Deterministic-statistical model coupling in a DSS for river-basin management

This paper presents a method for appropriate coupling of deterministic and statistical models. In the decision-support system for the Elbe river, a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to obtain the discharge statistics and corresponding average number of flood days, which is a key input variable for a rule-based model for floodplain vegetation. The required quality of the discharge time series cannot be determined by a sensitivity analysis because a deterministic model is linked to a statistical model. To solve the problem, artificial discharge time series are generated that mimic the hypothetical output of rainfall-runoff models of different accuracy. The results indicate that a feasible calibration of the rainfall-runoff model is sufficient to obtain consistency with the vegetation model in view of its sensitivity to changes in the number of flood days in the floodplains

Appropriate Accuracy of Models for Decision-Support Systems: Case Example for the Elbe River Basin

Given the growing complexity of water-resources management there will be an increasing need\ud for integrated tools to support policy analysis, communication, and research. A key aspect of the design is the\ud combination of process models from different scientific disciplines in an integrated system. In general these\ud models differ in sensitivity and accuracy, while non-linear and qualitative models can be present. The current\ud practice is that the preferences of the designers of a decision-support system, and practical considerations\ud such as data availability guide the selection of models and data. Due to a lack of clear scientific guidelines the\ud design becomes an ad-hoc process, depending on the case study at hand, while selected models can be overly\ud complex or too coarse for their purpose. Ideally, the design should allow for the ranking of selected\ud management measures according to the objectives set by end users, without being more complex than\ud necessary. De Kok and Wind [2003] refer to this approach as appropriate modeling. A good case example is\ud the ongoing pilot project aiming at the design of a decision-support system for the Elbe river basin. Four\ud functions are accounted for: navigability, floodplain ecology, flooding safety, and water quality. This paper\ud concerns the response of floodplain biotope types to river engineering works and changes in the flooding\ud frequency of the floodplains. The HBV-D conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to simulate the impact of\ud climate and land use change on the discharge statistics. The question was raised how well this rainfall-runoff\ud model should be calibrated as compared to the observed discharge data. Sensitivity analyses indicate that a\ud value of R2 = 0.87 should be sufficient

Global General Relativistic Magnetohydrodynamic Simulations of Accretion Tori

This paper presents an initial survey of the properties of accretion flows in the Kerr metric from three-dimensional, general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of accretion tori. We consider three fiducial models of tori around rotating, both prograde and retrograde, and nonrotating black holes; these three fiducial models are also contrasted with axisymmetric simulations and a pseudo-Newtonian simulation with equivalent initial conditions to delineate the limitations of these approximations.Comment: Submitted to ApJ. 30 pages, 21 figures. Animations and high-resolution version of figures available at http://www.astro.virginia.edu/~jd5

Evolution of self-gravitating magnetized disks. II- Interaction between MHD turbulence and gravitational instabilities

We present 3D magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) numerical simulations of the evolution of self--gravitating and weakly magnetized disks with an adiabatic equation of state. Such disks are subject to the development of both the magnetorotational and gravitational instabilities, which transport angular momentum outward. As in previous studies, our hydrodynamical simulations show the growth of strong m=2 spiral structure. This spiral disturbance drives matter toward the central object and disappears when the Toomre parameter Q has increased well above unity. When a weak magnetic field is present as well, the magnetorotational instability grows and leads to turbulence. In that case, the strength of the gravitational stress tensor is lowered by a factor of about~2 compared to the hydrodynamical run and oscillates periodically, reaching very small values at its minimum. We attribute this behavior to the presence of a second spiral mode with higher pattern speed than the one which dominates in the hydrodynamical simulations. It is apparently excited by the high frequency motions associated with MHD turbulence. The nonlinear coupling between these two spiral modes gives rise to a stress tensor that oscillates with a frequency which is a combination of the frequencies of each of the modes. This interaction between MHD turbulence and gravitational instabilities therefore results in a smaller mass accretion rate onto the central object.Comment: 31 pages, 19 figures, accepted for publication in ApJ, animation avalaible at http://www2.iap.fr/users/fromang/simu3d/simu3d.htm

The binary fraction of planetary nebula central stars I. A high-precision, I-band excess search

In an attempt to determine how many planetary nebulae derive from binary interactions, we have started a project to measure their unbiased binary fraction. This number, when compared to the binary fraction of the presumed parent population can give a first handle on the origin of planetary nebulae. By detecting 27 bona fide central stars in the I band we have found that 30% of our sample have an I band excess between one and a few sigmas, possibly denoting companions brighter than M3-4V and with separations smaller than approximately 1000 AU. By accounting for the undetectable companions, we determine a de-biased binary fraction of 67-78% for all companions at all separations. We compare this number to a main sequence binary fraction of (50+/-4)% determined for spectral types F6V-G2V, appropriate if the progenitors of today's PN central star population is indeed the F6V-G2V stars. The error on our estimate could be between 10 and 30%. We conclude that the central star binary fraction may be larger than expected from the putative parent population. Using the more sensitive J band of a subset of 11 central stars, the binary fraction is 54% for companions brighter than approximately M5-6V and with separations smaller than about 900 AU. De-biassing this number we obtain a binary fraction of 100-107%. The two numbers should be the same and the discrepancy is likely due to small number statistics. We also present an accurately vetted compilation of observed main sequence star magnitudes, colours and masses, which can serve as a reference for future studies. We also present synthetic colours of hot stars as a function of temperature (20-170kK) and gravity (log g= 6-8) for Solar and PG1159 compositions.Comment: 22 pages, 6 figures, 12 tables, accepted by MNRA

Structure, Organization, and Expression of the lct Gene for Lacticin 481, a Novel Lantibiotic Produced by Lactococcus lactis

The structural gene for the lactococcal lantibiotic lacticin 481 (lct) has been identified and cloned using a degenerated 20-mer DNA oligonucleotide based on the amino-terminal 7 amino acid residues of the purified protein. The transcription of the lct gene was analyzed, and its promoter was mapped. DNA sequence analysis of the lct gene revealed an open reading frame encoding a peptide of 51 amino acids. Comparison of its deduced amino acid sequence with the amino-terminal sequence and the amino acid composition of lacticin 481 indicates that the 61-residue peptide is prelacticin 481, containing a 27-residue carboxyl-terminal propeptide and a 24-residue amino-terminal leader peptide which lacks the properties of a typical signal sequence and which is significantly different from the leaders of other lantibiotics. The predicted amino acid sequence of prolacticin 481 contains 3 cysteines, 2 serines, and 2 threonines which were not detectable in amino acid analyses of mature lacticin 481. Based on these results and on characterization by two-dimensional NMR techniques, a structural model is proposed in which 2 cysteine residues are involved in lanthionine and one in β-methyllanthionine formation, and a 4th threonine residue is dehydrated. This model predicts a molecular mass for lacticin 481 of 2,901, which is in excellent agreement with that obtained from mass spectrometry.