Ice Caps and Ice Belts: The Effects of Obliquity on Ice−Albedo Feedback

Planetary obliquity determines the meridional distribution of the annual mean insolation. For obliquity exceeding 55°, the weakest insolation occurs at the equator. Stable partial snow and ice cover on such a planet would be in the form of a belt about the equator rather than polar caps. An analytical model of planetary climate is used to investigate the stability of ice caps and ice belts over the widest possible range of parameters. The model is a non-dimensional diffusive Energy Balance Model, representing insolation, heat transport, and ice-albedo feedback on a spherical planet. A complete analytical solution for any obliquity is given and validated against numerical solutions of a seasonal model in the "deep-water" regime of weak seasonal ice line migration. Multiple equilibria and unstable transitions between climate states (ice-free, Snowball, or ice cap/belt) are found over wide swaths of parameter space, including a "Large Ice-Belt Instability" and "Small Ice-Belt Instability" at high obliquity. The Snowball catastrophe is avoided at weak radiative forcing in two different scenarios: weak albedo feedback and inefficient heat transport (favoring stable partial ice cover), or efficient transport at high obliquity (favoring ice-free conditions). From speculative assumptions about distributions of planetary parameters, three-fourths to four-fifths of all planets with stable partial ice cover should be in the form of Earth-like polar caps

Arctic climate response to forcing from light-absorbing particles in snow and sea ice in CESM

The presence of light-absorbing aerosol particles deposited on arctic snow and sea ice influences the surface albedo, causing greater shortwave absorption, warming, and loss of snow and sea ice, lowering the albedo further. The Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1) now includes the radiative effects of light-absorbing particles in snow on land and sea ice and in sea ice itself. We investigate the model response to the deposition of black carbon and dust to both snow and sea ice. For these purposes we employ a slab ocean version of CESM1, using the Community Atmosphere Model version 4 (CAM4), run to equilibrium for year 2000 levels of CO<sub>2</sub> and fixed aerosol deposition. We construct experiments with and without aerosol deposition, with dust or black carbon deposition alone, and with varying quantities of black carbon and dust to approximate year 1850 and 2000 deposition fluxes. The year 2000 deposition fluxes of both dust and black carbon cause 1–2 °C of surface warming over large areas of the Arctic Ocean and sub-Arctic seas in autumn and winter and in patches of Northern land in every season. Atmospheric circulation changes are a key component of the surface-warming pattern. Arctic sea ice thins by on average about 30 cm. Simulations with year 1850 aerosol deposition are not substantially different from those with year 2000 deposition, given constant levels of CO<sub>2</sub>. The climatic impact of particulate impurities deposited over land exceeds that of particles deposited over sea ice. Even the surface warming over the sea ice and sea ice thinning depends more upon light-absorbing particles deposited over land. For CO<sub>2</sub> doubled relative to year 2000 levels, the climate impact of particulate impurities in snow and sea ice is substantially lower than for the year 2000 equilibrium simulation

VPLanet: The Virtual Planet Simulator

We describe a software package called VPLanet that simulates fundamental aspects of planetary system evolution over Gyr timescales, with a focus on investigating habitable worlds. In this initial release, eleven physics modules are included that model internal, atmospheric, rotational, orbital, stellar, and galactic processes. Many of these modules can be coupled simultaneously to simulate the evolution of terrestrial planets, gaseous planets, and stars. The code is validated by reproducing a selection of observations and past results. VPLanet is written in C and designed so that the user can choose the physics modules to apply to an individual object at runtime without recompiling, i.e., a single executable can simulate the diverse phenomena that are relevant to a wide range of planetary and stellar systems. This feature is enabled by matrices and vectors of function pointers that are dynamically allocated and populated based on user input. The speed and modularity of VPLanet enables large parameter sweeps and the versatility to add/remove physical phenomena to assess their importance. VPLanet is publicly available from a repository that contains extensive documentation, numerous examples, Python scripts for plotting and data management, and infrastructure for community input and future development.Comment: 75 pages, 34 figures, 10 tables, accepted to the Proceedings of the Astronomical Society of the Pacific. Source code, documentation, and examples available at https://github.com/VirtualPlanetaryLaboratory/vplane

100 Years of Earth System Model Development

This is the final version. Available from American Meteorological Society via the DOI in this recordToday’s global Earth System Models began as simple regional models of tropospheric weather systems. Over the past century, the physical realism of the models has steadily increased, while the scope of the models has broadened to include the global troposphere and stratosphere, the ocean, the vegetated land surface, and terrestrial ice sheets. This chapter gives an approximately chronological account of the many and profound conceptual and technological advances that made today’s models possible. For brevity, we omit any discussion of the roles of chemistry and biogeochemistry, and terrestrial ice sheets

Antarctic Temperatures Over the Past Two Centuries from Ice Cores

We present a reconstruction of Antarctic mean surface temperatures over the past two centuries based on water stable isotope records from high-resolution, precisely dated ice cores. Both instrumental and reconstructed temperatures indicate large interannual to decadal scale variability, with the dominant pattern being anti-phase anomalies between the main Antarctic continent and the Antarctic Peninsula region. Comparative analysis of the instrumental Southern Hemisphere (SH) mean temperature record and the reconstruction suggests that at longer timescales, temperatures over the Antarctic continent vary in phase with the SH mean. Our reconstruction suggests that Antarctic temperatures have increased by about 0.2 degrees C since the late nineteenth century. The variability and the long-term trends are strongly modulated by the SH Annular Mode in the atmospheric circulation

Global warming: is weight loss a solution?

The current climate change has been most likely caused by the increased greenhouse gas emissions. We have looked at the major greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide (CO2), and estimated the reduction in the CO2 emissions that would occur with the theoretical global weight loss. The calculations were based on our previous weight loss study, investigating the effects of a low-carbohydrate diet on body weight, body composition and resting metabolic rate of obese volunteers with type 2 diabetes. At 6 months we observed decreases in weight, fat mass, fat free mass and CO2 production. We estimated that a 10 kg weight loss of all obese and overweight people would result in a decrease of 49.560 Mt of CO2 per year, which would equal to 0.2 % of the CO2 emitted globally in 2007. This reduction could help meet the CO2 emission reduction targets and unquestionably would be of a great benefit to the global health

A mathematical framework for analysis of water tracers: Part 1: Development of theory and application to the preindustrial mean state

A new matrix operator framework is developed to analyze results from climate modeling studies that employ numerical water tracers (WTs), which track the movement of water in the aerial hydrological cycle from evaporation to precipitation. Model WT output is related to the fundamental equation of hydrology, and the moisture flux divergence is subdivided into the divergence of locally evaporated moisture and the convergence of remotely evaporated moisture. The formulation also separates locally and remotely sourced precipitation. The remote contribution (also the remote moisture convergence) may be further subdivided into zonal, meridional, intrabasin, and interbasin parts. This framework is applied to the preindustrial climate as simulated by a global climate model in which water has been tagged in 10° latitude bands in each of the major ocean basins, and in which each major land mass has been tagged separately. New insights from the method reveal fundamental differences between the major ocean basins in locally sourced precipitation, remotely sourced precipitation, and their relative partitioning. Per unit area, the subtropical Atlantic is the largest global moisture source, providing precipitable water to adjacent land areas and to the eastern Pacific tropics while retaining the least for in situ precipitation. Subtropical moisture is least divergent over the Pacific, which is the smallest moisture source (per unit area) for global land areas. Basins also differ in how subtropical moisture is partitioned between tropical, midlatitude, and land regions. Part II will apply this framework to hydrological cycle perturbations due to CO₂ doubling.Keywords: linear algebra, numerical water tracers, hydrologic cycle, big data analysis, matrix operatorKeywords: linear algebra, numerical water tracers, hydrologic cycle, big data analysis, matrix operato