Comparison of scoring methods for the detection of causal genes with or without rare variants

Rare causal variants are believed to significantly contribute to the genetic basis of common diseases or quantitative traits. Appropriate statistical methods are required to discover the highest possible number of disease-relevant variants in a genome-wide screening study. The publicly available Genetic Analysis Workshop 17 data set consists of 697 individuals and 24,487 genetic variants. It includes a simulated complex disease model with intermediate quantitative phenotypes. We compare four gene-wise scoring methods with respect to ranking of causal genes under variable allele frequency thresholds for collapsing of rare variants and considering whether or not rare variants were included. We also compare causal genes for which the ranks differ clearly between scoring methods regarding such characteristics as number and strength of causal variants. We corroborated our findings with additional simulations. We found that the maximum statistics method was superior in assigning high ranks to genes with a single strong causal variant. Hotelling’s T2 test was superior for genes with several independent causal variants. This was consistent for all phenotypes and was confirmed by single-gene analyses and additional simulations. The multivariate analysis performed similarly to Hotelling’s T2 test. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis was widely comparable with the maximum statistics method. We conclude that the maximum statistics method is a superior alternative to Hotelling’s T2 test if one expects only one independent causal variant per gene with a dominating effect. Such a variant could also be a supermarker derived by collapsing rare variants. Because the true nature of the genetic effect is unknown for real data, both methods need to be taken into consideration

Extremes on the discounted aggregate claims in a time dependent risk model

This paper presents an extension of the classical compound Poisson risk model for which the inter-claim time and the forthcoming claim amount are no longer independent random variables (rv's). Asymptotic tail probabilities for the discounted aggregate claims are presented when the force of interest is constant and the claim amounts are heavy tail distributed rv's. Furthermore, we derive asymptotic finite time ruin probabilities, as well as asymptotic approximations for some common risk measures associated with the discounted aggregate claims. A simulation study is performed in order to validate the results obtained in the free interest risk model

Estimation of conditional laws given an extreme component

Let $(X,Y)$ be a bivariate random vector. The estimation of a probability of the form $P(Y\leq y \mid X >t)$ is challenging when $t$ is large, and a fruitful approach consists in studying, if it exists, the limiting conditional distribution of the random vector $(X,Y)$, suitably normalized, given that $X$ is large. There already exists a wide literature on bivariate models for which this limiting distribution exists. In this paper, a statistical analysis of this problem is done. Estimators of the limiting distribution (which is assumed to exist) and the normalizing functions are provided, as well as an estimator of the conditional quantile function when the conditioning event is extreme. Consistency of the estimators is proved and a functional central limit theorem for the estimator of the limiting distribution is obtained. The small sample behavior of the estimator of the conditional quantile function is illustrated through simulations.Comment: 32 pages, 5 figur

Does pathway analysis make it easier for common variants to tag rare ones?

Analyzing sequencing data is difficult because of the low frequency of rare variants, which may result in low power to detect associations. We consider pathway analysis to detect multiple common and rare variants jointly and to investigate whether analysis at the pathway level provides an alternative strategy for identifying susceptibility genes. Available pathway analysis methods for data from genome-wide association studies might not be efficient because these methods are designed to detect common variants. Here, we investigate the performance of several existing pathway analysis methods for sequencing data. In particular, we consider the global test, which does not consider linkage disequilibrium between the variants in a gene. We improve the performance of the global test by assigning larger weights to rare variants, as proposed in the weighted-sum approach. Our conclusion is that straightforward application of pathway analysis is not satisfactory; hence, when common and rare variants are jointly analyzed, larger weights should be assigned to rare variants

A two-stage inter-rater approach for enrichment testing of variants associated with multiple traits

Shared genetic aetiology may explain the co-occurrence of diseases in individuals more often than expected by chance. On identifying associated variants shared between two traits, one objective is to determine whether such overlap may be explained by specific genomic characteristics (eg, functional annotation). In clinical studies, inter-rater agreement approaches assess concordance among expert opinions on the presence/absence of a complex disease for each subject. We adapt a two-stage inter-rater agreement model to the genetic association setting to identify features predictive of overlap variants, while accounting for their marginal trait associations. The resulting corrected overlap and marginal enrichment test (COMET) also assesses enrichment at the individual trait level. Multiple categories may be tested simultaneously and the method is computationally efficient, not requiring permutations to assess significance. In an extensive simulation study, COMET identifies features predictive of enrichment with high power and has well-calibrated type I error. In contrast, testing for overlap with a single-trait enrichment test has inflated type I error. COMET is applied to three glycaemic traits using a set of functional annotation categories as predictors, followed by further analyses that focus on tissue-specific regulatory variants. The results support previous findings that regulatory variants in pancreatic islets are enriched for fasting glucose-associated variants, and give insight into differences/similarities between characteristics of variants associated with glycaemic traits. Also, despite regulatory variants in pancreatic islets being enriched for variants that are marginally associated with fasting glucose and fasting insulin, there is no enrichment of shared variants between the traits

A Bayesian Approach to the Overlap Analysis of Epidemiologically Linked Traits.

Diseases often cooccur in individuals more often than expected by chance, and may be explained by shared underlying genetic etiology. A common approach to genetic overlap analyses is to use summary genome-wide association study data to identify single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) that are associated with multiple traits at a selected P-value threshold. However, P-values do not account for differences in power, whereas Bayes' factors (BFs) do, and may be approximated using summary statistics. We use simulation studies to compare the power of frequentist and Bayesian approaches with overlap analyses, and to decide on appropriate thresholds for comparison between the two methods. It is empirically illustrated that BFs have the advantage over P-values of a decreasing type I error rate as study size increases for single-disease associations. Consequently, the overlap analysis of traits from different-sized studies encounters issues in fair P-value threshold selection, whereas BFs are adjusted automatically. Extensive simulations show that Bayesian overlap analyses tend to have higher power than those that assess association strength with P-values, particularly in low-power scenarios. Calibration tables between BFs and P-values are provided for a range of sample sizes, as well as an approximation approach for sample sizes that are not in the calibration table. Although P-values are sometimes thought more intuitive, these tables assist in removing the opaqueness of Bayesian thresholds and may also be used in the selection of a BF threshold to meet a certain type I error rate. An application of our methods is used to identify variants associated with both obesity and osteoarthritis

Disease risk prediction with rare and common variants

A number of studies have been conducted to investigate the predictive value of common genetic variants for complex diseases. To date, these studies have generally shown that common variants have no appreciable added predictive value over classical risk factors. New sequencing technology has enhanced the ability to identify rare variants that may have larger functional effects than common variants. One would expect rare variants to improve the discrimination power for disease risk by permitting more detailed quantification of genetic risk. Using the Genetic Analysis Workshop 17 simulated data sets for unrelated individuals, we evaluate the predictive value of rare variants by comparing prediction models built using the support vector machine algorithm with or without rare variants. Empirical results suggest that rare variants have appreciable effects on disease risk prediction

Trans-ethnic study design approaches for fine-mapping.

Studies that traverse ancestrally diverse populations may increase power to detect novel loci and improve fine-mapping resolution of causal variants by leveraging linkage disequilibrium differences between ethnic groups. The inclusion of African ancestry samples may yield further improvements because of low linkage disequilibrium and high genetic heterogeneity. We investigate the fine-mapping resolution of trans-ethnic fixed-effects meta-analysis for five type II diabetes loci, under various settings of ancestral composition (European, East Asian, African), allelic heterogeneity, and causal variant minor allele frequency. In particular, three settings of ancestral composition were compared: (1) single ancestry (European), (2) moderate ancestral diversity (European and East Asian), and (3) high ancestral diversity (European, East Asian, and African). Our simulations suggest that the European/Asian and European ancestry-only meta-analyses consistently attain similar fine-mapping resolution. The inclusion of African ancestry samples in the meta-analysis leads to a marked improvement in fine-mapping resolution

Transancestral fine-mapping of four type 2 diabetes susceptibility loci highlights potential causal regulatory mechanisms

To gain insight into potential regulatory mechanisms through which the effects of variants at four established type 2 diabetes (T2D) susceptibility loci (CDKAL1, CDKN2A-B, IGF2BP2 and KCNQ1) are mediated, we undertook transancestral fine-mapping in 22 086 cases and 42 539 controls of East Asian, European, South Asian, African American and Mexican American descent. Through high-density imputation and conditional analyses, we identified seven distinct association signals at these four loci, each with allelic effects on T2D susceptibility that were homogenous across ancestry groups. By leveraging differences in the structure of linkage disequilibrium between diverse populations, and increased sample size, we localised the variants most likely to drive each distinct association signal. We demonstrated that integration of these genetic fine-mapping data with genomic annotation can highlight potential causal regulatory elements in T2D-relevant tissues. These analyses provide insight into the mechanisms through which T2D association signals are mediated, and suggest future routes to understanding the biology of specific disease susceptibility loci