment during the past 2 decades. We also identify the presence of ice plains on the Filchner–Ronne Ice Shelf and the influence of oscillating ocean tides on grounding zone migration. The product derived from this study is available at https://doi.org/10.5523/bris.bnqqyngt89eo26qk8keckglww (Li et al., 2021) and is archived and maintained at the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Modeling the instantaneous response of glaciers after the collapse of the Larsen B Ice Shelf

Following the disintegration of the Larsen B Ice Shelf, Antarctic Peninsula, in 2002, regular surveillance of its ∼20 tributary glaciers has revealed a response which is varied and complex in both space and time. The major outlets have accelerated and thinned, smaller glaciers have shown little or no change, and glaciers flowing into the remnant Scar Inlet Ice Shelf have responded with delay. In this study we present the first areawide numerical analysis of glacier dynamics before and immediately after the collapse of the ice shelf, combining new data sets and a state‐of‐the‐art numerical ice flow model. We simulate the loss of buttressing at the grounding line and find a good qualitative agreement between modeled changes in glacier flow and observations. Through this study, we seek to improve confidence in our numerical models and their ability to capture the complex mechanical coupling between floating ice shelves and grounded ice

The transformative potential of international service-learning at a university with a Christian foundation in the UK

This article draws upon the findings of a study at Liverpool Hope University (LHU) into the transformative nature of International Service-Learning (ISL) experiences for student participants. This research is concerned with the implications of these findings for professional practice, in particular how ISL is constructed in Higher Education policy and practice. Recognising the problematic nature of this endeavor, this article responds to a call for discussion around pedagogical approaches underpinning counter-cultural and critical service programmes aligned with the radical principles of the Catholic social teaching. This study is grounded in a holistic conceptualisation of transformative learning that demands looking beyond an epistemological process that involves shifts in worldview and habits of mind to an ontological process that accounts for changes to our being in the world. It investigated how LHU students describe their ongoing experience of ISL and explored the conditions for learning and the associated transformative processes and outcomes in this context. Data analysis involved phenomenological description, constant comparative thematic analysis followed by a critical, hermeneutical analysis. This article will explicate the themes of moral and spiritual learning that emerged as part of a broader framework. In particular, it was found that the development of authentic relationships between travelling companions, accompanying tutors and partners overseas is central to learning that is reciprocated and provides a model of the transformative process in this context. This article concludes that this presents a pedagogical approach grounded in social justice that enables ISL to reach its transformative potential