Risk aversion and Uncertainty in European Sovereign Bond Markets

Risk aversion and uncertainty are often both at play in market price determination, but it is empirically challenging to disentangle one from the other. In this paper we set up a theoretical model particularly suited for opaque over-the-counter markets that is shown to be empirically tractable. Based on high frequency data, we thus propose an evaluation of risk aversion and uncertainty inherent to the government bond markets in the euro area between 2007 and 2011. We particularly examine the impact of the European Central Bank Securities Markets Programme [SMP] implemented in May 2010 and re- activated in August 2011 to ease the pressure on the European sovereign bond markets. We show how this programme has killed market uncertainty but raised risk aversion for all countries except Greece in a risk-pooling mechanism: this can therefore weaken the impact of market interventions over the long-term.MES, systemic risk, tail correlation, balance sheet ratios, panel.

The role of elasticity in slab bending

International audiencePrevious studies showed that plate rheology exerts a dominant control on the shape and velocity of subducting plates. Here, we perform a systematic investigation of the role of elasticity in slab bending, using fully dynamic 2-D models where an elastic, viscoelastic, or viscoelastoplastic plate subducts freely into a purely viscous mantle. We derive a scaling relationship between the bending radius of viscoelastic slabs and the Deborah number, De, which is the ratio of Maxwell time over deformation time. We show that De controls the ratio of elastically stored energy over viscously dissipated energy and find that at De>10-2, substantially less energy is required to bend a viscoelastic slab to the same shape as a purely viscous slab with the same intrinsic viscosity. Elastically stored energy at higher De favors retreating modes of subduction via unbending, while trench advance only occurs for some cases with De 1, where most zones have low De 0.1. Slabs with De<10-2 either have very low viscosities or they may be yielding, in which case our De estimates may be underestimated by up to an order of magnitude, potentially pointing towards a significant role of elasticity in ∼60% of the subduction zones. In support of such a role of elasticity in subduction, we find that increasing De correlates with increasing proportion of larger seismic events in both instrumental and historic catalogues

MIMAC: MIcro-tpc MAtrix of Chambers for dark matter directional detection

Directional detection of non-baryonic Dark Matter is a promising search strategy for discriminating WIMP events from neutrons, the ultimate background for dark matter direct detection. This strategy requires both a precise measurement of the energy down to a few keV and 3D reconstruction of tracks down to a few mm. The MIMAC (MIcro-tpc MAtrix of Chambers) collaboration has developed in the last years an original prototype detector based on the direct coupling of large pixelized micromegas with a special developed fast self-triggered electronics showing the feasibility of a new generation of directional detectors. The first bi-chamber prototype has been installed at Modane, underground laboratory in June 2012. The first undergournd background events, the gain stability and calibration are shown. The first spectrum of nuclear recoils showing 3D tracks coming from the radon progeny is presented.Comment: Proceedings of the 4th International Conference on Directional Dark Matter Detection CYGNUS2013, held in Toyoma (Japan), June 201

MIMAC : A micro-tpc matrix for directional detection of dark matter

Directional detection of non-baryonic Dark Matter is a promising search strategy for discriminating WIMP events from background. However, this strategy requires both a precise measurement of the energy down to a few keV and 3D reconstruction of tracks down to a few mm. To achieve this goal, the MIMAC project has been developed. It is based on a gaseous micro-TPC matrix, filled with CF4 and CHF3. The first results on low energy nuclear recoils (H, F) obtained with a low mono-energetic neutron field are presented. The discovery potential of this search strategy is discussed and illustrated by a realistic case accessible to MIMAC.Comment: 6 pages, Proc. of the fifth international symposium on large TPCs for low energy rare event detection, Paris, France, Dec. 2010. To appear in Journal of Physic

The seismic signature of Upper‐Mantle Plumes: application to the Northern East African Rift

Several seismic and numerical studies proposed that below, some hotspots upper‐mantle plumelets rise from a thermal boundary layer below 660 km depth, fed by a deeper plume source. We recently found tomographic evidence of multiple upper‐mantle upwellings, spaced by several 100 km, rising through the transition zone below the northern East African Rift. To better test this interpretation, we run 3‐D numerical simulations of mantle convection for Newtonian and non‐Newtonian rheologies, for both thermal instabilities rising from a lower boundary layer, and the destabilization of a thermal anomaly placed at the base of the box (700–800 km depth). The thermal structures are converted to seismic velocities using a thermodynamic approach. Resolution tests are then conducted for the same P and S data distribution and inversion parameters as our traveltime tomography. The Rayleigh Taylor models predict simultaneous plumelets in different stages of evolution rising from a hot layer located below the transition zone, resulting in seismic structure that looks more complex than the simple vertical cylinders that are often anticipated. From the wide selection of models tested, we find that the destabilization of a 200 °C, 100 km thick thermal anomaly with a non‐Newtonian rheology, most closely matches the magnitude and the spatial and temporal distribution of the anomalies below the rift. Finally, we find that for reasonable upper‐mantle viscosities, the synthetic plume structures are similar in scale and shape to the actual low‐velocity anomalies, providing further support for the existence of upper‐mantle plumelets below the northern East African Rift

Micromegas detector developments for MIMAC

The aim of the MIMAC project is to detect non-baryonic Dark Matter with a directional TPC. The recent Micromegas efforts towards building a large size detector will be described, in particular the characterization measurements of a prototype detector of 10 $\times$ 10 cm$^2$ with a 2 dimensional readout plane. Track reconstruction with alpha particles will be shown.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures Proceedings of the 3rd International conference on Directional Detection of Dark Matter (CYGNUS 2011), Aussois, France, 8-10 June 2011; corrections on author affiliation