Reply to: ''Improved Determination of the CKM Angle alpha from B -> pipi decays''

In reply to hep-ph/0701204 we demonstrate why the arguments made therein do not address the criticism exposed in hep-ph/0607246 on the fundamental shortcomings of the Bayesian approach when it comes to the extraction of parameters of Nature from experimental data. As for the isospin analysis and the CKM angle alpha it is shown that the use of uniform priors for the observed quantities in the Explicit Solution parametrization is equivalent to a frequentist construction resulting from a change of variables, and thus relies neither on prior PDFs nor on Bayes' theorem. This procedure provides in this particular case results that are similar to the Confidence Level approach, but the treatment of mirror solutions remains incorrect and it is far from being general. In a second part it is shown that important differences subsist between the Bayesian and frequentist approaches, when following the proposal of hep-ph/0701204 and inserting additional information on the hadronic amplitudes beyond isospin invariance. In particular the frequentist result preserves the exact degeneracy that is expected from the remaining symmetries of the problem while the Bayesian procedure does not. Moreover, in the Bayesian approach reducing inference to the 68% or 95% credible interval is a misconception of the meaning of the posterior PDF, which in turn implies that the significant dependence of the latter to the chosen parametrization cannot be viewed as a minor effect, contrary to the claim in hep-ph/0701204.Comment: 5 pages, 1 figure. Fig. 1 corrected (wrong file

Bayesian Statistics at Work: the Troublesome Extraction of the CKM Phase alpha

In Bayesian statistics, one's prior beliefs about underlying model parameters are revised with the information content of observed data from which, using Bayes' rule, a posterior belief is obtained. A non-trivial example taken from the isospin analysis of B-->PP (P = pi or rho) decays in heavy-flavor physics is chosen to illustrate the effect of the naive "objective" choice of flat priors in a multi-dimensional parameter space in presence of mirror solutions. It is demonstrated that the posterior distribution for the parameter of interest, the phase alpha, strongly depends on the choice of the parameterization in which the priors are uniform, and on the validity range in which the (un-normalizable) priors are truncated. We prove that the most probable values found by the Bayesian treatment do not coincide with the explicit analytical solution, in contrast to the frequentist approach. It is also shown in the appendix that the alpha-->0 limit cannot be consistently treated in the Bayesian paradigm, because the latter violates the physical symmetries of the problem.Comment: 17 pages, 10 figure

Towards a global fit to extract the B->Xs gamma decay rate and Vub

The total B->Xs gamma decay rate and the CKM-matrix element Vub play an important role in finding indirect evidence for new physics affecting the flavor sector of the Standard Model, complementary to direct searches at the LHC and Tevatron. Their determination from inclusive B-meson decays requires the precise knowledge of the parton distribution function of the b quark in the B meson, called the shape function. We implement a new model-independent framework for the shape function with reliable uncertainties based on an expansion in a suitable set of basis functions. We present the current status of a global fit to BaBar and Belle data to extract the shape function and the B->Xs gamma decay rate.Comment: 5 pages, 9 figure

A model independent determination of the B -> Xs gamma decay rate

The goal of the SIMBA collaboration is to provide a global fit to the available measurements of inclusive B -> X_s gamma and B -> X_u l nu decays. By performing a global fit one is able to simultaneously determine the relevant normalizations, i.e. the total B -> X_s gamma rate and the CKM-matrix element |Vub|, together with the required hadronic parameters, most importantly the b-quark mass and the b-quark distribution function in the B-meson, called the shape function. In this talk, the current status on the model-independent determination of the shape function and |C7^\incl Vtb Vts*|, which parametrizes the total B -> Xs gamma rate, from a global fit to the available B -> X_s gamma measurements from Babar and Belle is presented. In particular, the theoretical uncertainties originating from variations of the different factorization scales are evaluated.Comment: Proceedings of CKM 2012, the 7th International Workshop on the CKM Unitarity Triangle, University of Cincinnati, USA, 28 September - 2 October 201

Predictions of selected flavour observables within the Standard Model

This letter gathers a selection of Standard Model predictions issued from the metrology of the CKM parameters performed by the CKMfitter group. The selection includes purely leptonic decays of neutral and charged B, D and K mesons. In the light of the expected measurements from the LHCb experiment, a special attention is given to the radiative decay modes of B mesons as well as to the B-meson mixing observables, in particular the semileptonic charge asymmetries a^d,s_SL which have been recently investigated by the D0 experiment at Tevatron. Constraints arising from rare kaon decays are addressed, in light of both current results and expected performances of future rare kaon experiments. All results have been obtained with the CKMfitter analysis package, featuring the frequentist statistical approach and using Rfit to handle theoretical uncertainties.Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, 2 tables. Typos corrected and discussion of agreement between SM and data update

Analysing powers for the reaction n⃗p→ppπ−\vec{\rm n} {\rm p} \to {\rm p} {\rm p} \pi^{-} and for np elastic scattering from 270 to 570 MeV

The analysing power of the reaction ${\rm n}{\rm p} \to {\rm p}{\rm p} \pi^{-}$ for neutron energies between threshold and 570 MeV has been determined using a transversely polarised neutron beam at PSI. The reaction has been studied in a kinematically complete measurement using a time-of-flight spectrometer with large acceptance. Analysing powers have been determined as a function of the c.m. pion angle in different regions of the proton-proton invariant mass. They are compared to other data from the reactions ${\rm n}{\rm p} \to {\rm p}{\rm p} \pi^{-}$ and ${{\rm p}{\rm p} \to {\rm p}{\rm p} \pi^{0}}$. The np elastic scattering analysing power was determined as a by-product of the measurements.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, subitted to EPJ-

The reaction np→ppπ−{n} {p} \to {p} {p} \pi^{-} from threshold up to 570 MeV

The reaction ${n} {p} \to {p} {p} \pi^{-}$ has been studied in a kinematically complete measurement with a large acceptance time-of-flight spectrometer for incident neutron energies between threshold and 570 MeV. The proton-proton invariant mass distributions show a strong enhancement due to the pp($^{1}{S}_{0}$) final state interaction. A large anisotropy was found in the pion angular distributions in contrast to the reaction ${p}{p} \to {p}{p} \pi^{0}$. At small energies, a large forward/backward asymmetry has been observed. From the measured integrated cross section $\sigma({n}{p} \to {\rm p}{p} \pi^{-})$, the isoscalar cross section $\sigma_{01}$ has been extracted. Its energy dependence indicates that mainly partial waves with Sp final states contribute. Note: Due to a coding error, the differential cross sections ${d \sigma}/{d M_{pp}}$ as shown in Fig. 9 are too small by a factor of two, and inn Table 3 the differential cross sections ${d \sigma}/{d \Omega_{\pi}^{*}}$ are too large by a factor of $10/2\pi$. The integrated cross sections and all conclusions remain unchanged. A corresponding erratum has been submitted and accepted by European Physics Journal.Comment: 18 pages, 16 figure

Master equation approach to friction at the mesoscale

At the mesoscale friction occurs through the breaking and formation of local contacts. This is often described by the earthquake-like model which requires numerical studies. We show that this phenomenon can also be described by a master equation, which can be solved analytically in some cases and provides an efficient numerical solution for more general cases. We examine the effect of temperature and aging of the contacts and discuss the statistical properties of the contacts for different situations of friction and their implications, particularly regarding the existence of stick-slip.Comment: To be published in Physical Review

Model-independent extraction of ∣Vtq∣|V_{tq}| matrix elements from top-quark measurements at hadron colliders

Current methods to extract the quark-mixing matrix element $|V_{tb}|$ from single-top production measurements assume that $|V_{tb}|\gg |V_{td}|, |V_{ts}|$: top quarks decay into $b$ quarks with 100% branching fraction, s-channel single-top production is always accompanied by a $b$ quark and initial-state contributions from $d$ and $s$ quarks in the $t$-channel production of single top quarks are neglected. Triggered by a recent measurement of the ratio $R=\frac{|V_{tb}|^{2}}{|V_{td}|^{2}+|V_{ts}|^{2}+|V_{tb}|^{2}}=0.90 \pm 0.04$ performed by the D0 collaboration, we consider a $|V_{tb}|$ extraction method that takes into account non zero d- and s-quark contributions both in production and decay. We propose a strategy that allows to extract consistently and in a model-independent way the quark mixing matrix elements $|V_{td}|$, $|V_{ts}|$, and $|V_{tb}|$ from the measurement of $R$ and from single-top measured event yields. As an illustration, we apply our method to the Tevatron data using a CDF analysis of the measured single-top event yield with two jets in the final state one of which is identified as a $b$-quark jet. We constrain the $|V_{tq}|$ matrix elements within a four-generation scenario by combining the results with those obtained from direct measurements in flavor physics and determine the preferred range for the top-quark decay width within different scenarios.Comment: 36 pages, 17 figure

Status of SIMBA

The goal of the SIMBA collaboration is to provide a global fit to the available data in inclusive B -> X_s gamma and B -> X_u l nu decays. By performing a global fit one is able to simultaneously determine the relevant normalizations, i.e. the total B -> X_s gamma rate and the CKM-matrix element |Vub|, together with the required input parameters, most importantly the b-quark mass and the b-quark distribution function in the B-meson, called the shape function. This strategy is analogous to the determination of |Vcb| from global fits to inclusive B -> X_c l nu decays. In this talk, we present preliminary results for the shape function and |C_7^incl Vtb Vts^*|, which parametrizes the total B -> X_s gamma rate, from a global fit to the available B -> X_s gamma measurements from BABAR and Belle