Decision making with belief functions: Compatibility and incompatibility with the sure-thing principle

This article studies situations in which information is ambiguous and only part of it can be probabilized. It is shown that the information can be modeled through belief functions if and only if the nonprobabilizable information is subject to the principles of complete ignorance. Next the representability of decisions by belief functions on outcomes is justified by means of a neutrality axiom. The natural weakening of Savage's sure-thing principle to unambiguous events is examined and its implications for decision making are identified

Depletion of New Neurons by Image Guided Irradiation

Ionizing radiation continues to be a relevant tool in both imaging and the treatment of cancer. Experimental uses of focal irradiation have recently been expanded to studies of new neurons in the adult brain. Such studies have shown cognitive deficits following radiation treatment and raised caution as to possible unintentional effects that may occur in humans. Conflicting outcomes of the effects of irradiation on adult neurogenesis suggest that the effects are either transient or permanent. In this study, we used an irradiation apparatus employed in the treatment of human tumors to assess radiation effects on rat neurogenesis. For subjects we used adult male rats (Sprague-Dawley) under anesthesia. The irradiation beam was directed at the hippocampus, a center for learning and memory, and the site of neurogenic activity in adult brain. The irradiation was applied at a dose-rate 0.6 Gy/min for total single-fraction, doses ranging from 0.5 to 10.0 Gy. The animals were returned to home cages and recovered with no sign of any side effects. The neurogenesis was measured either 1 week or 6 weeks after the irradiation. At 1 week, the number of neuronal progenitors was reduced in a dose-dependent manner with the 50% reduction at 0.78 Gy. The dose–response curve was well fitted by a double exponential suggesting two processes. Examination of the tissue with quantitative immunohistochemistry revealed a dominant low-dose effect on neuronal progenitors resulting in 80% suppression of neurogenesis. This effect was partially reversible, possibly due to compensatory proliferation of the remaining precursors. At higher doses (>5 Gy) there was additional, nearly complete block of neurogenesis without compensatory proliferation. We conclude that notwithstanding the usefulness of irradiation for experimental purposes, the exposure of human subjects to doses often used in radiotherapy treatment could be damaging and cause cognitive impairments

A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Intrafraction motion of the prostate during an IMRT session: a fiducial-based 3D measurement with Cone-beam CT

Background: Image-guidance systems allow accurate interfractional repositioning of IMRT treatments, however, these may require up to 15 minutes. Therefore intrafraction motion might have an impact on treatment precision. 3D geometric data regarding intrafraction prostate motion are rare; we therefore assessed its magnitude with pre- and post-treatment fiducial-based imaging with cone-beam-CT (CBCT). Methods: 39 IMRT fractions in 5 prostate cancer patients after (125)I-seed implantation were evaluated. Patient position was corrected based on the (125)I-seeds after pre-treatment CBCT. Immediately after treatment delivery, a second CBCT was performed. Differences in bone- and fiducial position were measured by seed-based grey-value matching. Results: Fraction time was 13.6 +/- 1.6 minutes. Median overall displacement vector length of (125)Iseeds was 3 mm (M = 3 mm, Sigma = 0.9 mm, sigma = 1.7 mm; M: group systematic error, Sigma: SD of systematic error, sigma: SD of random error). Median displacement vector of bony structures was 1.84 mm (M = 2.9 mm, Sigma = 1 mm, sigma = 3.2 mm). Median displacement vector length of the prostate relative to bony structures was 1.9 mm (M = 3 mm, Sigma = 1.3 mm, sigma = 2.6 mm). Conclusion: a) Overall displacement vector length during an IMRT session is < 3 mm. b) Positioning devices reducing intrafraction bony displacements can further reduce overall intrafraction motion. c) Intrafraction prostate motion relative to bony structures is < 2 mm and may be further reduced by institutional protocols and reduction of IMRT duration

Global patient outcomes after elective surgery: prospective cohort study in 27 low-, middle- and high-income countries.

BACKGROUND: As global initiatives increase patient access to surgical treatments, there remains a need to understand the adverse effects of surgery and define appropriate levels of perioperative care. METHODS: We designed a prospective international 7-day cohort study of outcomes following elective adult inpatient surgery in 27 countries. The primary outcome was in-hospital complications. Secondary outcomes were death following a complication (failure to rescue) and death in hospital. Process measures were admission to critical care immediately after surgery or to treat a complication and duration of hospital stay. A single definition of critical care was used for all countries. RESULTS: A total of 474 hospitals in 19 high-, 7 middle- and 1 low-income country were included in the primary analysis. Data included 44 814 patients with a median hospital stay of 4 (range 2-7) days. A total of 7508 patients (16.8%) developed one or more postoperative complication and 207 died (0.5%). The overall mortality among patients who developed complications was 2.8%. Mortality following complications ranged from 2.4% for pulmonary embolism to 43.9% for cardiac arrest. A total of 4360 (9.7%) patients were admitted to a critical care unit as routine immediately after surgery, of whom 2198 (50.4%) developed a complication, with 105 (2.4%) deaths. A total of 1233 patients (16.4%) were admitted to a critical care unit to treat complications, with 119 (9.7%) deaths. Despite lower baseline risk, outcomes were similar in low- and middle-income compared with high-income countries. CONCLUSIONS: Poor patient outcomes are common after inpatient surgery. Global initiatives to increase access to surgical treatments should also address the need for safe perioperative care. STUDY REGISTRATION: ISRCTN5181700

Ebola Zaire Virus Blocks Type I Interferon Production by Exploiting the Host SUMO Modification Machinery

Ebola Zaire virus is highly pathogenic for humans, with case fatality rates approaching 90% in large outbreaks in Africa. The virus replicates in macrophages and dendritic cells (DCs), suppressing production of type I interferons (IFNs) while inducing the release of large quantities of proinflammatory cytokines. Although the viral VP35 protein has been shown to inhibit IFN responses, the mechanism by which it blocks IFN production has not been fully elucidated. We expressed VP35 from a mouse-adapted variant of Ebola Zaire virus in murine DCs by retroviral gene transfer, and tested for IFN transcription upon Newcastle Disease virus (NDV) infection and toll-like receptor signaling. We found that VP35 inhibited IFN transcription in DCs following these stimuli by disabling the activity of IRF7, a transcription factor required for IFN transcription. By yeast two-hybrid screens and coimmunoprecipitation assays, we found that VP35 interacted with IRF7, Ubc9 and PIAS1. The latter two are the host SUMO E2 enzyme and E3 ligase, respectively. VP35, while not itself a SUMO ligase, increased PIAS1-mediated SUMOylation of IRF7, and repressed Ifn transcription. In contrast, VP35 did not interfere with the activation of NF-κB, which is required for induction of many proinflammatory cytokines. Our findings indicate that Ebola Zaire virus exploits the cellular SUMOylation machinery for its advantage and help to explain how the virus overcomes host innate defenses, causing rapidly overwhelming infection to produce a syndrome resembling fulminant septic shock