Macro stress testing with a macroeconomic credit risk model: Application to the French manufacturing sector.

The aim of this paper is to build and estimate a macroeconomic model of credit risk for the French manufacturing sector. This model is based on Wilson's CreditPortfolioView model (1997a, 1997b); it enables us to simulate loss distributions for a credit portfolio for several macroeconomic scenarios. We implement two simulation procedures based on two assumptions relative to probabilities of default (PDs): in the first procedure, firms are assumed to have identical default probabilities; in the second, individual risk is taken into account. The empirical results indicate that these simulation procedures lead to quite different loss distributions. For instance, a negative one standard deviation shock on output leads to a maximum loss of 3.07% of the financial debt of the French manufacturing sector, with a probability of 99%, under the identical default probability hypothesis versus 2.61% with individual default probabilities.macro stress test ; credit risk model ; loss distribution.

Hydrological responses of a watershed to historical land use evolution and future land use scenarios under climate change conditions

Watershed runoff is closely related to land use but this influence is difficult to quantify. This study focused on the Chaudière River watershed (Québec, Canada) and had two objectives: (i) to quantify the influence of historical agricultural land use evolution on watershed runoff; and (ii) to assess the effect of future land use evolution scenarios under climate change conditions (CC). To achieve this, we used the integrated modeling system GIBSI. Past land use evolution was constructed using satellite images that were integrated into GIBSI. The general trend was an increase of agricultural land in the 80's, a slight decrease in the beginning of the 90's and a steady state over the last ten years. Simulations showed strong correlations between land use evolution and water discharge at the watershed outlet. For the prospective approach, we first assessed the effect of CC and then defined two opposite land use evolution scenarios for the horizon 2025 based on two different trends: agriculture intensification and sustainable development. Simulations led to a wide range of results depending on the climatologic models and gas emission scenarios considered, varying from a decrease to an increase of annual and monthly water discharge. In this context, the two land use scenarios induced opposite effects on water discharge and low flow sequences, especially during the growing season. However, due to the large uncertainty linked to CC simulations, it is difficult to conclude that one land use scenario provides a better adaptation to CC than another. Nevertheless, this study shows that land use is a key factor that has to be taken into account when predicting potential future hydrological responses of a watershed

Comparison of established and emerging biodosimetry assays

Rapid biodosimetry tools are required to assist with triage in the case of a large-scale radiation incident. Here, we aimed to determine the dose-assessment accuracy of the well-established dicentric chromosome assay (DCA) and cytokinesis-block micronucleus assay (CBMN) in comparison to the emerging γ-H2AX foci and gene expression assays for triage mode biodosimetry and radiation injury assessment. Coded blood samples exposed to 10 X-ray doses (240 kVp, 1 Gy/min) of up to 6.4 Gy were sent to participants for dose estimation. Report times were documented for each laboratory and assay. The mean absolute difference (MAD) of estimated doses relative to the true doses was calculated. We also merged doses into binary dose categories of clinical relevance and examined accuracy, sensitivity and specificity of the assays. Dose estimates were reported by the first laboratories within 0.3-0.4 days of receipt of samples for the γ-H2AX and gene expression assays compared to 2.4 and 4 days for the DCA and CBMN assays, respectively. Irrespective of the assay we found a 2.5-4-fold variation of interlaboratory accuracy per assay and lowest MAD values for the DCA assay (0.16 Gy) followed by CBMN (0.34 Gy), gene expression (0.34 Gy) and γ-H2AX (0.45 Gy) foci assay. Binary categories of dose estimates could be discriminated with equal efficiency for all assays, but at doses ≥1.5 Gy a 10% decrease in efficiency was observed for the foci assay, which was still comparable to the CBMN assay. In conclusion, the DCA has been confirmed as the gold standard biodosimetry method, but in situations where speed and throughput are more important than ultimate accuracy, the emerging rapid molecular assays have the potential to become useful triage tools

Alpha-particle-induced complex chromosome exchanges transmitted through extra-thymic lymphopoiesis in vitro show evidence of emerging genomic instability

Human exposure to high-linear energy transfer α-particles includes environmental (e.g. radon gas and its decay progeny), medical (e.g. radiopharmaceuticals) and occupational (nuclear industry) sources. The associated health risks of α-particle exposure for lung cancer are well documented however the risk estimates for leukaemia remain uncertain. To further our understanding of α-particle effects in target cells for leukaemogenesis and also to seek general markers of individual exposure to α-particles, this study assessed the transmission of chromosomal damage initially-induced in human haemopoietic stem and progenitor cells after exposure to high-LET α-particles. Cells surviving exposure were differentiated into mature T-cells by extra-thymic T-cell differentiation in vitro. Multiplex fluorescence in situ hybridisation (M-FISH) analysis of naïve T-cell populations showed the occurrence of stable (clonal) complex chromosome aberrations consistent with those that are characteristically induced in spherical cells by the traversal of a single α-particle track. Additionally, complex chromosome exchanges were observed in the progeny of irradiated mature T-cell populations. In addition to this, newly arising de novo chromosome aberrations were detected in cells which possessed clonal markers of α-particle exposure and also in cells which did not show any evidence of previous exposure, suggesting ongoing genomic instability in these populations. Our findings support the usefulness and reliability of employing complex chromosome exchanges as indicators of past or ongoing exposure to high-LET radiation and demonstrate the potential applicability to evaluate health risks associated with α-particle exposure.This work was supported by the Department of Health, UK. Contract RRX95 (RMA NSDTG)

Dicentric Dose Estimates for Patients Undergoing Radiotherapy in the RTGene Study to Assess Blood Dosimetric Models and the New Bayesian Method for Gradient Exposure.

The RTGene study was focused on the development and validation of new transcriptional biomarkers for prediction of individual radiotherapy patient responses to ionizing radiation. In parallel, for validation purposes, this study incorporated conventional biomarkers of radiation exposure, including the dicentric assay. Peripheral blood samples were taken with ethical approval and informed consent from a total of 20 patients undergoing external beam radiotherapy for breast, lung, gastrointestinal or genitourinary tumors. For the dicentric assay, two samples were taken from each patient: prior to radiotherapy and before the final fraction. Blood samples were set up using standard methods for the dicentric assay. All the baseline samples had dicentric frequencies consistent with the expected background for the normal population. For blood taken before the final fraction, all the samples displayed distributions of aberrations, which are indicative of partial-body exposures. Whole-body and partial-body cytogenetic doses were calculated with reference to a 250-kVp X-ray calibration curve and then compared to the dose to blood derived using two newly developed blood dosimetric models. Initial comparisons indicated that the relationship between these measures of dose appear very promising, with a correlation of 0.88 (P = 0.001). A new Bayesian zero-inflated Poisson finite mixture method was applied to the dicentric data, and partial-body dose estimates showed no significant difference (P > 0.999) from those calculated by the contaminated Poisson technique. The next step will be further development and validation in a larger patient group

Realising the European network of biodosimetry: RENEB-status quo

Creating a sustainable network in biological and retrospective dosimetry that involves a large number of experienced laboratories throughout the European Union (EU) will significantly improve the accident and emergency response capabilities in case of a large-scale radiological emergency. A well-organised cooperative action involving EU laboratories will offer the best chance for fast and trustworthy dose assessments that are urgently needed in an emergency situation. To this end, the EC supports the establishment of a European network in biological dosimetry (RENEB). The RENEB project started in January 2012 involving cooperation of 23 organisations from 16 European countries. The purpose of RENEB is to increase the biodosimetry capacities in case of large-scale radiological emergency scenarios. The progress of the project since its inception is presented, comprising the consolidation process of the network with its operational platform, intercomparison exercises, training activities, proceedings in quality assurance and horizon scanning for new methods and partners. Additionally, the benefit of the network for the radiation research community as a whole is addressed

Reduced Quantitative Ultrasound Bone Mineral Density in HIV-Infected Patients on Antiretroviral Therapy in Senegal

Background: Bone status in HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral treatment (ART) is poorly documented in resource-limited settings. We compared bone mineral density between HIV-infected patients and control subjects from Dakar, Senegal. Methods: A total of 207 (134 women and 73 men) HIV-infected patients from an observational cohort in Dakar (ANRS 1215) and 207 age-and sex-matched controls from the general population were enrolled. Bone mineral density was assessed by quantitative ultrasound (QUS) at the calcaneus, an alternative to the reference method (i.e. dual X-absorptiometry), often not available in resource-limited countries. Results: Mean age was 47.0 (+/- 8.5) years. Patients had received ART for a median duration of 8.8 years; 45% received a protease inhibitor and 27% tenofovir; 84% had undetectable viral load. Patients had lower body mass index (BMI) than controls (23 versus 26 kg/m(2), P<0.001). In unadjusted analysis, QUS bone mineral density was lower in HIV-infected patients than in controls (difference: -0.36 standard deviation, 95% confidence interval (CI): -0.59;-0.12, P = 0.003). Adjusting for BMI, physical activity, smoking and calcium intake attenuated the difference (-0.27, CI: -0.53; -0.002, P = 0.05). Differences in BMI between patients and controls explained a third of the difference in QUS bone mineral density. Among patients, BMI was independently associated with QUS bone mineral density (P<0.001). An association between undetectable viral load and QUS bone density was also suggested (beta = 0.48, CI: 0.02; 0.93; P = 0.04). No association between protease inhibitor or tenofovir use and QUS bone mineral density was found. Conclusion: Senegalese HIV-infected patients had reduced QUS bone mineral density in comparison with control subjects, in part related to their lower BMI. Further investigation is needed to clarify the clinical significance of these observations