The Economy and Loss Given Default: Evidence from Two UK Retail Lending Datasets

Loss given default (LGD) models predict losses as a proportion of the outstanding loan, in the event a debtor goes into default. The literature on corporate sector LGD models suggests LGD is correlated to the economy and so changes in the economy could translate into different predictions of losses. In this work, the role of macroeconomic variables in loan-level retail LGD models is examined by testing the inclusion of macroeconomic variables in two different retail LGD models: a two-stage model for a residential mortgage loans data set and an ordinary least squares model for an unsecured personal loans data set. To improve loan-level predictions of LGD, indicators relating to the macroeconomy are considered with mixed results: the selected macroeconomic variable seemed able to improve the predictive performance of mortgage loan LGD estimates, but not for personal loan LGD. For mortgage loan LGD, interest rate was most beneficial but only predicted better during downturn periods, underestimating LGD during non-downturn periods. For personal loan LGD, only net lending growth is statistically significant but including this variable did not bring any improvement to R2

Small-molecule Wnt agonists correct cleft palates in Pax9 mutant mice in utero.

Clefts of the palate and/or lip are among the most common human craniofacial malformations and involve multiple genetic and environmental factors. Defects can only be corrected surgically and require complex life-long treatments. Our studies utilized the well-characterized Pax9(-/-) mouse model with a consistent cleft palate phenotype to test small-molecule Wnt agonist therapies. We show that the absence of Pax9 alters the expression of Wnt pathway genes including Dkk1 and Dkk2, proven antagonists of Wnt signaling. The functional interactions between Pax9 and Dkk1 are shown by the genetic rescue of secondary palate clefts in Pax9(-/-)Dkk1(f/+);Wnt1Cre embryos. The controlled intravenous delivery of small-molecule Wnt agonists (Dkk inhibitors) into pregnant Pax9(+/-) mice restored Wnt signaling and led to the growth and fusion of palatal shelves, as marked by an increase in cell proliferation and osteogenesis in utero, while other organ defects were not corrected. This work underscores the importance of Pax9-dependent Wnt signaling in palatogenesis and suggests that this functional upstream molecular relationship can be exploited for the development of therapies for human cleft palates that arise from single-gene disorders

Curriculum vitae of the LOTOS-EUROS (v2.0) chemistry transport model

The development and application of chemistry transport models has a long tradition. Within the Netherlands the LOTOS–EUROS model has been developed by a consortium of institutes, after combining its independently developed predecessors in 2005. Recently, version 2.0 of the model was released as an open-source version. This paper presents the curriculum vitae of the model system, describing the model's history, model philosophy, basic features and a validation with EMEP stations for the new benchmark year 2012, and presents cases with the model's most recent and key developments. By setting the model developments in context and providing an outlook for directions for further development, the paper goes beyond the common model description. With an origin in ozone and sulfur modelling for the models LOTOS and EUROS, the application areas were gradually extended with persistent organic pollutants, reactive nitrogen, and primary and secondary particulate matter. After the combination of the models to LOTOS–EUROS in 2005, the model was further developed to include new source parametrizations (e.g. road resuspension, desert dust, wildfires), applied for operational smog forecasts in the Netherlands and Europe, and has been used for emission scenarios, source apportionment, and long-term hindcast and climate change scenarios. LOTOS–EUROS has been a front-runner in data assimilation of ground-based and satellite observations and has participated in many model intercomparison studies. The model is no longer confined to applications over Europe but is also applied to other regions of the world, e.g. China. The increasing interaction with emission experts has also contributed to the improvement of the model's performance. The philosophy for model development has always been to use knowledge that is state of the art and proven, to keep a good balance in the level of detail of process description and accuracy of input and output, and to keep a good record on the effect of model changes using benchmarking and validation. The performance of v2.0 with respect to EMEP observations is good, with spatial correlations around 0.8 or higher for concentrations and wet deposition. Temporal correlations are around 0.5 or higher. Recent innovative applications include source apportionment and data assimilation, particle number modelling, and energy transition scenarios including corresponding land use changes as well as Saharan dust forecasting. Future developments would enable more flexibility with respect to model horizontal and vertical resolution and further detailing of model input data. This includes the use of different sources of land use characterization (roughness length and vegetation), detailing of emissions in space and time, and efficient coupling to meteorology from different meteorological models

Chiropractic spinal manipulation prevents secondary hyperalgesia induced by topical capsaicin in healthy individuals

Background and Aims: Spinal manipulation (SM) is currently recommended for the management of back pain. Experimental studies indicate that the hypoalgesic mechanisms of SM may rely on inhibition of segmental processes related to temporal summation of pain and, possibly, on central sensitization, although this remains unclear. The aim of this study was to determine whether experimental back pain, secondary hyperalgesia, and pain-related brain activity induced by capsaicin are decreased by segmental SM. Methods: Seventy-three healthy volunteers were randomly allocated to one of four experimental groups: SM at T5 vertebral level (segmental), SM at T9 vertebral level (heterosegmental), placebo intervention at T5 vertebral level, or no intervention. Topical capsaicin was applied to the area of T5 vertebra for 40 min. After 20 min, the interventions were administered. Pressure pain thresholds (PPTs) were assessed outside the area of capsaicin application at 0 and 40 min to examine secondary hyperalgesia. Capsaicin pain intensity and unpleasantness were reported every 4 min. Frontal high-gamma oscillations were also measured with electroencephalography. Results: Pain ratings and brain activity were not significantly different between groups over time (p > 0.5). However, PPTs were significantly decreased in the placebo and control groups (p < 0.01), indicative of secondary hyperalgesia, while no hyperalgesia was observed for groups receiving SM (p = 1.0). This effect was independent of expectations and greater than placebo for segmental (p < 0.01) but not heterosegmental SM (p = 1.0). Conclusions: These results indicate that segmental SM can prevent secondary hyperalgesia, independently of expectations. This has implications for the management of back pain, particularly when central sensitization is involved

EFO-LCI: A New Life Cycle Inventory Database of Forestry Operations in Europe

Life cycle assessment (LCA) has become a common methodology to analyze environmental impacts of forestry systems. Although LCA has been widely applied to forestry since the 90s, the LCAs are still often based on generic Life Cycle Inventory (LCI). With the purpose of improving LCA practices in the forestry sector, we developed a European Life Cycle Inventory of Forestry Operations (EFO-LCI) and analyzed the available information to check if within the European forestry sector national differences really exist. We classified the European forests on the basis of "Forest Units" (combinations of tree species and silvicultural practices). For each Forest Unit, we constructed the LCI of their forest management practices on the basis of a questionnaire filled out by national silvicultural experts. We analyzed the data reported to evaluate how they vary over Europe and how they affect LCA results and made freely available the inventory data collected for future use. The study shows important variability in rotation length, type of regeneration, amount and assortments of wood products harvested, and machinery used due to the differences in management practices. The existing variability on these activities sensibly affect LCA results of forestry practices and raw wood production. Although it is practically unfeasible to collect site-specific data for all the LCAs involving forest-based products, the use of less generic LCI data of forestry practice is desirable to improve the reliability of the studies. With the release of EFO-LCI we made a step toward the construction of regionalized LCI for the European forestry sector

Clinical, Pathologic, and Functional Outcomes After Nephron-Sparing Surgery in Patients with a Solitary Kidney: A Multicenter Experience

Abstract Background and Purpose: Surgical management of a renal neoplasm in a solitary kidney is a balance between oncologic control and preservation of renal function. We analyzed patients with a renal mass in a solitary kidney undergoing nephron-sparing procedures to determine perioperative, oncologic, and renal functional outcomes. Patients and Methods: A multicenter study was performed from 12 institutions. All patients with a functional or anatomic solitary kidney who underwent nephron-sparing surgery for one or more renal masses were included. Tumor size, complications, and recurrence rates were recorded. Renal function was assessed with serum creatinine level and estimated glomerular filtration rate. Results: Ninety-eight patients underwent 105 ablations, and 100 patients underwent partial nephrectomy (PN). Preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was similar between the groups. Tumors managed with PN were significantly larger than those managed with ablation (P<0.001). Ablations were associated with a lower overall complication rate (9.5% vs 24%, P=0.01) and higher local recurrence rate (6.7% vs 3%, P=0.04). Eighty-four patients had a preoperative eGFR ≥60?mL/min/1.73?m2. Among these patients, 19 (23%) fell below this threshold after 3 months and 15 (18%) at 12 months. Postoperatively, there was no significant difference in eGFR between the groups. Conclusions: Extirpation and ablation are both reasonable options for treatment. Ablation is more minimally invasive, albeit with higher recurrence rates compared with PN. Postoperative renal function is similar in both groups and is not affected by surgical approach.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/98449/1/end%2E2012%2E0114.pd