Improving Witnesses\u27 Predictive Confidence Judgments by Enhancing Test Domain Familiarity

Recent research on witnesses’ pre-identification confidence (“predictive confidence”) suggests that these judgments are moderately related to identification accuracy when witnesses experience encoding variability and appropriate statistical techniques are used. However, other research shows that under ecologically valid conditions involving a single identification, the relationship between predictive confidence and accuracy deteriorates. One potential explanation for this lack of a meaningful confidence-accuracy relationship is that witnesses are unfamiliar with the lineup task leading them to underestimate its difficulty. Identification difficulty is partly determined by the similarity of lineup fillers to the suspect, which witnesses cannot anticipate when they make a predictive confidence judgment; in light of this, the current study tested whether witnesses’ predictive confidence could be improved by exposing participants to “sample fillers” that matched (or did not match) the similarity of fillers in the actual lineup. The current study also explored whether witnesses’ self-reported memory strength predicted their identification accuracy. Finally, to overcome limitations of using continuous measures (such as memory strength or predictive confidence) to make a dichotomous decision as to whether to show a witness a lineup, the present experiment evaluated whether witnesses’ dichotomous judgments about their ability to make an accurate identification decision could predict their subsequent identification accuracy. Witnesses viewed a mock crime under one of eight encoding conditions, and one week later were shown “good”, “poor”, or no sample fillers prior to reporting their predictive confidence, memory strength, and dichotomous lineup prediction, and attempting to make a lineup identification. Results indicated that viewing good sample fillers did not significantly improve the predictive confidence-accuracy relationship, and that although exposure to either type of sample filler decreased witnesses’ predictive confidence, they were largely overconfident relative to their level of accuracy (thereby harming calibration). Witnesses’ self-reported memory strength and dichotomous prediction also failed to successfully differentiate accurate and inaccurate eyewitnesses. Results suggest that real-world decisions as to whether to present witnesses with a lineup based on their predictive confidence are misguided. Implications of retention interval on the use of predictive measures are discussed

Oncometabolites:linking altered metabolism with cancer

The discovery of cancer-associated mutations in genes encoding key metabolic enzymes has provided a direct link between altered metabolism and cancer. Advances in mass spectrometry and nuclear magnetic resonance technologies have facilitated high-resolution metabolite profiling of cells and tumors and identified the accumulation of metabolites associated with specific gene defects. Here we review the potential roles of such "oncometabolites" in tumor evolution and as clinical biomarkers for the detection of cancers characterized by metabolic dysregulation

Contingent infrastructure and the dilution of ‘Chineseness’: Reframing roads and rail in Kampala and Addis Ababa

Amid growing interest in China’s role in financing and building infrastructure in Africa, there is still little research on how Chinese-financed infrastructures are negotiated and realised at the city and metropolitan scale. We compare the Light Rail Transit in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia with the expressway linking Kampala to Entebbe airport in Uganda, examining the processes of bargaining behind these transport infrastructures and their emergent effects on urban land use and city-dwellers’ mobility. We find that both projects were designed and implemented through opaque negotiations between African national elites and Chinese agencies, with little or no engagement from city authorities, leading to haphazard outcomes that are poorly integrated with broader planning. Yet we also suggest that despite being enabled and mediated by Chinese agencies, such projects do not embody a Chinese global vision. They instead reflect the entrepreneurial activities of Chinese contractors and the varying ways in which these connect with African national governments’ shifting priorities. Moreover, as they are subsumed into the urban context, these transposed infrastructures have been rapidly repurposed and their ‘Chineseness’ diluted, with one morphing into an infrastructure for the poor and the other into a site of private value extraction. We thus argue that, far from representing a domineering or neo-colonial influence, Chinese-financed infrastructures that land in institutionally complex African city-regions can be rapidly swallowed up into the political-economic landscape, producing contingent benefits and disbenefits that are far removed from the visions of any planners – Chinese or African, past or present

China\u27s hegemonic intentions and trajectory: Will it opt for benevolent, coercive, or Dutch‐style hegemony?

China\u27s unprecedented economic growth led some scholars to conclude that it will replace the United States as the future global hegemon. However, China\u27s intentions in exercising future global leadership are yet unknown and difficult to extrapolate from its often contradictory behaviour. A preliminary overview of China\u27s island building in the South China Sea reveals its potentially coercive intentions. This inference is consistent with the analysis of those who prognosticate China\u27s violent rise. Conversely and simultaneously, China\u27s participation in peacekeeping operations and its global investments evince its benevolent hegemonic intentions, which are congruent with the argument of those who predict China\u27s peaceful hegemonic ascent. Confronted with these divergent tendencies in China\u27s recent international relations, and assuming its continued rise, it is, thus, essential to examine China\u27s strategic intentions and how these may ultimately project its violent or peaceful hegemonic rise. This article argues that the “Third Way” or “Dutch‐style” hegemony is highly instructive in this context and, thus, should be examined and added to the existing debate on China\u27s rise as either a benevolent or coercive hegemon. We argue that Dutch‐style hegemony may be the most viable way for China to proceed in its global hegemonic ascendancy

New Measures of the Trilemma Hypothesis: Implications for Asia

We develop a new set of indexes of exchange rate stability, monetary policy independence, and financial market openness as the metrics for the trilemma hypothesis. In our exploration, we take a different and more nuanced approach than the previous indexes developed by Aizenman, Chinn, and Ito (2008). We show that the new indexes add up to the value two, supporting the trilemma hypothesis. We locate our sample economies' policy mixes in the famous trilemma triangle - a useful and intuitive way to illustrate the state and evolution of policy mixes. We also examine if the persistent deviation of the sum of the three indexes from the value two indicates an unsustainable policy mix and therefore needs to be corrected by economic disruptions such as economic and financial crises. We obtain several findings. First, such a persistent deviation can occur particularly in emerging economies that later experience an inflation (or potentially a general or a currency) crisis, and dissipates in the postcrisis period. Second, there is no evidence for this type of association between deviations from the trilemma constraint and general, banking, or debt crises. Third, Thailand experienced such a deviation from the trilemma constraint in the period leading to the baht crisis of 1997, but not other East and Southeast Asian economies. This last result suggests that the main cause for the Thai baht crisis was an unsustainable policy mix in the precrisis period, while other affected economies experienced crises mainly due to contagion from Thailand

Application of combined omics platforms to accelerate biomedical discovery in diabesity

Diabesity has become a popular term to describe the specific form of diabetes that develops late in life and is associated with obesity. While there is a correlation between diabetes and obesity, the association is not universally predictive. Defining the metabolic characteristics of obesity that lead to diabetes, and how obese individuals who develop diabetes different from those who do not, are important goals. The use of large-scale omics analyses (e.g., metabolomic, proteomic, transcriptomic, and lipidomic) of diabetes and obesity may help to identify new targets to treat these conditions. This report discusses how various types of omics data can be integrated to shed light on the changes in metabolism that occur in obesity and diabetes

TRH: Pathophysiologic and clinical implications

Thyrotropin releasing hormone is thought to be a tonic stimulator of the pituitary TSH secretion regulating the setpoint of the thyrotrophs to the suppressive effect of thyroid hormones. The peptide stimulates the release of normal and elevated prolactin. ACTH and GH may increase in response to exogenous TRH in pituitary ACTH and GH hypersecretion syndromes and in some extrapituitary diseases. The pathophysiological implications of extrahypothalamic TRH in humans are essentially unknown. The TSH response to TRH is nowadays widely used as a diganostic amplifier in thyroid diseases being suppressed in borderline and overt hyperthyroid states and increased in primary thyroid failure. In hypothyroid states of hypothalamic origin, TSH increases in response to exogenous TRH often with a delayed and/or exaggerated time course. But in patients with pituitary tumors and suprasellar extension TSH may also respond to TRH despite secondary hypothyroidism. This TSH increase may indicate a suprasellar cause for the secondary hypothyroidism, probably due to portal vessel occlusion. The TSH released in these cases is shown to be biologically inactive

Contextualizing the China dream: a reinforced consultative Leninist approach to government

After he took over as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and as Chairman of the Central Military Commission in November 2012, Xi Jinping articulated for the first time ‘the China dream’ at ‘the road to revival’ exhibition at the National Museum in Beijing. As he did so he stressed that since the start of the reform period China had finally found the way to restore the greatness of the country and it was called ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’.1 What Xi has revealed is not a new political system or even a new term to describe it. It is a confidence in the existing political system which, despite all its faults, he now believes is sufficiently strong, effective and robust to deliver the national revival encapsulated in his ‘China dream’. The nature of the system that Xi loosely refers to, in line with the long-standing usage after the end of the Mao Zedong era, as ‘socialism with Chinese characteristics’ gets clearer if it is set within the analytical framework of consultative Leninism

Going global or going nowhere? Chinese media in a time of flux

This article focuses on how Chinese media industries have sought to expand into new territories, identifying several mechanisms by which Chinese cultural and media products are traded and consumed: namely finished content, co-productions, formats and online platforms. The article also considers the value of overseas location shooting for domestic programmes and acquisition of international media assets. The key idea that is discussed in regards to China's outward-bound trade mission is know-how. In respect to media production, producers tend to opt for risk avoidance rather than creative exploration. Consequently, Chinese producers, investors and practitioners are deficient in knowledge of international markets and audience perceptions because the government has chosen to intervene, select and guide Chinese products. The article suggests this is gradually changing