Hyperbolic Discounting with Environmental Outcomes across Time, Space, and Probability

Environmental discounting is a potentially important research area for climate change mitigation. We aimed to replicate and extend earlier work on the discounting of a negative environmental outcome. We measured ratings of concern, and willingness to act to mitigate, an outcome involving air pollution that would hypothetically affect the garden and drinking water of the participants over psychological distance represented by temporal (1 month, 6 months, and 1, 3, 5, 10, and 80 years), spatial (5, 20, 50, 100, 1000, and 5000 km), and probabilistic (95%, 90%, 50%, 30%, 10%, and 5% likelihood) dimensions. For our data from 224 first-year psychology students, of four potential models (an exponential, simple hyperbolic, and two hyperboloid functions), the Rachlin hyperboloid was the best-fitting model describing ratings of concern and action across all three dimensions. Willingness to act was discounted more steeply than concern across all dimensions. There was little difference in discounting for outcomes described as human-caused rather than natural, except that willingness to act was discounted more steeply than concern for human-caused environmental outcomes compared to natural outcomes across spatial (and, less conclusively, temporal) distance. Presenting values of the three dimensions in random or progressive order had little effect on the results. Our results reflect the often-reported attitudebehavior gap whereby people maintain concern about a negative event over dimensions of psychological distance, but their willingness to act to mitigate the event is lower and more steeply discounted

Uncertainty contributions to low-flow projections in Austria

The main objective of the paper is to understand the contributions to the uncertainty in low-flow projections resulting from hydrological model uncertainty and climate projection uncertainty. Model uncertainty is quantified by different parameterisations of a conceptual semi-distributed hydrologic model (TUWmodel) using 11 objective functions in three different decades (1976–1986, 1987–1997, 1998–2008), which allows for disentangling the effect of the objective function-related uncertainty and temporal stability of model parameters. Climate projection uncertainty is quantified by four future climate scenarios (ECHAM5-A1B, A2, B1 and HADCM3-A1B) using a delta change approach. The approach is tested for 262 basins in Austria. The results indicate that the seasonality of the low-flow regime is an important factor affecting the performance of model calibration in the reference period and the uncertainty of Q95 low-flow projections in the future period. In Austria, the range of simulated Q95 in the reference period is larger in basins with a summer low-flow regime than in basins with a winter low-flow regime. The accuracy of simulated Q95 may result in a range of up to 60 % depending on the decade used for calibration. The low-flow projections of Q95 show an increase of low flows in the Alps, typically in the range of 10–30 % and a decrease in the south-eastern part of Austria mostly in the range −5 to −20 % for the climate change projected for the future period 2021–2050, relative the reference period 1978–2007. The change in seasonality varies between scenarios, but there is a tendency for earlier low flows in the northern Alps and later low flows in eastern Austria. The total uncertainty of Q95 projections is the largest in basins with a winter low-flow regime and, in some basins the range of Q95 projections exceeds 60 %. In basins with summer low flows, the total uncertainty is mostly less than 20 %. The ANOVA assessment of the relative contribution of the three main variance components (i.e. climate scenario, decade used for model calibration and calibration variant representing different objective function) to the low-flow projection uncertainty shows that in basins with summer low flows climate scenarios contribute more than 75 % to the total projection uncertainty. In basins with a winter low-flow regime, the median contribution of climate scenario, decade and objective function is 29, 13 and 13 %, respectively. The implications of the uncertainties identified in this paper for water resource management are discussed

From the transantarctic basin to the ferrar large igneous province-new palynostratigraphic age constraints for triassic-jurassic sedimentation and magmatism in East Antarctica

We present new palynological data from the Transantarctic Mountains that clarify the timing of sedimentary and magmatic processes in the transition from continental deposition of the Beacon Supergroup to emplacement of the Ferrar Large Igneous Province. Samples were collected from twenty-three Triassic and Jurassic sections in the southern area of north Victoria Land (NVL), East Antarctica. Recovered palynomorph assemblages are correlated with the widely used, although informal palynostratigraphic framework established for eastern Australia by Price. The associated Late Triassic-earliest Jurassic zone, APT5, is modified here with a proposed new subdivision: Lower APT5 ("APT5L"; middle-late Norian), Middle APT5 ("APT5M"; Rhaetian), and Upper APT5 ("APT5U"; Hettangian-earliest Sinemurian). We further propose a modification unifying the relevant formal eastern Australian and New Zealand palynostratigraphic zones, with a new Polycingulatisporites crenulatus Association Zone (new zonal status) that includes the P. crenulatus Association Subzone (new subzone; equivalent to APT5L) and the following Foveosporites moretonensis Association Subzone (new subzonal status; equivalent to APT5M). Our palynostratigraphic dating of the NVL assemblages demonstrates that the onset of sedimentation was diachronous in this part of the Transantarctic Basin, ranging from at least the Rhaetian to, in places, early Sinemurian. By lack of evidence for rocks containing APT5U assemblages and by analogy with the few coeval sections in Australia, we infer that the Hettangian interval in NVL is probably consumed by unconformity. Deposition of ashes from distal silicic volcanism commenced in the early Sinemurian and reached a peak phase beginning in middle Pliensbachian (ca 187. Ma), coinciding with the first major magmatic interval of the silicic Chon Aike Province in Patagonia and West Antarctica. Two major episodes of phreatomagmatic activity, driven by shallow-level sill intrusion into sandstone aquifers, occurred during the middle Pliensbachian and during the late Pliensbachian-early Toarcian. The latter episode was closely followed by the first pillow extrusion and local lava effusion. Contrary to some previous studies, we further conclude that all available palynological evidence is compatible with a short-lived emplacement of the plateau-forming Kirkpatrick Basalt at around 180. Ma during the early Toarcian. © 2014 Elsevier B.V

Multi-methodical realisation of Austrian climate maps for 1971–2000

Constantly changing climate, the availability of a higher resolved digital elevation model and further development of geostatistical interpolation methods gave reason for updating the most frequently demanded climate maps out of the Austrian digital climate atlas from 1961–1990 to 1971–2000. To achieve a station density as high as possible, data from eleven national and foreign institutes were collected and gap-filled. According to the climate parameter, different geostatistical interpolation methods (including regionalised multilinear regressions, geographically weighted regressions and curve fitting to base parameter) were applied. The resultant 17 grids concern 30-year-means of air temperature, precipitation and snow parameters as well as derived indices. They are now available for a variety of scientific and planning purposes

Universal neural field computation

Turing machines and G\"odel numbers are important pillars of the theory of computation. Thus, any computational architecture needs to show how it could relate to Turing machines and how stable implementations of Turing computation are possible. In this chapter, we implement universal Turing computation in a neural field environment. To this end, we employ the canonical symbologram representation of a Turing machine obtained from a G\"odel encoding of its symbolic repertoire and generalized shifts. The resulting nonlinear dynamical automaton (NDA) is a piecewise affine-linear map acting on the unit square that is partitioned into rectangular domains. Instead of looking at point dynamics in phase space, we then consider functional dynamics of probability distributions functions (p.d.f.s) over phase space. This is generally described by a Frobenius-Perron integral transformation that can be regarded as a neural field equation over the unit square as feature space of a dynamic field theory (DFT). Solving the Frobenius-Perron equation yields that uniform p.d.f.s with rectangular support are mapped onto uniform p.d.f.s with rectangular support, again. We call the resulting representation \emph{dynamic field automaton}.Comment: 21 pages; 6 figures. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1204.546

The Virtual Teacher (VT) Paradigm: Learning New Patterns of Interpersonal Coordination Using the Human Dynamic Clamp

The Virtual Teacher paradigm, a version of the Human Dynamic Clamp (HDC), is introduced into studies of learning patterns of inter-personal coordination. Combining mathematical modeling and experimentation, we investigate how the HDC may be used as a Virtual Teacher (VT) to help humans co-produce and internalize new inter-personal coordination pattern(s). Human learners produced rhythmic finger movements whilst observing a computer-driven avatar, animated by dynamic equations stemming from the well-established Haken-Kelso-Bunz (1985) and Schöner-Kelso (1988) models of coordination. We demonstrate that the VT is successful in shifting the pattern co-produced by the VT-human system toward any value (Experiment 1) and that the VT can help humans learn unstable relative phasing patterns (Experiment 2). Using transfer entropy, we find that information flow from one partner to the other increases when VT-human coordination loses stability. This suggests that variable joint performance may actually facilitate interaction, and in the long run learning. VT appears to be a promising tool for exploring basic learning processes involved in social interaction, unraveling the dynamics of information flow between interacting partners, and providing possible rehabilitation opportunities

Apparent contradiction in the projected climatic water balance for Austria: wetter conditions on average versus higher probability of meteorological droughts

In this paper future changes of surface water availability in Austria are investigated. We use an ensemble of downscaled and bias-corrected regional climate model simulations of the EURO-CORDEX initiative under moderate mitigation (RCP4.5) and Paris Agreement (RCP2.6) emission scenarios. The climatic water balance and its components (rainfall, snow melt, glacier melt and atmospheric evaporative demand) are used as indicators of surface water availability, and we focus on different altitudinal classes (lowland, mountainous and high alpine) to depict a variety of processes in complex terrain. Apart from analysing the mean changes of these components, we also pursue a hazard risk approach by estimating future changes in return periods of meteorological drought events of a given magnitude as observed in the reference period. The results show, in general, wetter conditions over the course of the 21st century over Austria on an annual basis compared to the reference period 1981–2010 (e.g. RCP4.5 +107 mm, RCP2.6 +63 mm for the period 2071–2100). Considering seasonal differences, winter and spring are getting wetter due to an increase in precipitation and a higher fraction of rainfall as a consequence of rising temperatures. In summer only little changes in the mean of the climatic water balance conditions are visible across the model ensemble (e.g. RCP4.5 ±0 mm, RCP2.6 −2 mm for the period 2071–2100). On the contrary, by analysing changes in return periods of drought events, an increasing risk of moderate and extreme drought events during summer is apparent, a signal emerging within the climate system along with increasing warming.</p

Climate Changes and Their Elevational Patterns in the Mountains of the World

Quantifying rates of climate change in mountain regions is of considerable interest, not least because mountains are viewed as climate “hotspots” where change can anticipate or amplify what is occurring elsewhere. Accelerating mountain climate change has extensive environmental impacts, including depletion of snow/ice reserves, critical for the world's water supply. Whilst the concept of elevation-dependent warming (EDW), whereby warming rates are stratified by elevation, is widely accepted, no consistent EDW profile at the global scale has been identified. Past assessments have also neglected elevation-dependent changes in precipitation. In this comprehensive analysis, both in situ station temperature and precipitation data from mountain regions, and global gridded data sets (observations, reanalyses, and model hindcasts) are employed to examine the elevation dependency of temperature and precipitation changes since 1900. In situ observations in paired studies (using adjacent stations) show a tendency toward enhanced warming at higher elevations. However, when all mountain/lowland studies are pooled into two groups, no systematic difference in high versus low elevation group warming rates is found. Precipitation changes based on station data are inconsistent with no systematic contrast between mountain and lowland precipitation trends. Gridded data sets (CRU, GISTEMP, GPCC, ERA5, and CMIP5) show increased warming rates at higher elevations in some regions, but on a global scale there is no universal amplification of warming in mountains. Increases in mountain precipitation are weaker than for low elevations worldwide, meaning reduced elevation-dependency of precipitation, especially in midlatitudes. Agreement on elevation-dependent changes between gridded data sets is weak for temperature but stronger for precipitation