Urban Cholera transmission hotspots and their implications for Reactive Vaccination: evidence from Bissau city, Guinea Bissau

Use of cholera vaccines in response to epidemics (reactive vaccination) may provide an effective supplement to traditional control measures. In Haiti, reactive vaccination was considered but, until recently, rejected in part due to limited global supply of vaccine. Using Bissau City, Guinea-Bissau as a case study, we explore neighborhood-level transmission dynamics to understand if, with limited vaccine and likely delays, reactive vaccination can significantly change the course of a cholera epidemic

Measuring the Performance of Vaccination Programs Using Cross-Sectional Surveys: A Likelihood Framework and Retrospective Analysis

Justin Lessler and colleagues describe a method that estimates the fraction of a population accessible to vaccination activities, and they apply it to measles vaccination in three African countries: Ghana, Madagascar, and Sierra Leone

High Hepatitis E Seroprevalence Among Displaced Persons in South Sudan.

AbstractLarge protracted outbreaks of hepatitis E virus (HEV) have been documented in displaced populations in Africa over the past decade though data are limited outside these exceptional settings. Serological studies can provide insights useful for improving surveillance and disease control. We conducted an age-stratified serological survey using samples previously collected for another research study from 206 residents of an internally displaced person camp in Juba, South Sudan. We tested serum for anti-HEV antibodies (IgM and IgG) and estimated the prevalence of recent and historical exposure to the virus. Using data on individuals' serostatus, camp arrival date, and state of origin, we used catalytic transmission models to estimate the relative risk of HEV infection in the camp compared with that in the participants' home states. The age-adjusted seroprevalence of anti-HEV IgG was 71% (95% confidence interval = 63-78), and 4% had evidence of recent exposure (IgM). We estimated HEV exposure rates to be more than 2-fold (hazard ratio = 2.3, 95% credible interval = 0.3-5.8) higher in the camp than in the participants' home states, although this difference was not statistically significant. HEV transmission may be higher than previously appreciated, even in the absence of reported cases. Improved surveillance in similar settings is needed to understand the burden of disease and minimize epidemic impact through early detection and response

Benefits and challenges in using sero-prevalence data to inform models for measles and rubella elimination.

Control efforts for measles and rubella are intensifying globally. It becomes increasingly important to identify and reach remaining susceptible populations as elimination is approached. Serological surveys for measles and rubella can potentially measure susceptibility directly, but their use remains rare. Here, using simulations, we outline key subtleties in interpretation associated with the dynamic context of age-specific immunity, highlighting how the patterns of immunity predicted from disease surveillance and vaccination coverage data may be misleading. High quality representative sero-surveys could provide a more accurate assessment of immunity if challenges of conducting, analyzing, and interpreting them are overcome. We frame the core disease control and elimination questions that could be addressed by improved serological tools, discussing challenges and suggesting approaches to increase the feasibility and sustainability of the tool. Accounting for the dynamical context, sero-surveys could play a key role in efforts to achieve and sustain elimination

The use of GPS data loggers to describe the impact of spatio-temporal movement patterns on malaria control in a high-transmission area of northern Zambia

Background: Human movement is a driver of malaria transmission and has implications for sustainable malaria control. However, little research has been done on the impact of fine-scale movement on malaria transmission and control in high-transmission settings. As interest in targeted malaria control increases, evaluations are needed to determine the appropriateness of these strategies in the context of human mobility across a variety of transmission settings. Methods: A human mobility study was conducted in Nchelenge District, a high-transmission setting in northern Zambia. Over 1 year, 84 participants were recruited from active malaria surveillance cohorts to wear a global positioning system data logger for 1 month during all daily activity. Participants completed a survey questionnaire and underwent malaria testing and treatment at the time of logger distribution and at collection 1 month later. Incident malaria infections were identified using polymerase chain reaction. Participant movement was characterized throughout the study area and across areas targeted for an indoor residual spraying (IRS) intervention. Participant movement patterns were compared using movement intensity maps, activity space plots, and statistical analyses. Malaria risk was characterized across participants using spatial risk maps and time spent away from home during peak vector biting hours. Results: Movement data were collected from 82 participants, and 63 completed a second study visit. Participants exhibited diverse mobility patterns across the study area, including movement into and out of areas targeted for IRS, potentially mitigating the impact of IRS on parasite prevalence. Movement patterns did not differ significantly by season or age, but male participants traveled longer distances and spent more time away from home. Monthly malaria incidence was 22%, and malaria risk was characterized as high across participants. Participants with incident parasitemia traveled a shorter distance and spent more time away from home during peak biting hours; however, these relationships were not statistically significant, and malaria risk score did not differ by incident parasitemia. Conclusions: Individual movement patterns in Nchelenge District, Zambia have implications for malaria control, particularly the effectiveness of targeted IRS strategies. Large and fine-scale population mobility patterns should be considered when planning intervention strategies across transmission settings

Risk factors for household vector abundance using indoor CDC light traps in a high malaria transmission area of Northern Zambia

Malaria transmission is dependent on the density and distribution of mosquito vectors, but drivers of vector abundance have not been adequately studied across a range of transmission settings. To inform intervention strategies for high-burden areas, further investigation is needed to identify predictors of vector abundance. Active household (HH) surveillance was conducted in Nchelenge district, Luapula Province, northern Zambia, a high-transmission setting with limited impact ofmalaria control. Between April 2012 and July 2017,mosquitoeswere collected indoors during HH visits using CDC light traps. Demographic, environmental, and climatological correlates of vector abundance were identified using log-binomial regressionmodels with robust standard errors. The primarymalaria vectors in this setting were Anopheles funestus sensu stricto (s.s.) andAnopheles gambiae s.s. Anopheles funestus predominated inboth seasons, with a peak in the dry season. Anopheles gambiae peaked at lower numbers in the rainy season. Environmental, climatic, and demographic factors were correlated with HH vector abundance. Higher vector counts were found in rural areas with low population density and among HHs close to roads and small streams. Vector counts were lower with increasing elevation and slope. Anopheles funestus was negatively associated with rainfall at lags of 2-6weeks, and An. gambiae was positively associated with rainfall at lags of 3-10 weeks. Both vectors had varying relationships with temperature. These results suggest thatmalaria vector control in Nchelenge district should occur throughout the year, with an increased focus on dry-season transmission and rural areas

Improving the normalization of complex interventions: measure development based on normalization process theory (NoMAD): study protocol

<b>Background</b> Understanding implementation processes is key to ensuring that complex interventions in healthcare are taken up in practice and thus maximize intended benefits for service provision and (ultimately) care to patients. Normalization Process Theory (NPT) provides a framework for understanding how a new intervention becomes part of normal practice. This study aims to develop and validate simple generic tools derived from NPT, to be used to improve the implementation of complex healthcare interventions.<p></p> <b>Objectives</b> The objectives of this study are to: develop a set of NPT-based measures and formatively evaluate their use for identifying implementation problems and monitoring progress; conduct preliminary evaluation of these measures across a range of interventions and contexts, and identify factors that affect this process; explore the utility of these measures for predicting outcomes; and develop an online users’ manual for the measures.<p></p> <b>Methods</b> A combination of qualitative (workshops, item development, user feedback, cognitive interviews) and quantitative (survey) methods will be used to develop NPT measures, and test the utility of the measures in six healthcare intervention settings.<p></p> <b>Discussion</b> The measures developed in the study will be available for use by those involved in planning, implementing, and evaluating complex interventions in healthcare and have the potential to enhance the chances of their implementation, leading to sustained changes in working practices

Accounting for assay performance when estimating the temporal dynamics in SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence in the U.S.

Reconstructing the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection is central to understanding the state of the pandemic. Seroprevalence studies are often used to assess cumulative infections as they can identify asymptomatic infection. Since July 2020, commercial laboratories have conducted nationwide serosurveys for the U.S. CDC. They employed three assays, with different sensitivities and specificities, potentially introducing biases in seroprevalence estimates. Using models, we show that accounting for assays explains some of the observed state-to-state variation in seroprevalence, and when integrating case and death surveillance data, we show that when using the Abbott assay, estimates of proportions infected can differ substantially from seroprevalence estimates. We also found that states with higher proportions infected (before or after vaccination) had lower vaccination coverages, a pattern corroborated using a separate dataset. Finally, to understand vaccination rates relative to the increase in cases, we estimated the proportions of the population that received a vaccine prior to infection

Assessing Vaccination Sentiments with Online Social Media: Implications for Infectious Disease Dynamics and Control

There is great interest in the dynamics of health behaviors in social networks and how they affect collective public health outcomes, but measuring population health behaviors over time and space requires substantial resources. Here, we use publicly available data from 101,853 users of online social media collected over a time period of almost six months to measure the spatio-temporal sentiment towards a new vaccine. We validated our approach by identifying a strong correlation between sentiments expressed online and CDC- estimated vaccination rates by region. Analysis of the network of opinionated users showed that information flows more often between users who share the same sentiments - and less often between users who do not share the same sentiments - than expected by chance alone. We also found that most communities are dominated by either positive or negative sentiments towards the novel vaccine. Simulations of infectious disease transmission show that if clusters of negative vaccine sentiments lead to clusters of unprotected individuals, the likelihood of disease outbreaks are greatly increased. Online social media provide unprecedented access to data allowing for inexpensive and efficient tools to identify target areas for intervention efforts and to evaluate their effectiveness.Comment: Accepted for publication in PLoS Computational Biolog