An Experiment on Consumption Responses to Future Prices and Interest Rates

We design an experiment to investigate the influence of announced future variations in interest rates and prices on consumption decisions. In an experimental implementation of the discounted utility model, the subjects learn the entire paths of inflation and interest rates prior to deciding on a consumption path. We decompose the total change in consumption that results from changes in either interest rates or inflation rates into anticipation and impact effects. While impact effects are of similar orders of magnitude as in the model, future changes in inflation or interest rates exert substantially smaller effects on current consumption than predicted by the model.Wir entwerfen ein Experiment, um den Einfluss zukünftiger Veränderungen von Preisen und Zinssätzen auf Konsumentscheidungen zu untersuchen. Das Discounted Utility Model wird so exakt wie möglich im Labor nachgestellt: Die Teilnehmer erfahren die vollständigen Verlaufspfade von Inflation und Zinsen, bevor sie ihre Konsumpfade festlegen. Die Konsumänderung, die sich aus der Änderung von Inflation und Zinssatz ergibt, spalten wir in einen Antizipations- und einen Impact-Effekt auf. Während die beobachteten Impact-Effekte der Größenordnung der Modellvorhersage entsprechen, haben erwartete zukünftige Veränderungen von Inflation oder Zinssatz wesentlich kleinere Auswirkungen auf den aktuellen Verbrauch als vom Modell vorhergesagt

The small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve: empirical evidence and implied inflation dynamics

In this paper we apply GMM estimation to assess the relevance of domestic versus external determinants of CPI inflation dynamics in a sample of OECD countries typically classified as open economies. The analysis is based on a variant of the small open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve derived in Galí and Monacelli (Rev Econ Stud 72:707–734, 2005), where the novel feature is that expectations about fluctuations in the terms of trade enter explicitly. For most countries in our sample the expected relative change in the terms of trade emerges as the more relevant inflation driver than the contemporaneous domestic output gap

Money Market Uncertainty and Retail Interest Rate Fluctuations: A Cross-Country Comparison

This paper analyzes empirically the relationship between money market uncertainty and unexpected deviations in retail interest rates in a sample of 10 OECD countries. We find that, with the exception of the US, money market uncertainty has only a modest impact on the conditional volatility of retail interest rates. Even for the US we find that the effects of money market uncertainty are spread out over time. Our results are consistent with the hypothesis that banking relationships include implicit insurance arrangements and thereby reduce uncertainty

Monetary Policy, Inflation Illusion and the Taylor Principle – An Experimental Study

We develop a simple experimental setting to evaluate the role of the Taylor principle, which holds that the nominal interest rate has to respond more than one-for-one to fluctuations in the inflation rate. In our setting, the average infl ation rate fluctuates around the inflation target if the computerized central bank obeys the Taylor principle. If the Taylor principle is violated, then the average infl ation rate persistently deviates from the target. We find that these deviations from the target are less pronounced, if inflation rates cannot be as readily observed as nominal interest rates. This result is consistent with the interpretation that subjects underestimate the influence of inflation on the real return to savings if the infl ation rate is only observed ex post.Wir entwickeln ein simples Experiment um die geldpolitische Rolle des Taylor Prinzips zu untersuchen. Das Taylor Prinzip besagt, dass der Nominalzins überproportional auf Schwankungen der Inflationsrate reagieren muss. In unserem Design oszilliert die durchschnittliche Inflationsrate um den Zielwert, falls die (automatisierte) Zentralbank dem Taylor-Prinzip folgt. Wird dieses verletzt, dann führt dies zu permanenten Abweichungen vom Inflationsziel. Nach unseren Ergebnissen sind diese Abweichungen weniger stark ausgeprägt, wenn die Inflationsrate weniger offensichtlich ist als die Nominalzinsen. Die Probanden unterschätzen teilweise den Einfluss der Inflationsrate auf die Realzinsen, wenn die Inflationsrate nur ex post beobachtet werden kann

Human health and ocean pollution

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Background: Pollution – unwanted waste released to air, water, and land by human activity – is the largest environmental cause of disease in the world today. It is responsible for an estimated nine million premature deaths per year, enormous economic losses, erosion of human capital, and degradation of ecosystems. Ocean pollution is an important, but insufficiently recognized and inadequately controlled component of global pollution. It poses serious threats to human health and well-being. The nature and magnitude of these impacts are only beginning to be understood. Goals: (1) Broadly examine the known and potential impacts of ocean pollution on human health. (2) Inform policy makers, government leaders, international organizations, civil society, and the global public of these threats. (3) Propose priorities for interventions to control and prevent pollution of the seas and safeguard human health. Methods: Topic-focused reviews that examine the effects of ocean pollution on human health, identify gaps in knowledge, project future trends, and offer evidence-based guidance for effective intervention. Environmental Findings: Pollution of the oceans is widespread, worsening, and in most countries poorly controlled. It is a complex mixture of toxic metals, plastics, manufactured chemicals, petroleum, urban and industrial wastes, pesticides, fertilizers, pharmaceutical chemicals, agricultural runoff, and sewage. More than 80% arises from land-based sources. It reaches the oceans through rivers, runoff, atmospheric deposition and direct discharges. It is often heaviest near the coasts and most highly concentrated along the coasts of low- and middle-income countries. Plastic is a rapidly increasing and highly visible component of ocean pollution, and an estimated 10 million metric tons of plastic waste enter the seas each year. Mercury is the metal pollutant of greatest concern in the oceans; it is released from two main sources – coal combustion and small-scale gold mining. Global spread of industrialized agriculture with increasing use of chemical fertilizer leads to extension of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) to previously unaffected regions. Chemical pollutants are ubiquitous and contaminate seas and marine organisms from the high Arctic to the abyssal depths. Ecosystem Findings: Ocean pollution has multiple negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and these impacts are exacerbated by global climate change. Petroleum-based pollutants reduce photosynthesis in marine microorganisms that generate oxygen. Increasing absorption of carbon dioxide into the seas causes ocean acidification, which destroys coral reefs, impairs shellfish development, dissolves calcium-containing microorganisms at the base of the marine food web, and increases the toxicity of some pollutants. Plastic pollution threatens marine mammals, fish, and seabirds and accumulates in large mid-ocean gyres. It breaks down into microplastic and nanoplastic particles containing multiple manufactured chemicals that can enter the tissues of marine organisms, including species consumed by humans. Industrial releases, runoff, and sewage increase frequency and severity of HABs, bacterial pollution, and anti-microbial resistance. Pollution and sea surface warming are triggering poleward migration of dangerous pathogens such as the Vibrio species. Industrial discharges, pharmaceutical wastes, pesticides, and sewage contribute to global declines in fish stocks. Human Health Findings: Methylmercury and PCBs are the ocean pollutants whose human health effects are best understood. Exposures of infants in utero to these pollutants through maternal consumption of contaminated seafood can damage developing brains, reduce IQ and increase children’s risks for autism, ADHD and learning disorders. Adult exposures to methylmercury increase risks for cardiovascular disease and dementia. Manufactured chemicals – phthalates, bisphenol A, flame retardants, and perfluorinated chemicals, many of them released into the seas from plastic waste – can disrupt endocrine signaling, reduce male fertility, damage the nervous system, and increase risk of cancer. HABs produce potent toxins that accumulate in fish and shellfish. When ingested, these toxins can cause severe neurological impairment and rapid death. HAB toxins can also become airborne and cause respiratory disease. Pathogenic marine bacteria cause gastrointestinal diseases and deep wound infections. With climate change and increasing pollution, risk is high that Vibrio infections, including cholera, will increase in frequency and extend to new areas. All of the health impacts of ocean pollution fall disproportionately on vulnerable populations in the Global South – environmental injustice on a planetary scale. Conclusions: Ocean pollution is a global problem. It arises from multiple sources and crosses national boundaries. It is the consequence of reckless, shortsighted, and unsustainable exploitation of the earth’s resources. It endangers marine ecosystems. It impedes the production of atmospheric oxygen. Its threats to human health are great and growing, but still incompletely understood. Its economic costs are only beginning to be counted. Ocean pollution can be prevented. Like all forms of pollution, ocean pollution can be controlled by deploying data-driven strategies based on law, policy, technology, and enforcement that target priority pollution sources. Many countries have used these tools to control air and water pollution and are now applying them to ocean pollution. Successes achieved to date demonstrate that broader control is feasible. Heavily polluted harbors have been cleaned, estuaries rejuvenated, and coral reefs restored. Prevention of ocean pollution creates many benefits. It boosts economies, increases tourism, helps restore fisheries, and improves human health and well-being. It advances the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). These benefits will last for centuries. Recommendations: World leaders who recognize the gravity of ocean pollution, acknowledge its growing dangers, engage civil society and the global public, and take bold, evidence-based action to stop pollution at source will be critical to preventing ocean pollution and safeguarding human health. Prevention of pollution from land-based sources is key. Eliminating coal combustion and banning all uses of mercury will reduce mercury pollution. Bans on single-use plastic and better management of plastic waste reduce plastic pollution. Bans on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have reduced pollution by PCBs and DDT. Control of industrial discharges, treatment of sewage, and reduced applications of fertilizers have mitigated coastal pollution and are reducing frequency of HABs. National, regional and international marine pollution control programs that are adequately funded and backed by strong enforcement have been shown to be effective. Robust monitoring is essential to track progress. Further interventions that hold great promise include wide-scale transition to renewable fuels; transition to a circular economy that creates little waste and focuses on equity rather than on endless growth; embracing the principles of green chemistry; and building scientific capacity in all countries. Designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) will safeguard critical ecosystems, protect vulnerable fish stocks, and enhance human health and well-being. Creation of MPAs is an important manifestation of national and international commitment to protecting the health of the seas.The Centre Scientifique de Monaco, the Prince Albert II of Monaco Foundation and the Government of the Principality of Monaco John J. Stegeman is supported by U.S. Oceans and Human Health Program (NIH grant P01ES028938 and National Science Foundation grant OCE-1840381). Lora E. Fleming is supported by the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement No 774567 (H2020 SOPHIE Project) and No 666773 (H2020 BlueHealth Project). Plastic toxicity research for Dimitri Deheyn is supported by the BEST Initiative (https://deheynlab.ucsd.edu/best-2/). Barbara Demeneix is supported by grants from the program H2020. Charles J. Dorman is supported by Science Foundation Ireland Investigator Award 13/IA/1875. William H. Gaze is supported by a Natural Environment Research Council Knowledge Exchange Fellowship NE/S006257/1 on the environmental dimension of antimicrobial resistance. Philippe Grandjean is supported by National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences (NIEHS) of the NIH (grant No. ES027706), a Superfund center grant for the Sources, Transport, Exposure and Effects of Perfluoroalkyl Substances (STEEP) Center. Mark E. Hahn is supported by U.S. Oceans and Human Health Program (NIH grant P01ES028938 and National Science Foundation grant OCE-1840381). Amro Hamdoun is supported by NIH and NSF Program on Oceans and Human Health Grants NIH ES030318 and NSF 1840844. Philipp Hess is supported by the IAEA Core Research Project K41014, by the European H2020 program for funding the EMERTOX project (grant number 778069), by the Atlantic Interreg (grant number Alertox-Net EAPA-317-2016) and by EFSA for the project EUROCIGUA (framework partnership agreement GP/EFSA/AFSCO/2015/03). Rachel T. Noble was supported by the US National Science Foundation Accelerating Innovations in Research #1602023 and the NOAA NERRS Science Collaborative. Maria Luiza Pedrotti is supported by Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS). Luigi Vezzulli is supported by the following grants: European FP7 Program Grant AQUAVALENS 311846 and European Union’s Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Program Grant VIVALDI 678589. Pál Weihe is supported by the Danish EPA programme: Danish Cooperation for Environment in the Arctic and by the Faroese Research Council

Human health and ocean pollution

Background: Pollution – unwanted waste released to air, water, and land by human activity – is the largest environmental cause of disease in the world today. It is responsible for an estimated nine million premature deaths per year, enormous economic losses, erosion of human capital, and degradation of ecosystems. Ocean pollution is an important, but insufficiently recognized and inadequately controlled component of global pollution. It poses serious threats to human health and well-being. The nature and magnitude of these impacts are only beginning to be understood. Goals: (1) Broadly examine the known and potential impacts of ocean pollution on human health. (2) Inform policy makers, government leaders, international organizations, civil society, and the global public of these threats. (3) Propose priorities for interventions to control and prevent pollution of the seas and safeguard human health. Methods: Topic-focused reviews that examine the effects of ocean pollution on human health, identify gaps in knowledge, project future trends, and offer evidence-based guidance for effective intervention. Environmental Findings: Pollution of the oceans is widespread, worsening, and in most countries poorly controlled. It is a complex mixture of toxic metals, plastics, manufactured chemicals, petroleum, urban and industrial wastes, pesticides, fertilizers, pharmaceutical chemicals, agricultural runoff, and sewage. More than 80% arises from land-based sources. It reaches the oceans through rivers, runoff, atmospheric deposition and direct discharges. It is often heaviest near the coasts and most highly concentrated along the coasts of low- and middle-income countries. Plastic is a rapidly increasing and highly visible component of ocean pollution, and an estimated 10 million metric tons of plastic waste enter the seas each year. Mercury is the metal pollutant of greatest concern in the oceans; it is released from two main sources – coal combustion and small-scale gold mining. Global spread of industrialized agriculture with increasing use of chemical fertilizer leads to extension of Harmful Algal Blooms (HABs) to previously unaffected regions. Chemical pollutants are ubiquitous and contaminate seas and marine organisms from the high Arctic to the abyssal depths. Ecosystem Findings: Ocean pollution has multiple negative impacts on marine ecosystems, and these impacts are exacerbated by global climate change. Petroleum-based pollutants reduce photosynthesis in marine microorganisms that generate oxygen. Increasing absorption of carbon dioxide into the seas causes ocean acidification, which destroys coral reefs, impairs shellfish development, dissolves calcium-containing microorganisms at the base of the marine food web, and increases the toxicity of some pollutants. Plastic pollution threatens marine mammals, fish, and seabirds and accumulates in large mid-ocean gyres. It breaks down into microplastic and nanoplastic particles containing multiple manufactured chemicals that can enter the tissues of marine organisms, including species consumed by humans. Industrial releases, runoff, and sewage increase frequency and severity of HABs, bacterial pollution, and anti-microbial resistance. Pollution and sea surface warming are triggering poleward migration of dangerous pathogens such as the Vibrio species. Industrial discharges, pharmaceutical wastes, pesticides, and sewage contribute to global declines in fish stocks. Human Health Findings: Methylmercury and PCBs are the ocean pollutants whose human health effects are best understood. Exposures of infants in utero to these pollutants through maternal consumption of contaminated seafood can damage developing brains, reduce IQ and increase children’s risks for autism, ADHD and learning disorders. Adult exposures to methylmercury increase risks for cardiovascular disease and dementia. Manufactured chemicals – phthalates, bisphenol A, flame retardants, and perfluorinated chemicals, many of them released into the seas from plastic waste – can disrupt endocrine signaling, reduce male fertility, damage the nervous system, and increase risk of cancer. HABs produce potent toxins that accumulate in fish and shellfish. When ingested, these toxins can cause severe neurological impairment and rapid death. HAB toxins can also become airborne and cause respiratory disease. Pathogenic marine bacteria cause gastrointestinal diseases and deep wound infections. With climate change and increasing pollution, risk is high that Vibrio infections, including cholera, will increase in frequency and extend to new areas. All of the health impacts of ocean pollution fall disproportionately on vulnerable populations in the Global South – environmental injustice on a planetary scale. Conclusions: Ocean pollution is a global problem. It arises from multiple sources and crosses national boundaries. It is the consequence of reckless, shortsighted, and unsustainable exploitation of the earth’s resources. It endangers marine ecosystems. It impedes the production of atmospheric oxygen. Its threats to human health are great and growing, but still incompletely understood. Its economic costs are only beginning to be counted. Ocean pollution can be prevented. Like all forms of pollution, ocean pollution can be controlled by deploying data-driven strategies based on law, policy, technology, and enforcement that target priority pollution sources. Many countries have used these tools to control air and water pollution and are now applying them to ocean pollution. Successes achieved to date demonstrate that broader control is feasible. Heavily polluted harbors have been cleaned, estuaries rejuvenated, and coral reefs restored. Prevention of ocean pollution creates many benefits. It boosts economies, increases tourism, helps restore fisheries, and improves human health and well-being. It advances the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). These benefits will last for centuries. Recommendations: World leaders who recognize the gravity of ocean pollution, acknowledge its growing dangers, engage civil society and the global public, and take bold, evidence-based action to stop pollution at source will be critical to preventing ocean pollution and safeguarding human health. Prevention of pollution from land-based sources is key. Eliminating coal combustion and banning all uses of mercury will reduce mercury pollution. Bans on single-use plastic and better management of plastic waste reduce plastic pollution. Bans on persistent organic pollutants (POPs) have reduced pollution by PCBs and DDT. Control of industrial discharges, treatment of sewage, and reduced applications of fertilizers have mitigated coastal pollution and are reducing frequency of HABs. National, regional and international marine pollution control programs that are adequately funded and backed by strong enforcement have been shown to be effective. Robust monitoring is essential to track progress. Further interventions that hold great promise include wide-scale transition to renewable fuels; transition to a circular economy that creates little waste and focuses on equity rather than on endless growth; embracing the principles of green chemistry; and building scientific capacity in all countries. Designation of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) will safeguard critical ecosystems, protect vulnerable fish stocks, and enhance human health and well-being. Creation of MPAs is an important manifestation of national and international commitment to protecting the health of the seas

Technische Zusammenfassung

Die Technische Zusammenfassung des APCC-Sonderberichts ″Landnutzung und Klimawandel in Österreich″ umfasst die Kernbotschaften der Kapitel 1–9. In ihr sind die Hauptaussagen zu den sozioökonomischen und klimatischen Treibern der Landnutzungsänderungen, zu den Auswirkungen von Landnutzung und -bewirtschaftung auf den Klimawandel, zu Minderungs- und Anpassungsoptionen im Kontext nachhaltiger Entwicklungsziele sowie zu Synergien, Zielkonflikten und Umsetzungsbarrieren von Klimamaßnahmen enthalten

The synchronization of GDP growth in the G7 during US recessions

Using the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) model due to Engle (2002), we estimate time varying correlations of quarterly real GDP growth among the G7 countries. In general, we find that rather heterogeneous patterns of international synchronization exist during US recessions. During the 2007-2009 recession, however, international co-movement increased substantially. (authors' abstract

Stoichiometric multitrophic networks reveal significance of land-sea interaction to ecosystem function in a subtropical nutrient-poor bight, South Africa.

Nearshore marine ecosystems can benefit from their interaction with adjacent ecosystems, especially if they alleviate nutrient limitations in nutrient poor areas. This was the case in our oligo- to mesotrophic study area, the KwaZulu-Natal Bight on the South African subtropical east coast, which is bordered by the Agulhas current. We built stoichiometric, multitrophic ecosystem networks depicting biomass and material flows of carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus in three subsystems of the bight. The networks were analysed to investigate whether the southern, middle and northern bight function similarly in terms of their productivity, transfer efficiency between trophic levels, material cycling, and nutrient limitations. The middle region of the bight was clearly influenced by nutrient additions from the Thukela River, as it had the highest ecosystem productivity, lower transfer efficiencies and degree of cycling. Most nodes in the networks were limited by phosphorus, followed by nitrogen. The middle region adjacent to the Thukela River showed a lower proportion of P limitation especially in summer. Interestingly, there was a clear distinction in sensitivities to nutrient limitations between lower and higher trophic level organisms. This is a reflection of their discrepant nutrient turnover times that are either higher, or lower, than that of the systems, and which might provide a balance to the system through this antagonistic influence. Furthermore, by tracking the stoichiometry through entire food webs it appeared how important the role of lower trophic level organisms was to regulate stoichiometry to more suitable ratios for higher trophic level requirements. Although we gained good insight into the behaviour of the three subsystems in the KZN Bight and the role of terrestrial influence on their functioning, a merged approach of incorporating data on metabolic constraints derived from experiments could further improve the representativeness of multitrophic stoichiometric ecosystem networks

Measuring sensitivity of robustness and network indices for an estuarine food web model under perturbations

Robustness is a universal feature of ecological systems which promotes sustainability over time. Robustness of an aquatic ecosystem, specifically an estuarine system, is investigated here using indicators derived from ecological network analysis. Estuaries provide us with many ecosystem services and these are consequently prone to face anthropogenic stresses. In South Africa, temporarily open/closed estuaries occupy a significant percentage of coastal boundaries. One of the South African estuaries, namely Mdloti, is studied here using network-based, Ecopath software. The estuarine energy flow networks are perturbed following different scenarios, which are assumed to be a result of selected anthropogenic stresses (eutrophication, overfishing) to the system. Several network indices such as total system throughput (TST), redundancy (R), Finn's Cycling Index (FCI) and ascendency over development capacity ratio (A/C) are calculated and analyzed for the original field-based network and three perturbed networks under different scenarios (change of autotrophic biomass, fish yield, and detritus import). Ecosystem robustness is high in the original (unperturbed) network and after perturbations the change in robustness is not significant for change in the autotrophic biomass scenario but is significant for the other two scenarios. These indicators reliably reflected the relative change of flow pattern if any changes occur and magnitude in the networks in different scenarios. From the present study, we show that certain common network indices as mentioned above provide a measure of robustness and can be used for the assessment of ecosystem organization and function. ENA properties and also robustness change depending on the type and magnitude of stress imposed on the system