Fundamental and financial influences on the co-movement of oil and gas prices

As speculative flows into commodity futures are expected to link commodity prices more strongly to equity indices, we investigate whether this process also creates increased correlations amongst the commodities themselves. Considering U.S. oil and gas futures, we investigate whether common factors, derived from a large international data set of real and nominal macroeconomic variables by means of the large approximate factor models methodology, are able to explain both returns and whether, beyond these fundamental common factors, the residuals remain correlated. We further investigate a possible explanation for this residual correlation by using some proxies for trading intensity derived from CFTC publicly available data, showing most notably that the proxy for speculation in the oil market increases the oil-gas correlation. We thus identify the central role of financial activities in shaping the link between oil and gas returns

The VIRMOS deep imaging survey: I. overview and survey strategy

This paper presents the CFH12K-VIRMOS survey: a deep B, V, R and I imaging survey in four fields totalling more than 17 deg^2, conducted with the 30x40 arcmin^2 field CFH-12K camera. The survey is intended to be a multi-purpose survey used for a variety of science goals, including surveys of very high redshift galaxies and weak lensing studies. Four high galactic latitude fields, each 2x2 deg^2, have been selected along the celestial equator: 0226-04, 1003+01, 1400+05, and 2217+00. The 16 deg^2 of the "wide" survey are covered with exposure times of 2h, 1.5h, 1h, 1h, while the 1.3x1 deg^2 area of the "deep" survey at the center of the 0226-04 field is covered with exposure times of 7h, 4.5h, 3h, 3h, in B,V,R and I respectively. The data is pipeline processed at the Terapix facility at the Institut d'Astrophysique de Paris to produce large mosaic images. The catalogs produced contain the positions, shape, total and aperture magnitudes for the 2.175 million objects. The depth measured (3sigma in a 3 arc-second aperture) is I_{AB}=24.8 in the ``Wide'' areas, and I_{AB}=25.3 in the deep area. Careful quality control has been applied on the data as described in joint papers. These catalogs are used to select targets for the VIRMOS-VLT Deep Survey, a large spectroscopic survey of the distant universe (Le F\`evre et al., 2003). First results from the CFH12K-VIRMOS survey have been published on weak lensing (e.g. van Waerbeke & Mellier 2003). Catalogs and images are available through the VIRMOS database environment under Oracle ({\tt http://www.oamp.fr/virmos}). They will be open for general use on July 1st, 2003.Comment: 17 pages including 9 figures, submitted to A&

Cosmic Shear Statistics and Cosmology

We report a measurement of cosmic shear correlations using an effective area of 6.5 sq. deg. of the VIRMOS deep imaging survey in progress at the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope. We measured various shear correlation functions, the aperture mass statistic and the top-hat smoothed variance of the shear with a detection significance exceeding 12 sigma for each of them. We present results on angular scales from 3 arc-seconds to half a degree. The consistency of different statistical measures is demonstrated and confirms the lensing origin of the signal through tests that rely on the scalar nature of the gravitational potential. For Cold Dark Matter models we find $\sigma_8 \Omega_0^{0.6}=0.43^{+0.04}_{-0.05}$ at the 95% confidence level. The measurement over almost three decades of scale allows to discuss the effect of the shape of the power spectrum on the cosmological parameter estimation. The degeneracy on sigma_8-Omega_0 can be broken if priors on the shape of the linear power spectrum (that can be parameterized by Gamma) are assumed. For instance, with Gamma=0.21 and at the 95% confidence level, we obtain 0.60.65 and Omega_0<0.4 for flat (Lambda-CDM) models. From the tangential/radial modes decomposition we can set an upper limit on the intrinsic shape alignment, which was recently suggested as a possible contribution to the lensing signal. Within the error bars, there is no detection of intrinsic shape alignment for scales larger than 1'.Comment: 13 pages, submitted to A&

Cosmic Shear Analysis with CFHTLS Deep data

We present the first cosmic shear measurements obtained from the T0001 release of the Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey. The data set covers three uncorrelated patches (D1, D3 and D4) of one square degree each observed in u*, g', r', i' and z' bands, out to i'=25.5. The depth and the multicolored observations done in deep fields enable several data quality controls. The lensing signal is detected in both r' and i' bands and shows similar amplitude and slope in both filters. B-modes are found to be statistically zero at all scales. Using multi-color information, we derived a photometric redshift for each galaxy and separate the sample into medium and high-z galaxies. A stronger shear signal is detected from the high-z subsample than from the low-z subsample, as expected from weak lensing tomography. While further work is needed to model the effects of errors in the photometric redshifts, this results suggests that it will be possible to obtain constraints on the growth of dark matter fluctuations with lensing wide field surveys. The various quality tests and analysis discussed in this work demonstrate that MegaPrime/Megacam instrument produces excellent quality data. The combined Deep and Wide surveys give sigma_8= 0.89 pm 0.06 assuming the Peacock & Dodds non-linear scheme and sigma_8=0.86 pm 0.05 for the halo fitting model and Omega_m=0.3. We assumed a Cold Dark Matter model with flat geometry. Systematics, Hubble constant and redshift uncertainties have been marginalized over. Using only data from the Deep survey, the 1 sigma upper bound for w_0, the constant equation of state parameter is w_0 < -0.8.Comment: 14 pages, 16 figures, accepted A&

Cost-Effectiveness of Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy in South Africa

BACKGROUND: Little information exists on the impact of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on health-care provision in South Africa despite increasing scale-up of access to HAART and gradual reduction in HAART prices. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Use and cost of services for 265 HIV-infected adults without AIDS (World Health Organization [WHO] stage 1, 2, or 3) and 27 with AIDS (WHO stage 4) receiving HAART between 1995 and 2000 in Cape Town were compared with HIV-infected controls matched for baseline WHO stage, CD4 count, age, and socioeconomic status, who did not receive antiretroviral therapy (ART; No-ART group). Costs of service provision (January 2004 prices, US$1 = 7.6 Rand) included local unit costs, and two scenarios for HAART prices for WHO recommended first-line regimens: scenario 1 used current South African public-sector ART drug prices of$730 per patient-year (PPY), whereas scenario 2 was based on the anticipated public-sector price for locally manufactured drug of $181 PPY. All analyses are presented in terms of patients without AIDS and patients with AIDS. For patients without AIDS, the mean number of inpatient days PPY was 1.08 (95$950 for the No-ART group versus $1,342 and$793 PPY for the HAART group for scenario 1 and 2, respectively, whereas the incremental cost per life-year gained (LYG) was $1,622 for scenario 1 and$675 for scenario 2. For patients with AIDS, mean inpatients days PPY was 2.04 (95% CI: 1.63–2.52) for the HAART versus 15.36 (95% CI: 13.97–16.85) for the No-ART group. Mean outpatient visits PPY was 7.62 (95% CI: 6.81–8.49) compared with 6.60 (95% CI: 5.69–7.62) respectively. Average service provision PPY was $3,520 for the No-ART group versus$1,513 and $964 for the HAART group for scenario 1 and 2, respectively, whereas the incremental cost per LYG was cost saving for both scenarios. In a sensitivity analysis based on the lower (25$1,557 to $1,772 for the group without AIDS and from cost saving to$111 for patients with AIDS. CONCLUSION: HAART is a cost-effective intervention in South Africa, and cost saving when HAART prices are further reduced. Our estimates, however, were based on direct costs, and as such the actual cost saving might have been underestimated if indirect costs were also included

piRNAs Can Trigger a Multigenerational Epigenetic Memory in the Germline of C. elegans

SummaryTransgenerational effects have wide-ranging implications for human health, biological adaptation, and evolution; however, their mechanisms and biology remain poorly understood. Here, we demonstrate that a germline nuclear small RNA/chromatin pathway can maintain stable inheritance for many generations when triggered by a piRNA-dependent foreign RNA response in C.elegans. Using forward genetic screens and candidate approaches, we find that a core set of nuclear RNAi and chromatin factors is required for multigenerational inheritance of environmental RNAi and piRNA silencing. These include a germline-specific nuclear Argonaute HRDE1/WAGO-9, a HP1 ortholog HPL-2, and two putative histone methyltransferases, SET-25 and SET-32. piRNAs can trigger highly stable long-term silencing lasting at least 20 generations. Once established, this long-term memory becomes independent of the piRNA trigger but remains dependent on the nuclear RNAi/chromatin pathway. Our data present a multigenerational epigenetic inheritance mechanism induced by piRNAs.Graphical AbstractHighlights► Multigenerational inheritance and piRNAs converge on same nuclear silencing pathway ► HRDE1/WAGO-9 and chromatin factors required for inheritance of piRNA silencing ► piRNAs can induce multigenerational silencing for more than 20 generations. ► Long-term memory independent of piRNA triggers but remains dependent on nuclear pathwayMultigenerational inheritance and piRNAs converge on same silencing pathway, in which both nuclear WAGOs and chromatin factors are required. The piRNA trigger can be lost, but the nuclear silencing pathway maintains the silencing for more than 20 generations

Combined Discrete-Continuum Analysis for Ballasted Rail Tracks

A study on the load-deformation behaviour of railway ballast aggregates subjected to cyclic loadings using a combined discrete-continuum modelling approach is presented. Discrete ballast particles are simulated in the DEM and the continuum-based subgrade is simulated by the FDM. Interface elements are generated to transmit contact forces and displacements between the two domains (i.e. discrete and continuum) whereby the DEM exchanges contact forces to the FDM, and then the FDM transfers the displacement back to the DEM. Distributions of contact forces, coordination number, stress contours on the subgrade and corresponding number of broken bonds (representing ballast breakage) are analysed

Acute weight gain, gender, and therapeutic response to antipsychotics in the treatment of patients with schizophrenia

BACKGROUND: Previous research indicated that women are more vulnerable than men to adverse psychological consequences of weight gain. Other research has suggested that weight gain experienced during antipsychotic therapy may also psychologically impact women more negatively. This study assessed the impact of acute treatment-emergent weight gain on clinical and functional outcomes of patients with schizophrenia by patient gender and antipsychotic treatment (olanzapine or haloperidol). METHODS: Data were drawn from the acute phase (first 6-weeks) of a double-blind randomized clinical trial of olanzapine versus haloperidol in the treatment of 1296 men and 700 women with schizophrenia-spectrum disorders. The associations between weight change and change in core schizophrenia symptoms, depressive symptoms, and functional status were examined post-hoc for men and women and for each medication group. Core schizophrenia symptoms (positive and negative) were measured with the Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale (BPRS), depressive symptoms with the BPRS Anxiety/Depression Scale and the Montgomery-Asberg Depression Rating Scale, and functional status with the mental and physical component scores on the Medical Outcome Survey-Short Form 36. Statistical analysis included methods that controlled for treatment duration. RESULTS: Weight gain during 6-week treatment with olanzapine and haloperidol was significantly associated with improvements in core schizophrenia symptoms, depressive symptoms, mental functioning, and physical functioning for men and women alike. The conditional probability of clinical response (20% reduction in core schizophrenia symptom), given a clinically significant weight gain (at least 7% of baseline weight), showed that about half of the patients who lost weight responded to treatment, whereas three-quarters of the patients who had a clinically significant weight gain responded to treatment. The positive associations between therapeutic response and weight gain were similar for the olanzapine and haloperidol treatment groups. Improved outcomes were, however, more pronounced for the olanzapine-treated patients, and more olanzapine-treated patients gained weight. CONCLUSIONS: The findings of significant relationships between treatment-emergent weight gain and improvements in clinical and functional status at 6-weeks suggest that patients who have greater treatment-emergent weight gain are more likely to benefit from treatment with olanzapine or haloperidol regardless of gender