Evolution or revolution? a study of price and wage volatility in England, 1200-1900

Using annual data 1209-1914, this paper examines whether there are structural breaks in the movements of prices and wages that correspond to the major ‘revolutions’ identified in historical narratives. Econometric modelling of trend and volatility in prices and wages confirms the importance of the Commercial Revolution and the Glorious Revolution, but suggests that the Industrial Revolution may be better described in evolutionary terms. The evidence also points to a late medieval revolution at the time of the Good Parliament, shortly after the Black Death and just before the Peasant’s Revolt. This supports Britnell and Campbell’s commercialisation hypothesis - that the institutional pre-conditions for the Industrial Revolution began to develop at a very early date.Economic evolution; Economic revolution; Historical economics;

Revolutionary change and structural breaks: A time series analysis of wages and commodity prices in Britain 1264-1913

In this paper we empirically test the hypothesis that economic revolutions are associated with structural breaks in historical economic data. A simple test for structural breaks in economic time series is applied to British wage and price data from the medieval to the modern period. Evidence for structural change is found in nearly half of the series studied -- suggesting that structural breaks are an intrinsic feature of such historic data. Structural changes are most closely linked to the Commercial Revolution followed by the Agricultural Revolution and the Industrial Revolution, with changes linked to an underlying process of price stabilisation as measured by a decrease in the long-term level of volatility.historical economics; economic revolutions; structural breaks; price stabilisation

The theory of international business: the role of economic models

This paper reviews the scope for economic modelling in international business studies. It argues for multi-level theory based on classic internalisation theory. It present a systems approach that encompasses both firm-level and industry-level analysis

How long has NICE taken to produce Technology Appraisal guidance? A retrospective study to estimate predictors of time to guidance.

OBJECTIVES: To assess how long the UK's National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence's (NICE) Technology Appraisal Programme has taken to produce guidance and to determine independent predictors of time to guidance. DESIGN: Retrospective time to event (survival) analysis. SETTING: Technology Appraisal guidance produced by NICE. DATASOURCE: All appraisals referred to NICE by February 2010 were included, except those referred prior to 2001 and a number that were suspended. OUTCOME MEASURE: Duration from the start of an appraisal (when the scope document was released) until publication of guidance. RESULTS: Single Technology Appraisals (STAs) were published significantly faster than Multiple Technology Appraisals (MTAs) with median durations of 48.0 (IQR; 44.3-75.4) and 74.0 (IQR; 60.9-114.0) weeks, respectively (p <0.0001). Median time to publication exceeded published process timelines, even after adjusting for appeals. Results from the modelling suggest that STAs published guidance significantly faster than MTAs after adjusting for other covariates (by 36.2 weeks (95% CI -46.05 to -26.42 weeks)) and that appeals against provisional guidance significantly increased the time to publication (by 42.83 weeks (95% CI 35.50 to 50.17 weeks)). There was no evidence that STAs of cancer-related technologies took longer to complete compared with STAs of other technologies after adjusting for potentially confounding variables and only weak evidence suggesting that the time to produce guidance is increasing each year (by 1.40 weeks (95% CI -0.35 to 2.94 weeks)). CONCLUSIONS: The results from this study suggest that the STA process has resulted in significantly faster guidance compared with the MTA process irrespective of the topic, but that these gains are lost if appeals are made against provisional guidance. While NICE processes continue to evolve over time, a trade-off might be that decisions take longer but at present there is no evidence of a significant increase in duration

Effect of turbulence on electron cyclotron current drive and heating in ITER

Non-linear local electromagnetic gyrokinetic turbulence simulations of the ITER standard scenario H-mode are presented for the q=3/2 and q=2 surfaces. The turbulent transport is examined in regions of velocity space characteristic of electrons heated by electron cyclotron waves. Electromagnetic fluctuations and sub-dominant micro-tearing modes are found to contribute significantly to the transport of the accelerated electrons, even though they have only a small impact on the transport of the bulk species. The particle diffusivity for resonant passing electrons is found to be less than 0.15 m^2/s, and their heat conductivity is found to be less than 2 m^2/s. Implications for the broadening of the current drive and energy deposition in ITER are discussed.Comment: Letter, 5 pages, 5 figures, for submission to Nuclear Fusio

Knot concordance and Heegaard Floer homology invariants in branched covers

By studying the Heegaard Floer homology of the preimage of a knot K in S^3 inside its double branched cover, we develop simple obstructions to K having finite order in the classical smooth concordance group. As an application, we prove that all 2-bridge knots of crossing number at most 12 for which the smooth concordance order was previously unknown have infinite smooth concordance order.Comment: Expanded references; 25 pages, 5 figure

Angular momentum transport modeling: achievements of a gyrokinetic quasi-linear approach

QuaLiKiz, a model based on a local gyrokinetic eigenvalue solver is expanded to include momentum flux modeling in addition to heat and particle fluxes. Essential for accurate momentum flux predictions, the parallel asymmetrization of the eigenfunctions is successfully recovered by an analytical fluid model. This is tested against self-consistent gyrokinetic calculations and allows for a correct prediction of the ExB shear impact on the saturated potential amplitude by means of a mixing length rule. Hence, the effect of the ExB shear is recovered on all the transport channels including the induced residual stress. Including these additions, QuaLiKiz remains ~10 000 faster than non-linear gyrokinetic codes allowing for comparisons with experiments without resorting to high performance computing. The example is given of momentum pinch calculations in NBI modulation experiments

Charge dependence of neoclassical and turbulent transport of light impurities on MAST

Carbon and nitrogen impurity transport coefficients are determined from gas puff experiments carried out during repeat L-mode discharges on the Mega-Amp Spherical Tokamak (MAST) and compared against a previous analysis of helium impurity transport on MAST. The impurity density profiles are measured on the low-field side of the plasma, therefore this paper focuses on light impurities where the impact of poloidal asymmetries on impurity transport is predicted to be negligible. A weak screening of carbon and nitrogen is found in the plasma core, whereas the helium density profile is peaked over the entire plasma radius.Comment: 17 pages, 7 figure

Topological quantum D-branes and wild embeddings from exotic smooth R^4

This is the next step of uncovering the relation between string theory and exotic smooth R^4. Exotic smoothness of R^4 is correlated with D6 brane charges in IIA string theory. We construct wild embeddings of spheres and relate them to a class of topological quantum Dp-branes as well to KK theory. These branes emerge when there are non-trivial NS-NS H-fluxes where the topological classes are determined by wild embeddings S^2 -> S^3. Then wild embeddings of higher dimensional $p$-complexes into S^n correspond to Dp-branes. These wild embeddings as constructed by using gropes are basic objects to understand exotic smoothness as well Casson handles. Next we build C*-algebras corresponding to the embeddings. Finally we consider topological quantum D-branes as those which emerge from wild embeddings in question. We construct an action for these quantum D-branes and show that the classical limit agrees with the Born-Infeld action such that flat branes = usual embeddings.Comment: 18 pages, 1 figur