Modeling estuarine response to load reductions in a warmer climate: York River Estuary, Virginia, USA

The impact of climate warming on shallow tributary estuaries will be influenced by the complex cycling of nutrients and organic matter, diversity of primary producers, and enhanced benthic-pelagic coupling typical of these systems, along with advection of nutrients, organic matter, and hypoxic water from adjacent systems. This study utilized a parsimonious, reduced-complexity model that combines mechanistic equations with robust, data-driven, empirical formulations to predict how phytoplankton net primary production (NPP), net ecosystem metabolism (NEM), and hypoxia will change under a range of warmer conditions in the York River Estuary, VA, USA, a sub-estuary of Chesapeake Bay. Modeled NPP peaked earlier and responded positively to warming in the winter and spring throughout most of the system due to increased rates of nutrient remineralization; NPP remained elevated during summer and fall in the upper estuary under warming but decreased in the lower estuary. These changes caused the upper estuary to become more autotrophic, while NEM decreased in the lower estuary due to greater stimulation of respiration relative to NPP. Warming increased the predicted temporal and spatial extent of hypoxia, with the upper estuary experiencing a relatively constant increase in the number of hypoxic days with increasing temperature. Hypoxia in the lower estuary increased more rapidly with temperature. Offsetting this increase in hypoxia with climate warming will require additional nutrient and organic matter load reductions from the surrounding watershed and Chesapeake Bay in order to achieve the same level of improvement predicted in the absence of a warming climate

Differential response by bronzed cowbirds to songs of potential hosts in the lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas

How bronzed cowbirds (Molothrus aeneus) find nests to parasitize is poorly known, especially whether they use host vocalizations as sources of information about nest location and status. We conducted 120 point-count surveys, followed by broadcasts of host songs, at Santa Ana National Wildlife Refuge in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas in 2008 and 2009. Bronzed cowbirds responded to songs of potential host species by flying toward the source of the playback as single females or males or multiple females and males. Bronzed cowbirds responded in greater numbers to the songs of oriole species (Icterus) than to olive sparrow (Arremonops rufivirgatus), a lower-quality host species. Such responses by bronzed cowbirds could facilitate the location of host nests for nests of species difficult to find or to look into

Direct measurements of light attenuation by epiphytes on eelgrass \u3cem\u3eZostera marina\u3c/em\u3e

Declines in the seagrass Zostera marina L. in estuaries and lagoons have been attributed in part to reductions in irradiance reaching the seagrass blades. Epiphytes growing on Z. marina have the potential to attenuate a large fraction of the light that would otherwise reach the blades. This problem has previously been studied by measuring light penetration through homogenized epiphytic slurries or through glass slides fouled with epiphytes. However, the latter may not represent the natural succession or species composition found on live Z. marina leaves and the former does not preserve the structure of the epiphytic complex. Further, past studies have not measured attenuation across the full range of epiphytic densities found in the field. In this study, we measured light penetration across a wide range of epiphytic densities by holding scraped and unscraped Z. marina blades over a submerged light sensor. Results compared well with past studies at low epiphyte densities, with strong reductions in light penetration as density increased. However, at higher densities, penetration leveled off to a relatively constant value as the epiphytes floated out from the edges of the blade. Studies using slurries did not capture this phenomenon and thus predicted decreasing penetration down to 0%

Winning In NCAA Womens Soccer: Does The Gender Of The Coach Matter?

While womens intercollegiate soccer has grown rapidly over the past three decades, men still hold nearly two-thirds of all head coaching positions in NCAA Division I womens soccer programs. This paper explores whether the gender of the head coach affects success in winning games. After considering various reasons why gender might matter, we undertake a multiple regression analysis using data from the 2001-2002 season to answer this question empirically. Controlling for other factors that would be expected to influence a teams success, including the quality of the head coach, the level of institutional support and the tradition of the program, we find that the head coachs gender, and also the head coachs age, have statistically significant effects on team success for schools in Divisions I-AA and I-AAA, but not for the major football schools in Division I-A. We close with possible explanations for these results

A guide for performing system safety analysis

A general guide is presented for performing system safety analyses of hardware, software, operations and human elements of an aerospace program. The guide describes a progression of activities that can be effectively applied to identify hazards to personnel and equipment during all periods of system development. The general process of performing safety analyses is described; setting forth in a logical order the information and data requirements, the analytical steps, and the results. These analyses are the technical basis of a system safety program. Although the guidance established by this document cannot replace human experience and judgement, it does provide a methodical approach to the identification of hazards and evaluation of risks to the system

Entrepreneurial capital, social values and Islamic traditions: exploring the growth of women-owned enterprises in Pakistan

Main ArticleThis study seeks to explore the variables contributing to the growth of women-owned enterprises in the Islamic Republic of Pakistan. Based on a previously established multivariate model, it uses two econometric approaches: first classifying variables into predetermined blocks; and second, using the general to specific approach. Statistical analyses and in-depth interviews confirm that women entrepreneurs’ personal resources and social capital have a significant role in their business growth. Further, it reveals that the moral support of immediate family, independent mobility and being allowed to meet with men play a decisive role in the sales and employment growth of women-owned enterprises in an Islamic country such as Pakistan

Modeling the Effect of Hypoxia on Macrobenthos Production in the Lower Rappahannock River, Chesapeake Bay, USA

Hypoxia in Chesapeake Bay has substantially increased in recent decades, with detrimental effects on macrobenthic production; the production of these fauna link energy transfer from primary consumers to epibenthic and demersal predators. As such, the development of accurate predictive models that determine the impact of hypoxia on macrobenthic production is important. A continuous-time, biomass-based model was developed for the lower Rappahannock River, a Bay tributary prone to seasonal hypoxia. Phytoplankton, zooplankton, and macrobenthic state variables were modeled, with a focus on quantitatively constraining the effect of hypoxia on macrobenthic biomass. This was accomplished through regression with Z\u27: a sigmoidal function between macrobenthic biomass and dissolved oxygen concentration, derived using macrobenthic data collected from the Rappahannock River during the summers of 2007 and 2008, and applied to compute hypoxia-induced mortality as a rate process. The model was verified using independent monitoring data collected by the Chesapeake Bay Program. Simulations showed that macrobenthic biomass was strongly linked to dissolved oxygen concentrations, with fluctuations in biomass related to the duration and severity of hypoxia. Our model demonstrated that hypoxia negatively affected macrobenthic biomass, as longer durations of hypoxia and greater hypoxic severity resulted in an increasing loss in biomass. This exercise represents an important contribution to modeling anthropogenically impacted coastal ecosystems, by providing an empirically constrained relationship between hypoxia and macrobenthic biomass, and applying that empirical relationship in a mechanistic model to quantify the effect of the severity, duration, and frequency of hypoxia on benthic biomass dynamics

Impacts of Harmful Algal Blooms on Dissolved Organic Carbon in the Lower York River Estuary

Estuaries are important sites of carbon cycling; however, the impact of increasingly prevalent harmful algal blooms (HABs) on cycling in these systems remains unclear. To examine the impact of two bloom species, Alexandrium monilatum and Margalefidinium polykrikoides on the quantity and composition of the dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and chromophoric dissolved organic matter (CDOM) pools and rates of benthic and pelagic microbial respiration in the lower York River Estuary, VA, a series field samplings and laboratory incubations were performed. The two HAB species greatly increased the size of the DOC and CDOM pools and altered the character of the CDOM pool, causing it to shift towards higher molecular weights and lower levels of aromaticity. DOC released by A. monilatum and M. polykrikoides both stimulated increased respiration by pelagic microbes, but displayed different levels of microbial lability in the DOC produced suggesting species level differences in how HABs affect DOC cycling. HAB produced organic matter did not stimulate increased levels of benthic microbial respiration as measured in sediment core incubations, suggesting that benthic microbial communities are not carbon limited. These findings show that HABs alter the quality and quantity of the DOC pool which in turn affects pelagic microbial respiration. This study also highlighted the need for species level analysis of HABs to be factored in to future estuarine carbon budgets in HAB affected systems

NESTING ECOLOGY OF THE NORTHERN BEARDLESSTYRANNULET (CAMPTOSTOMA IMBERBE) IN THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY OF TEXAS, U.S.A.

During 2002–2003, we studied the breeding ecology of the Northern Beardless-Tyrannulet (Camptostoma imberbe), a poorly known and rare permanent resident in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas, United States of America. We found 28 nests in clusters of Spanish moss (Tillandsia usneoides) or ball moss (T. recurvata), 93% of which were in cedar elm (Ulmus crassifolia) trees. Nest-building, incubation, and nestling periods averaged 7.0, 14.0, and 18.5 days, respectively. Of the 28 nests, 43% were successful, while 38% of the failed nests showed obvious signs of depredation. Nests were located in areas with denser Tillandsia growth and with taller trees than nearby non-used areas. Availability of this habitat may limit the population size of Northern Beardless-Tyrannulets in the Lower Rio Grande Valley

An updated model for estimating the TMDL-related benefits of oyster reef restoration Harris Creek, Maryland, USA

In 2014, a user-friendly, web-accessible model was developed that allowed restoration practitioners and resource managers to easily estimate the TMDLrelated benefits of oyster reef (Crassostrea virginica) restoration per unit area, run restoration scenarios in Harris Creek, MD to optimize restoration planning and implementation, and calculate the benefits of the chosen plan. The model was rooted in scientifically defensible data and was readily transferrable to systems throughout the Chesapeake Bay and Eastern Shore. The model operated in five vertically well-mixed boxes along the main axis of the creek. Exchanges among creeks were computed using a tidal prism approach and were compared to exchanges provided from a high resolution 3D hydrodynamic model. Watershed inputs for the model were obtained for the Harris Creek sub-watershed from the Phase V Chesapeake Bay Program Watershed Model. The base model simulated daily concentrations over an annual cycle of chlorophyll-a, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P), dissolved oxygen, total suspended solids, the biomass of benthic microalgae, and the water column and sediment pools of labile organic carbon (C) and associated N and P. Water quality data for model forcing and calibration were obtained from the Chesapeake Bay Program, the Choptank Riverkeeper, the University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, and the Maryland Department of Natural Resources. An oyster sub-model was coupled to this base model to compute the volume of water filtered, removal of phytoplankton, suspended solids, and associated nutrients via filtration, recycling of nutrients and consumption of oxygen by oyster respiration, production of feces, N and P accumulation in oyster tissues and shell, oyster-enhanced denitrification, and N and P burial associated with restored reefs. The completed model was served online and operated through a web browser, enabling users to conduct scenario analysis by entering box-specific values for acres restored, restored oyster density, and restored oyster size, as well as the economic value of associated N and P removal. The updated model incorporates all aspects of the previous model but replaces oyster related data collected outside Harris Creek with site-specific data, and now includes restored oyster populations and water quality data through 2016. It also incorporates the impacts of two common, reef-associated filter feeding organisms: the hooked mussel Ischadium recurvum and the sea squirt Molgula manhattensis. Additional data collected in Harris Creek and incorporated into the model include: biomass of benthic microalgae, biogeochemical fluxes in relation to oyster biomass, and the biomass density and distribution of the dominant non-oyster reef filter feeders (I. recurvum, and M. manhattensis). The revised model incorporates an improved estimate of annual oyster growth, uses an improved method for estimating N and P sequestered in tissues and shells, and accounts for the prerestoration oyster population in Harris Creek. The model also incorporates data on the filtration capacity of I. recurvum and M. manhattensis in relation to C. virginica collected as part of a previous study (not in Harris Creek) by Kellogg and Newell (unpublished data)