The long memory model of political support: some further results

This paper extends the results of Byers, Davidson and Peel (1997) on long memory in support for the Conservative and Labour Parties in the UK using longer samples and additional poll series. It finds continuing support for the ARFIMA(0,d,0) model though with somewhat smaller values of the long memory parameter. We find that the move to telephone polling in the mid-1990s has no apparent effect on the estimated value of d for either party. Finally, we find that we cannot reject the hypotheses that the parties share a common long memory parameter which we estimate at around 0.65.

Language identification: a neural network approach

Series : OASIcs - Open access series in informatics, ISSN 2190-6807, vol. 38One of the first tasks when building a Natural Language application is the detection of the used language in order to adapt the system to that language. This task has been addressed several times. Nevertheless most of these attempts were performed a long time ago when the amount of computer data and the computational power were limited. In this article we analyze and explain the use of a neural network for language identification, where features can be extracted automatically, and therefore, easy to adapt to new languages. In our experiments we got some surprises, namely with the two Chinese variants, whose forced us for some language-dependent tweaking of the neural network. At the end, the network had a precision of 95%, only failing for the Portuguese language.(undefined

Visualisation Tools for Multi-Perspective, Cross-Sector, Long-Term Infrastructure Performance Evaluation

Across different infrastructure sectors there are systems that help to monitor the current and near-future operation and performance of a particular system. Whilst Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) systems are critical to maintaining acceptable levels of functionality, they do not provide insights over the longer timescales across which strategic investment decisions play out. To understand how individual or multiple, interdependent, infrastructure sectors perform over longer timescales, capacity/demand modelling is required. However, the outputs of such models are often a complex high-dimensionality result-set, and this complexity is further compounded when crosssector evaluation is required. To maximise utility of such models, tools are required that can process and present key outputs. In this paper we describe the development of prototype tools for infrastructure performance evaluation in relation to different strategic decisions and the complex outputs generated from capacity and demand models of five infrastructure sectors (energy, water, waste water, solid waste, transport) investigated within the UK Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC). By constructing tools that expose various dimensions of the model outputs, a user is able to take greater control over the knowledge discovery process

Study of advanced fuel system concepts for commercial aircraft and engines

The impact on a commercial transport aircraft of using fuels which have relaxed property limits relative to current commercial jet fuel was assessed. The methodology of the study is outlined, fuel properties are discussed, and the effect of the relaxation of fuel properties analyzed. Advanced fuel system component designs that permit the satisfactory use of fuel with the candidate relaxed properties in the subject aircraft are described. The two fuel properties considered in detail are freezing point and thermal stability. Three candidate fuel system concepts were selected and evaluated in terms of performance, cost, weight, safety, and maintainability. A fuel system that incorporates insulation and electrical heating elements on fuel tank lower surfaces was found to be most cost effective for the long term

Site selective reading of epigenetic markers by a dual-mode synthetic receptor array.

Variably functionalized self-folding deep cavitands form an arrayed, fluorescent indicator displacement assay system for the detection of post-translationally modified (PTM) histone peptides. The hosts bind trimethyllysine (KMe3) groups, and use secondary upper rim interactions to provide more sensitive discrimination between targets with identical KMe3 binding handles. The sensor array uses multiple different recognition modes to distinguish between miniscule differences in target, such as identical lysine modifications at different sites of histone peptides. In addition, the sensor is affected by global changes in structure, so it is capable of discriminating between identical PTMs, at identical positions on amino acid fragments that vary only in peptide backbone length, and can be applied to detect non-methylation modifications such as acetylation and phosphorylations located multiple residues away from the targeted binding site. The synergistic application of multiple variables allows dual-mode deep cavitands to approach levels of recognition selectivity usually only seen with antibodies

Noether symmetries, energy-momentum tensors and conformal invariance in classical field theory

In the framework of classical field theory, we first review the Noether theory of symmetries, with simple rederivations of its essential results, with special emphasis given to the Noether identities for gauge theories. Will this baggage on board, we next discuss in detail, for Poincar\'e invariant theories in flat spacetime, the differences between the Belinfante energy-momentum tensor and a family of Hilbert energy-momentum tensors. All these tensors coincide on shell but they split their duties in the following sense: Belinfante's tensor is the one to use in order to obtain the generators of Poincar\'e symmetries and it is a basic ingredient of the generators of other eventual spacetime symmetries which may happen to exist. Instead, Hilbert tensors are the means to test whether a theory contains other spacetime symmetries beyond Poincar\'e. We discuss at length the case of scale and conformal symmetry, of which we give some examples. We show, for Poincar\'e invariant Lagrangians, that the realization of scale invariance selects a unique Hilbert tensor which allows for an easy test as to whether conformal invariance is also realized. Finally we make some basic remarks on metric generally covariant theories and classical field theory in a fixed curved bakground.Comment: 31 pa

Evidence for a superfluid density in t--J ladders

Applying three independent techniques, we give numerical evidence for a finite superfluid density in isotropic hole-doped t--J ladders: We show the existence of anomalous flux quantization, emphasising the contrasting behaviour to that found in the `Luttinger liquid' regime stabilised at low electron densities; We consider the nature of the low-lying excitation modes, finding the 1-D analog of the superconducting state; And using a density matrix renormalization group approach, we find long range pairing correlations and exponentially decaying spin-spin correlations.Comment: 4 pages, revtex, postscript figs included, submitted to PR

Sand in the wheels, or oiling the wheels, of international finance? : New Labour's appeal to a 'new Bretton Woods'

Tony Blair’s political instinct typically is to associate himself only with the future. As such, his explicit appeal to ‘the past’ in his references to New Labour’s desire to establish a “new Bretton Woods” is sufficient in itself to arouse some degree of analytical curiosity (see Blair 1998a). The fact that this appeal was made specifically in relation to Bretton Woods is even more interesting. The resonant image of the international economic context established by the original Bretton Woods agreements invokes a style and content of policy-making which Tony Blair typically dismisses as neither economically nor politically consistent with his preferred vision of the future (see Blair 2000c, 2001b)

Water use and water availability constraints to decarbonised electricity systems

Analysis of numerous low carbon electricity strategies have been shown to have very divergent water requirements, normally needed for cooling of thermoelectric power stations. Our regional river-basin scale analysis of water use for future UK electricity strategies shows that, whilst in the majority of cases freshwater use is expected to decline, pathways with high levels of carbon capture and storage (CCS) will result in significantly elevated and concentrated water demands in a few key river basins. Furthermore, these growing demands are compared to both current water availability, and our expected regional water availability under the impacts of climate change. We identify key freshwater constraints to electricity strategies with high levels of CCS and show how these risks may be mitigated with higher levels of hybrid cooling and alternative cooling water sources