Hiding Relations

The present vogue of ‘managing for development results’ is an expression of a historically dominant mode of thought in international aid – ‘substantialism’ – which sees the world primarily in terms of ‘entities’ such as ‘poverty’, ‘basic needs’, ‘rights’, ‘women’, or ‘results’. Another important mode of thought, ‘relationalism’ – in association more generally with ideas of process and complexity – appears to be absent in the thinking of aid institutions. Drawing on my own experiences of working with the UK Department for International Development (DFID), I illustrate how despite formally subscribing to the institution’s substantialist view of the world, some staff are ‘closet relationists’, behaving according to one mode of thought while officially framing their action in terms of the other, more orthodox mode. In so doing, they may be unwittingly keeping international aid sufficiently viable - by the apparent proof of the efficacy of results-based management - to enable the institution as a whole to maintain its substantialist imaginary

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is to assess the global mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emissions scenarios from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth system models. In this work, we describe the "climate-assessment"workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing (ERF) characteristics of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2 and MAGICCv7.5.3 and use the CICERO simple climate model (CICERO-SCM) for sensitivity analysis. We discuss the implied overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years and look at emissions and temperature characteristics of scenarios compatible with one possible interpretation of the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emissions scenarios that limit global warming to "1.5 ° C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot"includes 97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, "limited overshoot"typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 ° C for up to a few decades before returning to below 1.5 ° C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with three criteria for being "Paris-compatible", including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by about 0.3-0.4 ° C after peaking at 1.5-1.6 ° C in 2035-2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a "climate-assessment"Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is to assess the global mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emissions scenarios from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth system models. In this work, we describe the “climate-assessment” workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing (ERF) characteristics of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2 and MAGICCv7.5.3 and use the CICERO simple climate model (CICERO-SCM) for sensitivity analysis. We discuss the implied overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years and look at emissions and temperature characteristics of scenarios compatible with one possible interpretation of the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emissions scenarios that limit global warming to “1.5 ∘C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot” includes 97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, “limited overshoot” typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 ∘C for up to a few decades before returning to below 1.5 ∘C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with three criteria for being “Paris-compatible”, including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by about 0.3–0.4 ∘C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 ∘C in 2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a “climate-assessment” Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts

The IPCC Sixth Assessment Report WGIII climate assessment of mitigation pathways: from emissions to global temperatures

While the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) physical science reports usually assess a handful of future scenarios, the Working Group III contribution on climate mitigation to the IPCC's Sixth Assessment Report (AR6 WGIII) assesses hundreds to thousands of future emissions scenarios. A key task in WGIII is to assess the global mean temperature outcomes of these scenarios in a consistent manner, given the challenge that the emissions scenarios from different integrated assessment models (IAMs) come with different sectoral and gas-to-gas coverage and cannot all be assessed consistently by complex Earth system models. In this work, we describe the “climate-assessment” workflow and its methods, including infilling of missing emissions and emissions harmonisation as applied to 1202 mitigation scenarios in AR6 WGIII. We evaluate the global mean temperature projections and effective radiative forcing (ERF) characteristics of climate emulators FaIRv1.6.2 and MAGICCv7.5.3 and use the CICERO simple climate model (CICERO-SCM) for sensitivity analysis. We discuss the implied overshoot severity of the mitigation pathways using overshoot degree years and look at emissions and temperature characteristics of scenarios compatible with one possible interpretation of the Paris Agreement. We find that the lowest class of emissions scenarios that limit global warming to “1.5 ∘C (with a probability of greater than 50 %) with no or limited overshoot” includes 97 scenarios for MAGICCv7.5.3 and 203 for FaIRv1.6.2. For the MAGICCv7.5.3 results, “limited overshoot” typically implies exceedance of median temperature projections of up to about 0.1 ∘C for up to a few decades before returning to below 1.5 ∘C by or before the year 2100. For more than half of the scenarios in this category that comply with three criteria for being “Paris-compatible”, including net-zero or net-negative greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, median temperatures decline by about 0.3–0.4 ∘C after peaking at 1.5–1.6 ∘C in 2035–2055. We compare the methods applied in AR6 with the methods used for SR1.5 and discuss their implications. This article also introduces a “climate-assessment” Python package which allows for fully reproducing the IPCC AR6 WGIII temperature assessment. This work provides a community tool for assessing the temperature outcomes of emissions pathways and provides a basis for further work such as extending the workflow to include downscaling of climate characteristics to a regional level and calculating impacts

Thiazide diuretic agents and the incidence of hip fracture.

Thiazide diuretic agents lower the urinary excretion of calcium. Their use has been associated with increased bone density, but their role in preventing hip fracture has not been established. We prospectively studied the effect of thiazide diuretic agents on the incidence of hip fracture among 9518 men and women 65 years of age or older residing in three communities. At base line, 24 to 30 percent of the subjects were thiazide users. In the subsequent four years, 242 subjects had hip fractures. The incidence rates of hip fracture were lower among thiazide users than nonusers in each community; the Mantel-Haenszel relative risk of hip fracture, adjusted for community and age, was 0.63 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.86). The protective effect of the use of thiazides was independent of sex, age, impaired mobility, body-mass index, and current and former smoking status; the multivariate adjusted relative risk of hip fracture was 0.68 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.49 to 0.94). Furthermore, the protective effect was specific to thiazide diuretic agents, since there was no association between the use of antihypertensive medications other than thiazides and the risk of hip fracture. These prospective data suggest that in older men and women the use of thiazide diuretic agents is associated with a reduction of approximately one third in the risk of hip fracture

Thiazide diuretic agents and the incidence of hip fracture.

Thiazide diuretic agents lower the urinary excretion of calcium. Their use has been associated with increased bone density, but their role in preventing hip fracture has not been established. We prospectively studied the effect of thiazide diuretic agents on the incidence of hip fracture among 9518 men and women 65 years of age or older residing in three communities. At base line, 24 to 30 percent of the subjects were thiazide users. In the subsequent four years, 242 subjects had hip fractures. The incidence rates of hip fracture were lower among thiazide users than nonusers in each community; the Mantel-Haenszel relative risk of hip fracture, adjusted for community and age, was 0.63 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.86). The protective effect of the use of thiazides was independent of sex, age, impaired mobility, body-mass index, and current and former smoking status; the multivariate adjusted relative risk of hip fracture was 0.68 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.49 to 0.94). Furthermore, the protective effect was specific to thiazide diuretic agents, since there was no association between the use of antihypertensive medications other than thiazides and the risk of hip fracture. These prospective data suggest that in older men and women the use of thiazide diuretic agents is associated with a reduction of approximately one third in the risk of hip fracture

Infiller database for silicone: IPCC AR6 WGIII version

To fill in emissions not reported for scenarios in their submission to the database, we use a large set of harmonized AR6 global emissions pathways for inferring pathways based on the relationships between concurrent species development over time observed in the larger set. Infilling ensures that all relevant anthropogenic emissions are included in each climate run for each scenario. This makes the climate assessment of alternative scenarios more comparable and reduces the risk of a biased climate assessment, because not all climatically active emission species are reported by all IAMs. The infilling methods used are from an open-source Python software package called ‘silicone’ (Lamboll et al. 2020) This file is the harmonized emissions database that was used as "infiller database" for the IPCC AR6 WGIII report on the Mitigation of Climate Change, using data from the chapter on Mitigation Pathways Compatible with Long-Term Goals (Riahi and Schaeffer et al. 2022) as available in the AR6 Scenarios Database (Byers et al. 2022)