Methods of Multivariable Earthquake Precursor Analysis and a Proposed Prototype Earthquake Early Warning System

Significant advances are being made in earthquake prediction theory; however, a reliable method for forecasting the occurrence of earthquakes from space and/or ground based technologies remains limited to no more than a few minutes before the event happens. Several claims of earthquake precursors have been put forward, such as ionospheric changes, electromagnetic effects, and ground heating, though the science behind these is far from complete and the successful application of these precursors is highly regionally variable. Existing and planned dedicated space missions for monitoring earthquake precursors are insufficient for resolving the precursor issue. Their performance does not satisfy the requirements of an earthquake early warning system in terms of spatial and temporal coverage. To achieve statistically significant validation of precursors for early warning delivery, precursor data must be obtained from simultaneous repeated monitoring of several precursors in focus regions over a long period of time and then integrated and processed. Data sources include historical data, data from ground-based units, airborne systems, and space-based systems. This paper describes methods of systematic evaluation of regionally specific, multivariable precursor data needed for the identification of the expected time, magnitude and the position of the epicentre. This data set forms the basis for a proposed operational early warning system developed at the International Space University and which is built in partnership with local and national governments as well as international organizations

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life, human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over the course of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the form of a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capability to manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves the existing knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system will at first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursor monitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarning system. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine, integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing and new proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, fault maps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the main components of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precision in the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It is based in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-event damage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of a geographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs to provide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, such as the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included

Policy Entrepreneurship and Multilevel Governance: A Comparative Study of European Cross-Border Regions

This article was publsihed in the journal, Environment and Planning C [© Pion]. The definitive version is available at: http://www.envplan.com/C.htmlThis article addresses the recent proliferation of Cross-Border Regions, or Euroregions, in Europe. It argues that EU multi-level governance patterns generate opportunities for entrepreneurial policy organisations to attract policy tasks and resources. This is conceptualised as policy entrepreneurship and applied to a comparative case study analysis of three Euroregions: EUREGIO (Germany – Netherlands), Viadrina (Poland – Germany) and Tyrol (Austria – Italy). The analysis focuses on the ability of these initiatives to establish themselves as autonomous organisations. It finds considerable variation across the cases in this respect. Following on from this, the paper shows how different administrative and institutional environments in different EU member states affect the ability of Euroregions to engage in policy entrepreneurship. It concludes that is it premature to perceive Euroregions as new types of regional territorial entities; rather, they are part of the policy innovation scenario enabled by EU multi-level governance

Socio-economic benefits of using space technologies to monitor and respond to earthquakes

Earthquakes represent a major hazard for populations around the world, causing frequent loss of life, human suffering and enormous damage to homes, other buildings and infrastructure. The Technology Resources for Earthquake Monitoring and Response (TREMOR) Team of 36 space professionals analysed this problem over the course of the International Space University Summer Session Program and published their recommendations in the form of a report. The TREMOR Team proposes a series of space- and ground-based systems to provide improved capability to manage earthquakes. The first proposed system is a prototype earthquake early-warning system that improves the existing knowledge of earthquake precursors and addresses the potential of these phenomena. Thus, the system will at first enable the definitive assessment of whether reliable earthquake early warning is possible through precursor monitoring. Should the answer be affirmative, the system itself would then form the basis of an operational earlywarning system. To achieve these goals, the authors propose a multi-variable approach in which the system will combine, integrate and process precursor data from space- and ground-based seismic monitoring systems (already existing and new proposed systems) and data from a variety of related sources (e.g. historical databases, space weather data, fault maps). The second proposed system, the prototype earthquake simulation and response system, coordinates the main components of the response phase to reduce the time delays of response operations, increase the level of precision in the data collected, facilitate communication amongst teams, enhance rescue and aid capabilities and so forth. It is based in part on an earthquake simulator that will provide pre-event (if early warning is proven feasible) and post-event damage assessment and detailed data of the affected areas to corresponding disaster management actors by means of a geographic information system (GIS) interface. This is coupled with proposed mobile satellite communication hubs to provide links between response teams. Business- and policy-based implementation strategies for these proposals, such as the establishment of a non-governmental organisation to develop and operate the systems, are included.Postprint (published version

Euroregions: Institutional Entrepreneurship in the European Union

This is chapter from the book, Globalization, regionalization, and cross-border regions

Subsistence fishing in the Eeyou Istchee (James Bay, Quebec, Canada): A regional investigation of fish consumption as a route of exposure to methylmercury

Fishing is part of the traditional activities of Indigenous people in Canada. However, it is also a route of exposure to methylmercury, a known neurotoxicant, and this is a concern for those who rely on fish as part of their diet. The probable weekly intake (PWI) of methylmercury from six species of fish was calculated for Indigenous community members (N = 1406), grouped by age and sex, and compared to Canadian and international provisional reference doses to assess exposure. Mixed-effects regression models were also used to estimate the input of methylmercury into the blood, and Hazard Quotients (HQ) were used to assess potential effects. Of the species of fish in our study, walleye and lake trout contributed the most to methylmercury intake. There was a positive association between the consumption of walleye and the total blood mercury concentrations of mercury in women and men (R2A = 0.40 and 0.47, respectively), and to a lesser extent, children. Similar results were observed for the consumption of lake trout. The 95th-percentile HQ for girls (3.16) and boys (3.18) from the consumption of lake trout was relatively high, and to a lesser extent, so was the HQ for walleye and pike. The consumption of some species of fish increases the exposure to methylmercury, however, taking a balanced approach, there are health benefits associated with the consumption of fish that must be considered. To mitigate future exposure to methylmercury, we recommend follow-up blood monitoring and local-geospatial-based assessments

Using a geographic information system to assess local scale methylmercury exposure from fish in nine communities of the Eeyou Istchee territory (James Bay, Quebec, Canada)

Exposure to methylmercury is a concern for those who rely on fish as a traditional food in the Eeyou Istchee territory of James Bay, Quebec, Canada, because industrial land uses overlap with community water bodies where fish are harvested. Consequently, this study assessed if traditional practices, particularly fishing, increased the risk of exposure to methylmercury from the consumption of locally harvested fish. We designed a geographic information system (GIS) that included land use and fish methylmercury tissue concentrations to assess clustering of potential hot spots. We also used generalized linear models to assess the association of fish consumption to blood organic-mercury concentrations, and logistic regression models to assess the probability of fish exceeding the safety threshold for methylmercury tissue concentrations in areas of high intensity land use. The GIS demonstrated significant clustered hot spots around regions of hydroelectric and mining land use. Our results also revealed that adult consumption of pike, lake trout and/or walleye, and child consumption of pike or walleye were significantly associated with blood organic-mercury concentrations. Further, large fish harvested in a community with high intensity land use yielded a 77% probability that the fish exceeded the safety threshold. From a human exposure perspective, our study highlights the need for further research on children who consume fish from this region

Real time signal detection and computer visualization of the patient respiration

The article deals with the realization of the measurement chain for monitoring patient respiratory activity during radiotherapy. The primary requirement is a real time process monitoring of patient respiration during radiotherapy. The main part of the measuring chain is sensing element which converts the patient’s breathing movements into electrical signals. Different possibilities of obtaining these data are described. An essential part of a comprehensive monitoring system is a software environment for the analysis and testing of the acquired data. The output signals which correspond to the ventilation state of the patient are graphically visualized in the user environment, which is created in LabVIEW

Complex contaminant mixtures and their associations with intima-media thickness

Abstract Background The burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality is higher among Indigenous persons, who also experience greater health disparities when compared to non-Indigenous Canadians, particularly in remote regions of Canada. Assessment of carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), a noninvasive screening tool and can be used as biomarker to assess increased CVD risk. Few studies have examined environmental contaminant body burden and its association with cIMT. Methods Data from the Environment-and-Health Study in the Eeyou Istchee territory of northern Québec, Canada was used to assess complex body burden mixtures of POPs, metals and metalloids among (n = 535) Indigenous people between 15 and 87 years of age with cIMT. First, Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to reduce the complexity of the contaminant data. Second, based on the underlying PCA profiles from the biological data, we examined each of the prominent principal component (PC) axes on cIMT using multivariable linear regression models. Lastly, based on these PC axes, cIMT was also regressed on summed (Σ) organic compound concentrations, polychlorinated biphenyl, perfluorinated compounds, respectively, ∑10 OCs, ∑13 PCBs, ∑3PFCs, and nickel. Results Most organochlorines and PFCs loaded primarily on PC-1 (53% variation). Nickel, selenium, and cadmium were found to load on PC-5. Carotid-IMT was significantly associated with PC-1 β = 0.004 (95 % CI 0.001, 0.007), and PC-5 β = 0.013 (95 % CI 0.002, 0.023). However, the association appears to be greater for PC-5, accounting for 3% of the variation, and mostly represented by nickel. Results show that that both nickel, and ∑3PFCs were similarly associated with cIMT β = 0.001 (95 % CI 0.0003, 0.003), and β = 0.001 (95 % CI 0.0004, 0.002), respectively. But ∑10OCs was significantly associated with a slightly greater β = 0.004 (95 % CI 0.001, 0.007) cIMT change, though with less precision. Lastly, ∑13PCBs also increased β = 0.002 (95 % CI 0.0004, 0.003) cIMT after fully adjusting for covariates. Conclusion Our results suggest that environmental contaminants are associated with cIMT. This is important for the Cree from the Eeyou Istchee territory who may experience higher body burdens of contaminants than non-Indigenous Canadians