The Legitimacy, Accountability, and Ownership of an Impact-Based Forecasting Model in Disaster Governance

The global shift within disaster governance from disaster response to preparedness and risk reduction includes the emergency of novel Early Warning Systems such as impact based forecasting and forecast-based financing. In this new paradigm, funds usually reserved for response can be released before a disaster happens when an impact-based forecast—i.e., the expected humanitarian impact as a result of the forecasted weather—reaches a predefined danger level. The development of these impact-based forecasting models are promising, but they also come with significant implementation challenges. This article presents the data-driven impact-based forecasting model as developed by 510, an initiative of the Netherlands Red Cross. It elaborates on how questions on legitimacy, accountability and ownership influenced the implementation of the model within the Philippines with the Philippine Red Cross and the local government as the main stakeholders. The findings imply that the exchange of knowledge between the designer and manufacturer of impact-based models and the end users of those models fall short if novel Early Warnign Systems are seen as just a matter of technology transfer. Instead the development and implementation of impact based models should be based on mutual understanding of the users’ needs and the developers of such models

Why We Can No Longer Ignore Consecutive Disasters

In recent decades, a striking number of countries have suffered from consecutive disasters: events whose impacts overlap both spatially and temporally, while recovery is still under way. The risk of consecutive disasters will increase due to growing exposure, the interconnectedness of human society, and the increased frequency and intensity of nontectonic hazard. This paper provides an overview of the different types of consecutive disasters, their causes, and impacts. The impacts can be distinctly different from disasters occurring in isolation (both spatially and temporally) from other disasters, noting that full isolation never occurs. We use existing empirical disaster databases to show the global probabilistic occurrence for selected hazard types. Current state‐of‐the art risk assessment models and their outputs do not allow for a thorough representation and analysis of consecutive disasters. This is mainly due to the many challenges that are introduced by addressing and combining hazards of different nature, and accounting for their interactions and dynamics. Disaster risk management needs to be more holistic and codesigned between researchers, policy makers, first responders, and companies

A Distinct Layer of the Medulla Integrates Sky Compass Signals in the Brain of an Insect

Mass migration of desert locusts is a common phenomenon in North Africa and the Middle East but how these insects navigate is still poorly understood. Laboratory studies suggest that locusts are able to exploit the sky polarization pattern as a navigational cue. Like other insects locusts detect polarized light through a specialized dorsal rim area (DRA) of the eye. Polarization signals are transmitted through the optic lobe to the anterior optic tubercle (AOTu) and, finally, to the central complex in the brain. Whereas neurons of the AOTu integrate sky polarization and chromatic cues in a daytime dependent manner, the central complex holds a topographic representation of azimuthal directions suggesting a role as an internal sky compass. To understand further the integration of sky compass cues we studied polarization-sensitive (POL) neurons in the medulla that may be intercalated between DRA photoreceptors and AOTu neurons. Five types of POL-neuron were characterized and four of these in multiple recordings. All neurons had wide arborizations in medulla layer 4 and most, additionally, in the dorsal rim area of the medulla and in the accessory medulla, the presumed circadian clock. The neurons showed type-specific orientational tuning to zenithal polarized light and azimuth tuning to unpolarized green and UV light spots. In contrast to neurons of the AOTu, we found no evidence for color opponency and daytime dependent adjustment of sky compass signals. Therefore, medulla layer 4 is a distinct stage in the integration of sky compass signals that precedes the time-compensated integration of celestial cues in the AOTu

Microstructural analysis of sands with varying degrees of internal stability

Internal erosion involves the migration of particles through a geotechnical structure. Internal erosion poses a significant hazard to embankment dams and flood embankments. The fundamental mechanisms operate at the particle scale and a thorough understanding of these mechanisms can inform the filter design and specification process and reduce the hazard that internal erosion is known to pose to many engineered embankment structures. Engineers have long acknowledged the importance of the grain scale interactions, but until recently, explanations of the mechanisms have been purely hypothetical, as direct observation of the internal structure of filters was not possible. Recent research has used the discrete-element method to establish a particle-scale basis for Ke´zdi’s filter internal stability criterion. The discrete-element method can provide significant useful data on soil microstructure, so a discrete-element method model is inherently ideal. This study therefore examines a number of real sand samples with varying degrees of internal stability at the particle scale using high-resolution microcomputed tomography. The correlation between coordination number and internal stability is confirmed, with the coordination number values being significantly higher for the real material

Early life adversity and serotonin transporter gene variation interact at the level of the adrenal gland to affect the adult hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal axis

The short allelic variant of the serotonin transporter (5-HTT) promoter-linked polymorphic region (5-HTTLPR) has been associated with the etiology of major depression by interaction with early life stress (ELS). Furthermore, 5-HTTLPR has been associated with abnormal functioning of the stress-responsive hypothalamo-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. Here, we examined if, and at what level, the HPA-axis is affected in an animal model for ELS × 5-HTTLPR interactions. Heterozygous and homozygous 5-HTT knockout rats and their wild-type littermates were exposed daily at postnatal days 2–14 to 3 h of maternal separation. When grown to adulthood, plasma levels of adrenocorticotropic hormone (ACTH), and the major rat glucocorticoid, corticosterone (CORT), were measured. Furthermore, the gene expression of key HPA-axis players at the level of the hypothalamus, pituitary and adrenal glands was assessed. No 5-HTT genotype × ELS interaction effects on gene expression were observed at the level of the hypothalamus or pituitary. However, we found significant 5-HTT genotype × ELS interaction effects for plasma CORT levels and adrenal mRNA levels of the ACTH receptor, such that 5-HTT deficiency was associated under control conditions with increased, but after ELS with decreased basal HPA-axis activity. With the use of an in vitro adrenal assay, naïve 5-HTT knockout rats were furthermore shown to display increased adrenal ACTH sensitivity. Therefore, we conclude that basal HPA-axis activity is affected by the interaction of 5- HTT genotype and ELS, and is programmed, within the axis itself, predominantly at the level of the adrenal gland. This study therefore emphasizes the importance of the adrenal gland for HPA-related psychiatric disorders

Neurochemical Architecture of the Central Complex Related to Its Function in the Control of Grasshopper Acoustic Communication

The central complex selects and coordinates the species- and situation-specific song production in acoustically communicating grasshoppers. Control of sound production is mediated by several neurotransmitters and modulators, their receptors and intracellular signaling pathways. It has previously been shown that muscarinic cholinergic excitation in the central complex promotes sound production whereas both GABA and nitric oxide/cyclic GMP signaling suppress its performance. The present immunocytochemical and pharmacological study investigates the question whether GABA and nitric oxide mediate inhibition of sound production independently. Muscarinic ACh receptors are expressed by columnar output neurons of the central complex that innervate the lower division of the central body and terminate in the lateral accessory lobes. GABAergic tangential neurons that innervate the lower division of the central body arborize in close proximity of columnar neurons and thus may directly inhibit these central complex output neurons. A subset of these GABAergic tangential neurons accumulates cyclic GMP following the release of nitric oxide from neurites in the upper division of the central body. While sound production stimulated by muscarine injection into the central complex is suppressed by co-application of sodium nitroprusside, picrotoxin-stimulated singing was not affected by co-application of this nitric oxide donor, indicating that nitric oxide mediated inhibition requires functional GABA signaling. Hence, grasshopper sound production is controlled by processing of information in the lower division of the central body which is subject to modulation by nitric oxide released from neurons in the upper division

Appropriate medication use in Dutch terminal care:study protocol of a multicentre stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial (the AMUSE study)

Background: Polypharmacy is common among patients with a limited life expectancy, even shortly before death. This is partly inevitable, because these patients often have multiple symptoms which need to be alleviated. However, the use of potentially inappropriate medications (PIMs) in these patients is also common. Although patients and relatives are often willing to deprescribe medication, physicians are sometimes reluctant due to the lack of evidence on appropriate medication management for patients in the last phase of life. The aim of the AMUSE study is to investigate whether the use of CDSS-OPTIMED, a software program that gives weekly personalized medication recommendations to attending physicians of patients with a limited life expectancy, improves patients’ quality of life. Methods: A multicentre stepped-wedge cluster randomized controlled trial will be conducted among patients with a life expectancy of three months or less. The stepped-wedge cluster design, where the clusters are the different study sites, involves sequential crossover of clusters from control to intervention until all clusters are exposed. In total, seven sites (4 hospitals, 2 general practices and 1 hospice from the Netherlands) will participate in this study. During the control period, patients will receive ‘care as usual’. During the intervention period, CDSS-OPTIMED will be activated. CDSS-OPTIMED is a validated software program that analyses the use of medication based on a specific set of clinical rules for patients with a limited life expectancy. The software program will provide the attending physicians with weekly personalized medication recommendations. The primary outcome of this study is patients’ quality of life two weeks after baseline assessment as measured by the EORTC QLQ-C15-PAL questionnaire, quality of life question.Discussion: This will be the first study investigating the effect of weekly personalized medication recommendations to attending physicians on the quality of life of patients with a limited life expectancy. We hypothesize that the CDSS-OPTIMED intervention could lead to improved quality of life in patients with a life expectancy of three months or less. Trial registration: This trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05351281, Registration Date: April 11, 2022).</p

Sensory Processing Sensitivity in the context of Environmental Sensitivity: A critical review and development of research agenda

Sensory Processing Sensitivity (SPS) is a common, heritable and evolutionarily conserved trait describing inter-individual differences in sensitivity to both negative and positive environments. Despite societal interest in SPS, scientific knowledge is lagging behind. Here we critically discuss how SPS relates to other theories, how to measure SPS, whether SPS is a continuous vs categorical trait, its relation to other temperament and personality traits, the underlying aetiology and neurobiological mechanisms, and relations to both typical and atypical development, including mental and sensory disorders. Drawing on the diverse expertise of the authors, we set an agenda for future research to stimulate the field. We conclude that SPS increases risk for stress-related problems in response to negative environments, but also provides greater benefit from positive and supportive experiences. The field requires more reliable and objective assessment of SPS, deeper understanding of its mechanisms to differentiate it from other traits. Future research needs to target prevention of adverse effects associated with SPS, and exploitation of its positive potential to improve well-being and mental health