Troubles with Bayesianism: An introduction to the psychological immune system

A Bayesian mind is, at its core, a rational mind. Bayesianism is thus well-suited to predict and explain mental processes that best exemplify our ability to be rational. However, evidence from belief acquisition and change appears to show that we do not acquire and update information in a Bayesian way. Instead, the principles of belief acquisition and updating seem grounded in maintaining a psychological immune system rather than in approximating a Bayesian processor

Direct calculation of the hard-sphere crystal/melt interfacial free energy

We present a direct calculation by molecular-dynamics computer simulation of the crystal/melt interfacial free energy, $\gamma$, for a system of hard spheres of diameter $\sigma$. The calculation is performed by thermodynamic integration along a reversible path defined by cleaving, using specially constructed movable hard-sphere walls, separate bulk crystal and fluid systems, which are then merged to form an interface. We find the interfacial free energy to be slightly anisotropic with $\gamma$ = 0.62$\pm 0.01$, 0.64$\pm 0.01$ and 0.58$\pm 0.01 k_BT/\sigma^2$ for the (100), (110) and (111) fcc crystal/fluid interfaces, respectively. These values are consistent with earlier density functional calculations and recent experiments measuring the crystal nucleation rates from colloidal fluids of polystyrene spheres that have been interpreted [Marr and Gast, Langmuir {\bf 10}, 1348 (1994)] to give an estimate of $\gamma$ for the hard-sphere system of $0.55 \pm 0.02 k_BT/\sigma^2$, slightly lower than the directly determined value reported here.Comment: 4 pages, 4 figures, submitted to Physical Review Letter

Tracking and Data Relay Satellite System (TDRSS) Support of User Spacecraft without TDRSS Transponders

NASA GSFC VNS TSG personnel have proposed the use of TDRSS to obtain telemetry and/or S-band one-way return Doppler tracking data for spacecraft which do not have TDRSS-compatible transponders and therefore were never considered candidates for TDRSS support. For spacecraft with less stable local oscillators (LO), one-way return Doppler tracking data is typically of poor quality. It has been demonstrated using UARS, WIND, and NOAA-J tracking data that the simultaneous use of two TDRSS spacecraft can yield differenced one-way return Doppler data of high quality which is usable for orbit determination by differencing away the effects of oscillator instability

Kinematic Age Estimates for 4 Compact Symmetric Objects from the Pearson-Readhead Survey

Based on multi-epoch observations at 15 and 43 GHz with the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA) we detect significant angular expansions between the two hot spots of 4 Compact Symmetric Objects (CSOs). From these relative motions we derive kinematic ages of between 300 and 1200 years for the radio emission. These ages lend support to the idea that CSOs are produced in a recent phase of activity. These observations also allow us to study the evolution of the hot spots dynamically in individual sources. In all 4 sources the hot spots are separating along the source axis, but in 1031+567 the tip of one hot spot appears to be moving almost orthogonally to the source axis. Jet components, seen in 3 of the 4 sources observed, are found to be moving relativistically outward from the central engines towards the more slowly moving hot spots.Comment: in press at ApJ for v. 541 Oct. 1, 2000, 23 page LaTeX document includes 6 postscript figure

First contemporary case of human infection with Cryptococcus gattii in Puget Sound: Evidence for spread of the Vancouver Island outbreak

We report a case of cryptococcosis due to C. gattii which appears to have been acquired in the Puget Sound region, Washington State. Genotyping confirmed identity to the predominant Vancouver Island genotype. This is the first documented case of human disease by the major Vancouver Island emergence strain acquired within the United States

Sources and transformations of particle-bound polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons in Mexico City

Understanding sources, concentrations, and transformations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in the atmosphere is important because of their potent mutagenicity and carcinogenicity. The measurement of particle-bound PAHs by three different methods during the Mexico City Metropolitan Area field campaign in April 2003 presents a unique opportunity for characterization of these compounds and intercomparison of the methods. The three methods are (1) collection and analysis of bulk samples for time-integrated gas- and particle-phase speciation by gas chromatography/mass spectrometry; (2) aerosol photoionization for fast detection of PAHs on particles' surfaces; and (3) aerosol mass spectrometry for fast analysis of size and chemical composition. This research represents the first time aerosol mass spectrometry has been used to measure ambient PAH concentrations and the first time that fast, real-time methods have been used to quantify PAHs alongside traditional filter-based measurements in an extended field campaign. Speciated PAH measurements suggest that motor vehicles and garbage and wood burning are important sources in Mexico City. The diurnal concentration patterns captured by aerosol photoionization and aerosol mass spectrometry are generally consistent. Ambient concentrations of particle-phase PAHs typically peak at ~110 ng m^-3 during the morning rush hour and rapidly decay due to changes in source activity patterns and dilution as the boundary layer rises, although surface-bound PAH concentrations decay faster. The more rapid decrease in surface versus bulk PAH concentrations during the late morning suggests that freshly emitted combustion-related particles are quickly coated by secondary aerosol material in Mexico City's atmosphere and may also be transformed by heterogeneous reactions

Paedophiles in the community: inter-agency conflict, news leaks and the local press

This article explores the leaking of confidential information about secret Home Office plans to house convicted paedophiles within a local community (albeit inside a prison). It argues that a politics of paedophilia has emerged in which inter-agency consensus on the issue of ‘what to do’ with high-profile sex offenders has broken down. Accordingly, the article situates newspaper ‘outing’ of paedophiles in the community in relation to vigilante journalism and leaked information from official agencies. The article then presents research findings from a case study of news events set in train following a whistle-blowing reaction by Prison Officers’ Association officials to Home Office plans. Drawing from a corpus of 10 interviews with journalists and key protagonists in the story, the article discusses both the dynamics of whistle blowing about paedophiles and also what happens after the whistle has blown

Detectability of Terrestrial Planets in Multi-Planet Systems: Preliminary Report

We ask if Earth-like planets (terrestrial mass and habitable-zone orbit) can be detected in multi-planet systems, using astrometric and radial velocity observations. We report here the preliminary results of double-blind calculations designed to answer this question.Comment: 10 pages, 0 figure

The low temperature interface between the gas and solid phases of hard spheres with a short-ranged attraction

At low temperature, spheres with a very short-ranged attraction exist as a close-packed solid coexisting with an infinitely dilute gas. We find that the ratio of the interfacial tension between these two phases to the thermal energy diverges as the range of the attraction goes to zero. The large tensions when the interparticle attractions are short-ranged may be why globular proteins only crystallise over a narrow range of conditions.Comment: 6 pages, no figures (v2 has change of notation to agree with that of Stell

StreamLab Collaboratory: Experiments, Data Sets, and Research Synthesis

A series of community-led, large-scale laboratory experiments, termed “StreamLab”, were performed by the National Center for Earth-surface Dynamics (NCED) with the purpose of advancing multidisciplinary research, education, and knowledge transfer at the interface of physical/chemical/biological processes in streams, science-based stream restoration practice, and environmental sensing technologies. Two series of experiments, StreamLab06 and StreamLab08, were conducted in the Main Channel of the St. Anthony Falls Laboratory at the University of Minnesota, a flume 84 m long and 2.75 m wide with water fed by the Mississippi River at a rate of up to 8.5 m3/s. The purpose of this paper is to share with the broader community the data collected with the hope of stimulating further analysis and future experimental campaigns toward advancing our predictive understanding of the physical, chemical, and biological processes in streams. Toward this end, a brief summary of the results to date is included and some ideas for further research are provided