Monetary policy in a financial crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under what conditions will a cut have the opposite effects? We answer these questions in a general class of open economy models, where a financial crisis is modeled as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. We find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded good sector and in adjusting the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, then a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing fall in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.Monetary policy ; Financial crises

Monetary Policy in a Financial Crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under what conditions will a cut have the opposite e ffects? We answer these questions in a general class of open economy models, where a financial crisis is modeled as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. We find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded good sector and in adjusting the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, then a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing fall in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.

Optimal Monetary Policy in a 'Sudden Stop'

In the wake of the 1997-98 financial crises, interest rates in Asia were raised immediately, and then reduced sharply. We describe an environment in which this is the optimal monetary policy. The optimality of the immediate rise in the interest rate is an example of the theory of the second best: although high interest rates introduce an inefficiency wedge into the labor market, they are nevertheless welfare improving because they mitigate distortions due to binding collateral constraints. Over time, as various real frictions wear off and the collateral constraint is less binding, the familiar Friedman forces dominate, and interest rates are optimally set as low as possible.

Monetary policy in a financial crisis

What are the economic effects of an interest rate cut when an economy is in the midst of a financial crisis? Under what conditions will a cut stimulate output and employment, and raise welfare? Under which will it have the opposite effects? The authors answer these questions in a general class of open-economy models, modeling a financial crisis as a time when collateral constraints are suddenly binding. They find that when there are frictions in adjusting the level of output in the traded goods sector and the rate at which that output can be used in other parts of the economy, a cut in the interest rate is most likely to result in a welfare-reducing drop in output and employment. When these frictions are absent, a cut in the interest rate improves asset positions and promotes a welfare-increasing economic expansion.Financial crises ; Monetary policy ; Interest rates

Monetary Policy in an International Financial Crisis

We explore the role of monetary policy in the aftermath of a financial crisis. We develop a small open economy model with limited participation of households in a financial intermediary that provides liquidity to satisfy firms' working capital needs. Firms require two forms of working capital: domestic funds to pay for the wage bill and foreign funds to finance imports of intermediate goods. A shortage of either one of the sources of working capital acts as a drag on economic activity. In normal times, an interest rate cut is expansionary. In a financial crisis, collateral constraints bind and an expansion of domestic liquidity leads to a real exchange rate depreciation that further tightens the collateral constraint and offsets the traditional (expansionary) liquidity channel. In addition, the tightening of the collateral constraint places a premium on paying off foreign debt, reinforcing the contractionary effects of an interest rate cut. We study the conditions under which such monetary policy action is contractionary and relate them to recent emerging market crises.