Optimal design, robustness, and risk aversion

Highly optimized tolerance is a model of optimization in engineered systems, which gives rise to power-law distributions of failure events in such systems. The archetypal example is the highly optimized forest fire model. Here we give an analytic solution for this model which explains the origin of the power laws. We also generalize the model to incorporate risk aversion, which results in truncation of the tails of the power law so that the probability of disastrously large events is dramatically lowered, giving the system more robustness.Comment: 11 pages, 2 figure

Hubble space telescope: Pointing error effects on nonlinear ball joints

The Hubble Space Telescope pointing error produced by optical benches mounted on free ball joints is examined. Spacecraft cable connections are assumed to produce translational and rotational damping and restoring forces which act through the optical bench center of mass. The nonlinear dynamics are modeled and then implemented using an existing computer program for simulating the vehicle dynamics and pointing control system algorithm. Results are presented for the test case which indicate acceptable performance

Crystallization of random trigonometric polynomials

We give a precise measure of the rate at which repeated differentiation of a random trigonometric polynomial causes the roots of the function to approach equal spacing. This can be viewed as a toy model of crystallization in one dimension. In particular we determine the asymptotics of the distribution of the roots around the crystalline configuration and find that the distribution is not Gaussian.Comment: 10 pages, 3 figure

Measurement of spray combustion processes

A free jet configuration was chosen for measuring noncombusting spray fields and hydrocarbon-air spray flames in an effort to develop computational models of the dynamic interaction between droplets and the gas phase and to verify and refine numerical models of the entire spray combustion process. The development of a spray combustion facility is described including techniques for laser measurements in spray combustion environments and methods for data acquisition, processing, displaying, and interpretation

Particle phase function measurements by a new Fiber Array Nephelometer: FAN 1

A fiber array polar nephelometer of advanced design, the FAN I is capable of in-situ phase function measurements of scattered light from man-made or natural atmospheric particles. The scattered light is measured at 100 different angles throughout 360 degrees, thus providing a potential measurement of the asymmetry of irregularly shaped particles. Phase functions can be measured at 10 to 100 Hz rates and the range of measurable single particle sizes is from 5 micron m to as large as 8mm. For particles smaller than 5 micro m the ensemble average can be measured. The FAN I is microprocessor controlled and the data may be stored on floppy disk or printed out in tabular and/or graphical form. The optical head may be separated from the computer system for operation in field or adverse conditions. Examples of laboratory measured scattering phase functions obtained with the FAN I for spherical particles is given to illustrate its measurement capabilities

Returning children home from care: What can be learned from local authority data?

International Human Rights and child rights conventions as well as U.K. wide legislation and guidance require that children in care should be returned home to one or both parents wherever possible. Reunification with parents is the most common route out of care, but rates of re‐entry are often higher than for other exit routes. This study used 8 years of administrative data (on 2,208 care entrants), collected by one large English local authority, to examine how many children were returned home and to explore factors associated with stable reunification (not re‐entering care for at least 2 years). One‐third of children (36%) had been reunified, with adolescent entrants being the most likely age group to return home. Three quarters (75%) of reunified children had a stable reunification. In a fully adjusted regression model, age at entry, being on a care order prior to return home, staying longer in care, being of minority ethnicity, and having fewer placements in care were all significant in predicting chances of stable reunification. The results underline the importance of properly resourcing reunification services. The methods demonstrate the value to local authorities of analysing their own data longitudinally to understand the care pathways for children they look after

LTV beta-bremsstrahlung spectrometer for Gemini 12 Final report

Design and operation of combination bremsstrahlung spectrometer and data processor for radiation monitoring during Gemini 7 fligh

The purpose of rating quality of evidence differs in an overview, as compared to guidelines or recommendations

No abstract available

An algorithm was developed to assign GRADE levels of evidence to comparisons within systematic reviews

Objectives: One recommended use of the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach is supporting quality assessment of evidence of comparisons included within a Cochrane overview of reviews. Within our overview, reviewers found that current GRADE guidance was insufficient to make reliable and consistent judgments. To support our ratings, we developed an algorithm to grade quality of evidence using concrete rules. Methods: Using a pragmatic, exploratory approach, we explored the challenges of applying GRADE levels of evidence and developed an algorithm to applying GRADE levels of evidence in a consistent and transparent approach. Our methods involved application of algorithms and formulas to samples of reviews, expert panel discussion, and iterative refinement and revision. Results: The developed algorithm incorporated four key criteria: number of participants, risk of bias of trials, heterogeneity, and methodological quality of the review. A formula for applying GRADE level of evidence from the number of downgrades assigned by the algorithm was agreed. Conclusion: Our algorithm which assigns GRADE levels of evidence using a set of concrete rules was successfully applied within our Cochrane overview. We propose that this methodological approach has implications for assessment of quality of evidence within future evidence syntheses