37 years of forest monitoring in Switzerland: drought effects on; Fagus sylvatica

European beech is one of the most important deciduous tree species in natural forest ecosystems in Central Europe. Its dominance is now being questioned by the emerging drought damages due to the increased incidence of severe summer droughts. In Switzerland, Fagus sylvatica have been observed in the Intercantonal Forest Observation Program since 1984. The dataset presented here includes 179176 annual observations of beech trees on 102 plots during 37 years. The plots cover gradients in drought, nitrogen deposition, ozone, age, altitude, and soil chemistry. In dry regions of Switzerland, the dry and hot summer of 2018 caused a serious branch dieback, increased mortality in Fagus sylvatica and increased yellowing of leaves. Beech trees recovered less after 2018 than after the dry summer 2003 which had been similar in drought intensity except that the drought in 2018 started earlier in spring. Our data analyses suggest the importance of drought in subsequent years for crown transparency and mortality in beech. The drought in 2018 followed previous dry years of 2015 and 2017 which pre-weakened the trees. Our long-term data indicate that the drought from up to three previous years were significant predictors for both tree mortality and for the proportion of trees with serious (>60%) crown transparency. The delay in mortality after the weakening event suggests also the importance of weakness parasites. The staining of active vessels with safranine revealed that the cavitation caused by the low tree water potentials in 2018 persisted at least partially in 2019. Thus, the ability of the branches to conduct water was reduced and the branches dried out. Furthermore, photooxidation in light-exposed leaves has increased strongly since 2011. This phenomenon was related to low concentrations of foliar phosphorus (P) and hot temperatures before leaf harvest. The observed drought effects can be categorized as (i) hydraulic failure (branch dieback), (ii) energy starvation as a consequence of closed stomata and P deficiency (photooxidation) and (iii) infestation with weakness parasites (beech bark disease and root rots)

Hybrid Multistarting GA-Tabu Search Method for the Placement of BtB Converters for Korean Metropolitan Ring Grid

This paper presents a method to determine the optimal locations for installing back-to-back (BtB) converters in a power grid as a countermeasure to reduce fault current levels. The installation of BtB converters can be regarded as network reconfiguration. For the purpose, a hybrid multistarting GA-tabu search method was used to determine the best locations from a preselected list of candidate locations. The constraints used in determining the best locations include circuit breaker fault current limits, proximity of proposed locations, and capability of the solution to reach power flow convergence. A simple power injection model after applying line-opening on selected branches was used as a means for power flows with BtB converters. Kron reduction was also applied as a method for network reduction for fast evaluation of fault currents with a given topology. Simulations of the search method were performed on the Korean power system, particularly the Seoul metropolitan area

Analysis of solar direct irradiance models under clear-skies: Evaluation of the improvements for locally adapted models

Direct solar irradiance has to be determined for the design of many energy applications such as photovoltaic systems and concentration systems, and the generation of solar potential maps for energy use. Knowledge of the accurate values of radiation components in a local area will allow optimal sizing of solar energy conversion systems. The estimated values of direct solar irradiance from models are still necessary at those sites where no measurements are available. In this work, different models used for the estimation of the direct component of solar irradiance are analyzed. First, an evaluation of the performance of eight existing original models was performed from which three were selected. Second, the selected models were calibrated to adapt them to our studied geographical area, which is the important aspect of this work, and an assessment of performance improvements for locally adapted models is reported. Experimental data consisted of hourly horizontal global, direct, and diffuse solar irradiance values, provided by the National Meteorological Agency in Spain (AEMET) for Madrid. Long-term data series, corresponding to a total period of time of 32 years (1980–2011), have been used in this study. Only clear sky models were treated at present. The three selected models were adapted to the specific location of Madrid, and root mean square error (RMSE) and mean-biased error were determined. By comparing the performance in the direct horizontal irradiance estimation from existing original and the corresponding locally adapted models, it is found that the values of RMSE decreased from 9.9% to 5.7% for the Louche model, from 7.8% to 7.4% for the Robledo-Soler model, and finally from 8.8% to 6.7% for the European Solar Radiation Atlas model. Thus, significant improvements can be reached when parametric models are locally adapted. In our case, it is up to approximately 4% for the Louche model. It is expected that calibrated algorithms presented in this work will be applicable to regions of similar climatic characteristics.Spanish Government (grant ENE2011-27511) and the Department of Culture and Education of the Regional Government of Castilla y León, Spain (grant BU358A12-2

Bayesian methods for the combination of core sampling data with historical models for tank characterization

A wide variety of information is available on the contents of the nuclear waste tanks at the Hanford site. This report describes an attempt to combine several sources of information using a Bayesian statistical approach. This methodology allows the combination of multiple disparate information sources. After each source of information is summarized in terms of a probability distribution function (pdf), Bayes` theorem is applied to combine them. This approach has been applied to characterizing tanks B-110, B-111, and B-201. These tanks were chosen for their simple waste matrices: B-110 and B-111 contain mostly 2C waste, and B-201 contains mostly 224 waste. Additionally,, the results of this analysis axe used to make predictions for tank T-111 (which contains both 2C and 224 waste). These predictions are compared to the estimates based on core samples from tank T-111

Tank characterization report for single-shell Tank B-201

The purpose of this report is to characterize the waste in single shell Tank B-201. Characterization includes the determination of the physical, chemical (e.g., concentrations of elements and organic species), and radiological properties of the waste. These determinations are made using analytical results from B-201 core samples as well as historical information about the tank. The main objective is to determine average waste properties: but in some cases, concentrations of analytes as a function of depth were also determined. This report also consolidates the available historical information regarding Tank B-201, arranges the analytical information from the recent core sampling in a useful format, and provides an interpretation of the data within the context of what is known about the tank

Mortality forecasting in Colombia from abridged life tables by sex

[EN] BACKGROUND: An adequate forecasting model of mortality that allows an analysis of different population changes is a topic of interest for countries in demographic transition. Phenomena such as the reduction of mortality, ageing, and the increase in life expectancy are extremely useful in the planning of public policies that seek to promote the economic and social development of countries. To our knowledge, this paper is one of the first to evaluate the performance of mortality forecasting models applied to abridged life tables. OBJECTIVE: Select a mortality model that best describes and forecasts the characteristics of mortality in Colombia when only abridged life tables are available. DATA AND METHOD: We used Colombian abridged life tables for the period 1973-2005 with data from the Latin American Human Mortality Database. Different mortality models to deal with modeling and forecasting probability of death are presented in this study. For the comparison of mortality models, two criteria were analyzed: graphical residuals analysis and the hold-out method to evaluate the predictive performance of the models, applying different goodness of fit measures. RESULTS: Only three models did not have convergence problems: Lee-Carter (LC), Lee-Carter with two terms (LC2), and Age-Period-Cohort (APC) models. All models fit better for women, the improvement of LC2 on LC is mostly for central ages for men, and the APC model's fit is worse than the other two. The analysis of the standardized deviance residuals allows us to deduce that the models that reasonably fit the Colombian mortality data are LC and LC2. The major residuals correspond to children's ages and later ages for both sexes. 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