The U.S. Automotive Industry: National and State Trends in Manufacturing Employment

[Excerpt] The U.S. motor vehicle manufacturing industry\u27 employs 880,000 workers, or approximately 6.6% of the U.S. manufacturing workforce, including those who work in the large motor vehicle parts manufacturing sector, as well as those who assemble motor vehicles. Since the beginning of the decade, the nation\u27s automotive manufacturing sector has eliminated more than 435,000 automotive manufacturing jobs (or an amount equal to about 3.3% of all manufacturing jobs in 2008). The employment level first dipped below one million in 2007 and fell to 880,000 workers last year. With the restructuring and bankruptcy of Chrysler and General Motors, and the ongoing recession in the auto sector, employment in the nation\u27s automotive manufacturing industry will most likely shrink in 2009 and 2010 as additional assembly, powertrain, and auto parts plants close. This report provides an analysis of automotive manufacturing employment, with a focus on national and state trends. The 111th Congress continues to be heavily engaged in oversight and legislative proposals in response to the unprecedented crisis of the domestic motor vehicle manufacturing industry. The Detroit-based automotive manufacturers (General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler) have suffered a series of setbacks in recent years with their share of the domestic market dropping from 64.5% in 2001 to 47.5% in 2008. As a consequence, the traditional auto states of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio have been—and will continue to be—heavily impacted by the changes taking place in the automotive sector. Together, there are now 152,000 fewer automotive manufacturing jobs in these three states than there were five years ago. Recent automotive sales and production data indicate the enormous changes taking place in today\u27s motor vehicle manufacturing sector. For instance, automotive sales fell to 13.2 million units in 2008, down by 18% from 2007, and forecasts indicate U.S. consumers are expected to purchase fewer than 10 million cars and light trucks in 2009. There has also been a loss of market share by the Detroit 3 producers which has created gains for foreign-owned domestic manufacturers and imports. Some recent Detroit 3 automotive manufacturing employment losses are partially offset by new investments by foreign-owned manufacturers in the United States as they have open, or will open, new plants in states like Indiana, Georgia, and Tennessee. Many Members of Congress, and especially those members from the traditional auto belt states of Michigan, Indiana, and Ohio, have expressed their concerns about lost jobs in the automotive manufacturing sector. With the sale of GM assets to the U.S. government and Chrysler assets to Fiat, two new companies have emerged that will be substantially smaller than the companies that went into bankruptcy. As a consequence, the total level of motor vehicle manufacturing employment will be reduced, especially in locales where facilities have closed. The most recent automotive manufacturing employment data indicate that 42% of all persons in the industry work in one of the three traditional auto belt states, each of which at present employs more than 100,000 persons in the industry. Michigan alone has accounted for 40% of the net job loss in the industry since 2003. Losses in Ohio and Indiana have been less severe, offset somewhat by foreign investment. Alabama, with fewer total automotive manufacturing employees, has been the big job gainer, adding over 12,000 auto manufacturing jobs since 2003. Texas, now the eighth largest state by automotive employment, gained 5,200 jobs between 2003 and 2008. Auto industry states in the South including Kentucky, South Carolina, and Tennessee have lost jobs in recent years, but far fewer than in the traditional auto belt states

Using MODFLOW drains to simulate groundwater flow in a karst environment

Modeling groundwater flow in a karst environment is both numerically challenging and highly uncertain because of potentially complex flowpaths and a lack of site-specific information. This study presents the results of MODFLOW numerical modeling in which drain cells in a finite-difference model are used as analogs for preferential flowpaths or conduits in karst environments. In this study, conduits in mixed-flow systems are simulated by assigning connected pathways of drain cells from the locations of tracer releases, sinkholes, or other karst features to outlet springs along inferred flowpaths. These paths are determined by the locations of losing stream segments, ephemeral stream beds, geophysical surveys, fracture lineaments, or other surficial characteristics, combined with the results of dye traces. The elevations of the drains at the discharge ends of the inferred flowpaths are estimated from field data and are adjusted when necessary during model calibration. To simulate flow in a free-flowing conduit, a high conductance is assigned to each drain to eliminate the need for drain-specific information that would be very difficult to obtain. Calculations were performed for a site near Hohenfels, Germany. The potentiometric surface produced by the simulations agreed well with field data. The head contours in the vicinity of the karst features behaved in a manner consistent with a flow system having both diffuse and conduit components, and the sum of the volumetric flow out of the drain cells agreed closely with spring discharges and stream flows. Because of the success of this approach, it is recommended for regional studies in which little site-specific information (e.g., location, number, size, and conductivity of fractures and conduits) is available, and general flow characteristics are desired

Evaluation of Passing Process on Two-Lane Rural Highways in Spain with New Methodology Based on Video Data

Drivers need sufficient passing sight distance (PSD) to pass slower vehicles with safety. This distance can help to improve traffic operation on two-way, two-lane highways. Existing models propose different values of PSD because of different assumptions. In only some cases were these models based on field data of passing maneuvers. This research proposed the design of a methodology to observe passing maneuvers on existing highways with the help of six video cameras installed at a fixed point next to passing sections. The use of more cameras allows complete registration of trajectories along the entire passing zone, with uniform image resolution. The methodology was applied to register a sample of 234 maneuvers on four passing zones. Trajectories of 58 maneuvers were completely described and analyzed with specific restitution software. Results were compared with those from existing PSD models. The distances traveled proposed by the AASHTO model on the left lane were (a) similar to average observed distances when the passed vehicle was one truck and (b) between 50 and 100 m higher when one passenger car was passed. Higher differences, greater than 100 m, were found between measured data and the PSD model (published previously), especially at high design speeds. The observed average speed difference between passing and impeding vehicles was significantly higher than that in any model. Variables with the strongest influence on the time and distance traveled on the opposing lane were the type and speed of the passed vehicle and the length of the passing zone. Left-lane time and distance increase with this length.Llorca Garcia, C.; García García, A. (2011). Evaluation of Passing Process on Two-Lane Rural Highways in Spain with New Methodology Based on Video Data. Transportation Research Record. 2262:42-51. doi:10.3141/2262-05S42512262Farah, H., Bekhor, S., & Polus, A. (2009). Risk evaluation by modeling of passing behavior on two-lane rural highways. Accident Analysis & Prevention, 41(4), 887-894. doi:10.1016/j.aap.2009.05.006Rilett, L. R., Hutchinson, B. G., & Whitney, M. (1990). Mechanics of the passing maneuver and the impact of large trucks. Transportation Research Part A: General, 24(2), 121-128. doi:10.1016/0191-2607(90)90019-3Wang, Y., & Cartmell, M. P. (1998). New Model for Passing Sight Distance on Two-Lane Highways. Journal of Transportation Engineering, 124(6), 536-545. doi:10.1061/(asce)0733-947x(1998)124:6(536)Polus, A., Livneh, M., & Frischer, B. (2000). Evaluation of the Passing Process on Two-Lane Rural Highways. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1701(1), 53-60. doi:10.3141/1701-07Carlson, P., Miles, J., & Johnson, P. (2006). Daytime High-Speed Passing Maneuvers Observed on Rural Two-Lane, Two-Way Highway: Findings and Implications. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 1961, 9-15. doi:10.3141/1961-02Harwood, D. W., Gilmore, D. K., & Richard, K. R. (2010). Criteria for Passing Sight Distance for Roadway Design and Marking. Transportation Research Record: Journal of the Transportation Research Board, 2195(1), 36-46. doi:10.3141/2195-0

Neuropsychological characterization of aggressive behavior in children and adolescents with cd/odd and effects of single doses of medications: The protocol of the matrics_wp6-1 study

Aggressive behaviors and disruptive/conduct disorders are some of the commonest reasons for referral to youth mental health services; nevertheless, the efficacy of therapeutic interventions in real-world clinical practice remains unclear. In order to define more appropriate targets for innovative pharmacological therapies for disruptive/conduct disorders, the European Commission within the Seventh Framework Programme (FP7) funded the MATRICS project (Multidisciplinary Approaches to Translational Research in Conduct Syndromes) to identify neural, genetic, and molecular factors underpinning the pathogenesis of aggression/antisocial behavior in preclinical models and clinical samples. Within the program, a multicentre case-control study, followed by a single-blind, placebo-controlled, cross-over, randomized acute single-dose medication challenge, was conducted at two Italian sites. Aggressive children and adolescents with conduct disorder (CD) or oppositional defiant disorder (ODD) were compared to the same age (10–17 y) typically developing controls (TDC) on a neuropsychological tasks battery that included both “cold” (e.g., inhibitory control, decision making) and “hot” executive functions (e.g., moral judgment, emotion processing, risk assessment). Selected autonomic measures (heart rate variability, skin conductance, salivary cortisol) were recorded before/during/after neuropsychological testing sessions. The acute response to different drugs (methylphenidate/atomoxetine, risperidone/aripiprazole, or placebo) was also examined in the ODD/CD cohort in order to identify potential neuropsychological/physiological mechanisms underlying aggression. The paper describes the protocol of the clinical MATRICS WP6-1 study, its rationale, the specific outcome measures, and their implications for a precision medicine approach

'Education, education, education' : legal, moral and clinical

This article brings together Professor Donald Nicolson's intellectual interest in professional legal ethics and his long-standing involvement with law clinics both as an advisor at the University of Cape Town and Director of the University of Bristol Law Clinic and the University of Strathclyde Law Clinic. In this article he looks at how legal education may help start this process of character development, arguing that the best means is through student involvement in voluntary law clinics. And here he builds upon his recent article which argues for voluntary, community service oriented law clinics over those which emphasise the education of students

Eccentric, nonspinning, inspiral, Gaussian-process merger approximant for the detection and characterization of eccentric binary black hole mergers

We present $\texttt{ENIGMA}$, a time domain, inspiral-merger-ringdown waveform model that describes non-spinning binary black holes systems that evolve on moderately eccentric orbits. The inspiral evolution is described using a consistent combination of post-Newtonian theory, self-force and black hole perturbation theory. Assuming eccentric binaries that circularize prior to coalescence, we smoothly match the eccentric inspiral with a stand-alone, quasi-circular merger, which is constructed using machine learning algorithms that are trained with quasi-circular numerical relativity waveforms. We show that $\texttt{ENIGMA}$ reproduces with excellent accuracy the dynamics of quasi-circular compact binaries. We validate $\texttt{ENIGMA}$ using a set of $\texttt{Einstein Toolkit}$ eccentric numerical relativity waveforms, which describe eccentric binary black hole mergers with mass-ratios between $1 \leq q \leq 5.5$, and eccentricities $e_0 \lesssim 0.2$ ten orbits before merger. We use this model to explore in detail the physics that can be extracted with moderately eccentric, non-spinning binary black hole mergers. We use $\texttt{ENIGMA}$ to show that GW150914, GW151226, GW170104, GW170814 and GW170608 can be effectively recovered with spinning, quasi-circular templates if the eccentricity of these events at a gravitational wave frequency of 10Hz satisfies $e_0\leq \{0.175,\, 0.125,\,0.175,\,0.175,\, 0.125\}$, respectively. We show that if these systems have eccentricities $e_0\sim 0.1$ at a gravitational wave frequency of 10Hz, they can be misclassified as quasi-circular binaries due to parameter space degeneracies between eccentricity and spin corrections. Using our catalog of eccentric numerical relativity simulations, we discuss the importance of including higher-order waveform multipoles in gravitational wave searches of eccentric binary black hole mergers.Comment: 19 pages, 10 figures, 1 Appendix. v2: we use numerical relativity simulations to quantify the importance of including higher-order waveform multipoles for the detection of eccentric binary black hole mergers, references added. Accepted to Phys. Rev.

Rapid Diagnostic Algorithms as a Screening Tool for Tuberculosis: An Assessor Blinded Cross-Sectional Study

Background: A major obstacle to effectively treat and control tuberculosis is the absence of an accurate, rapid, and low-cost diagnostic tool. A new approach for the screening of patients for tuberculosis is the use of rapid diagnostic classification algorithms. Methods: We tested a previously published diagnostic algorithm based on four biomarkers as a screening tool for tuberculosis in a Central European patient population using an assessor-blinded cross-sectional study design. In addition, we developed an improved diagnostic classification algorithm based on a study population at a tertiary hospital in Vienna, Austria, by supervised computational statistics. Results: The diagnostic accuracy of the previously published diagnostic algorithm for our patient population consisting of 206 patients was 54% (CI: 47%–61%). An improved model was constructed using inflammation parameters and clinical information. A diagnostic accuracy of 86% (CI: 80%–90%) was demonstrated by 10-fold cross validation. An alternative model relying solely on clinical parameters exhibited a diagnostic accuracy of 85% (CI: 79%–89%). Conclusion: Here we show that a rapid diagnostic algorithm based on clinical parameters is only slightly improved by inclusion of inflammation markers in our cohort. Our results also emphasize the need for validation of new diagnostic algorithms in different settings and patient populations

The First Episode Rapid Early Intervention for Eating Disorders - Upscaled study: Clinical outcomes

BACKGROUND: First Episode Rapid Early Intervention for Eating Disorders (FREED) is a service model and care pathway for emerging adults aged 16 to 25‐years with a recent onset eating disorder (ED) of <3 years. A previous single‐site study suggests that FREED significantly improves clinical outcomes compared to treatment‐as‐usual (TAU). The present study (FREED‐Up) assessed the scalability of FREED. A multi‐centre quasi‐experimental pre‐post design was used, comparing patient outcomes before and after implementation of FREED in participating services. METHODS: FREED patients (n = 278) were consecutive, prospectively ascertained referrals to four specialist ED services in England, assessed at four time points over 12 months on ED symptoms, mood, service utilization and cost. FREED patients were compared to a TAU cohort (n = 224) of similar patients, identified retrospectively from electronic patient records in participating services. All were emerging adults aged 16–25 experiencing a first episode ED of <3 years duration. RESULTS: Overall, FREED patients made significant and rapid clinical improvements over time. 53.2% of FREED patients with anorexia nervosa reached a healthy weight at the 12‐month timepoint, compared to only 17.9% of TAU patients (X2 [1, N = 107] = 10.46, p < .001). Significantly fewer FREED patients required intensive (i.e., in‐patient or day‐patient) treatment (6.6%) compared to TAU patients (12.4%) across the follow‐up period (X2 [1, N = 40] = 4.36, p = .037). This contributed to a trend in cost savings in FREED compared to TAU (−£4472, p = .06, CI −£9168, £233). DISCUSSION: FREED is robust and scalable and is associated with substantial improvements in clinical outcomes, reduction in inpatient or day‐patient admissions, and cost‐savin