Modeling Long- and Short-Term Temporal Patterns with Deep Neural Networks

Multivariate time series forecasting is an important machine learning problem across many domains, including predictions of solar plant energy output, electricity consumption, and traffic jam situation. Temporal data arise in these real-world applications often involves a mixture of long-term and short-term patterns, for which traditional approaches such as Autoregressive models and Gaussian Process may fail. In this paper, we proposed a novel deep learning framework, namely Long- and Short-term Time-series network (LSTNet), to address this open challenge. LSTNet uses the Convolution Neural Network (CNN) and the Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to extract short-term local dependency patterns among variables and to discover long-term patterns for time series trends. Furthermore, we leverage traditional autoregressive model to tackle the scale insensitive problem of the neural network model. In our evaluation on real-world data with complex mixtures of repetitive patterns, LSTNet achieved significant performance improvements over that of several state-of-the-art baseline methods. All the data and experiment codes are available online.Comment: Accepted by SIGIR 201

Tiling groupoids and Bratteli diagrams

Let T be an aperiodic and repetitive tiling of R^d with finite local complexity. Let O be its tiling space with canonical transversal X. The tiling equivalence relation R_X is the set of pairs of tilings in X which are translates of each others, with a certain (etale) topology. In this paper R_X is reconstructed as a generalized "tail equivalence" on a Bratteli diagram, with its standard AF-relation as a subequivalence relation. Using a generalization of the Anderson-Putnam complex, O is identified with the inverse limit of a sequence of finite CW-complexes. A Bratteli diagram B is built from this sequence, and its set of infinite paths dB is homeomorphic to X. The diagram B is endowed with a horizontal structure: additional edges that encode the adjacencies of patches in T. This allows to define an etale equivalence relation R_B on dB which is homeomorphic to R_X, and contains the AF-relation of "tail equivalence".Comment: 34 pages, 4 figure

The effects on public health of climate change adaptation responses: a systematic review of evidence from low- and middle-income countries.

Climate change adaptation responses are being developed and delivered in many parts of the world in the absence of detailed knowledge of their effects on public health. Here we present the results of a systematic review of peer-reviewed literature reporting the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The review used the 'Global Adaptation Mapping Initiative' database (comprising 1682 publications related to climate change adaptation responses) that was constructed through systematic literature searches in Scopus, Web of Science and Google Scholar (2013-2020). For this study, further screening was performed to identify studies from LMICs reporting the effects on human health of climate change adaptation responses. Studies were categorised by study design and data were extracted on geographic region, population under investigation, type of adaptation response and reported health effects. The review identified 99 studies (1117 reported outcomes), reporting evidence from 66 LMICs. Only two studies were ex ante formal evaluations of climate change adaptation responses. Papers reported adaptation responses related to flooding, rainfall, drought and extreme heat, predominantly through behaviour change, and infrastructural and technological improvements. Reported (direct and intermediate) health outcomes included reduction in infectious disease incidence, improved access to water/sanitation and improved food security. All-cause mortality was rarely reported, and no papers were identified reporting on maternal and child health. Reported maladaptations were predominantly related to widening of inequalities and unforeseen co-harms. Reporting and publication-bias seems likely with only 3.5% of all 1117 health outcomes reported to be negative. Our review identified some evidence that climate change adaptation responses may have benefits for human health but the overall paucity of evidence is concerning and represents a major missed opportunity for learning. There is an urgent need for greater focus on the funding, design, evaluation and standardised reporting of the effects on health of climate change adaptation responses to enable evidence-based policy action

Sex- and age-related differences in the management and outcomes of chronic heart failure: an analysis of patients from the ESC HFA EORP Heart Failure Long-Term Registry

Aims: This study aimed to assess age- and sex-related differences in management and 1-year risk for all-cause mortality and hospitalization in chronic heart failure (HF) patients. Methods and results: Of 16 354 patients included in the European Society of Cardiology Heart Failure Long-Term Registry, 9428 chronic HF patients were analysed [median age: 66 years; 28.5% women; mean left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) 37%]. Rates of use of guideline-directed medical therapy (GDMT) were high (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors/angiotensin receptor blockers, beta-blockers and mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists: 85.7%, 88.7% and 58.8%, respectively). Crude GDMT utilization rates were lower in women than in men (all differences: P\ua0 64 0.001), and GDMT use became lower with ageing in both sexes, at baseline and at 1-year follow-up. Sex was not an independent predictor of GDMT prescription; however, age >75 years was a significant predictor of GDMT underutilization. Rates of all-cause mortality were lower in women than in men (7.1% vs. 8.7%; P\ua0=\ua00.015), as were rates of all-cause hospitalization (21.9% vs. 27.3%; P\ua075 years. Conclusions: There was a decline in GDMT use with advanced age in both sexes. Sex was not an independent predictor of GDMT or adverse outcomes. However, age >75 years independently predicted lower GDMT use and higher all-cause mortality in patients with LVEF 6445%

A global assessment of actors and their roles in climate change adaptation

An assessment of the global progress in climate change adaptation is urgently needed. Despite a rising awareness that adaptation should involve diverse societal actors and a shared sense of responsibility, little is known about the types of actors, such as state and non-state, and their roles in different types of adaptation responses as well as in different regions. Based on a large n-structured analysis of case studies, we show that, although individuals or households are the most prominent actors implementing adaptation, they are the least involved in institutional responses, particularly in the global south. Governments are most often involved in planning and civil society in coordinating responses. Adaptation of individuals or households is documented especially in rural areas, and governments in urban areas. Overall, understanding of institutional, multi-actor and transformational adaptation is still limited. These findings contribute to debates around ‘social contracts’ for adaptation, that is, an agreement on the distribution of roles and responsibilities, and inform future adaptation governance

Holocene snail shell isotopic record of millennial-scale hydrological conditions in western Mediterranean: data from Bauma del Serrat del Pont (NE Iberian Peninsula)

Land snail shells are a common component in Mediterranean Holocene archaeological deposits, providing the opportunity to explore their potential as source of information concerning human behaviour and palaeoclimatic conditions. Many well-preserved shells of the caenogastropod Pomatias elegans were recovered along the Holocene succession of Baumadel Serrat del Pont (BSP), in the Iberian Peninsula. Their oxygen (d18Os) and carbon (d13Cs) isotopic compositions were analysed and compared with that of modern shells of the samespecies collected intwo distinct areasnear the archaeological site.Modernshells fromSiteA(shady) and B (sunny) show distinctly different oxygen isotopic ratios possibly due to the effect of microenvironmental conditions (e.g. temperature and relative humidity). Carbon isotopes, by contrast, reveal similar values. Isotope mass balance suggests a prevalent contribution of vegetation (w70%), integrated with foreign carbonates (w30%) to d13Cs of modern snails. Earlyelate Holocene shells (w9e2.5 cal ka BP) have lower d18Os compared with modern counterparts, which is consistent with prevailing wetter conditions compared with present day. The d13Cs reveals distinct hydrological regimes, wet and dry conditions, from early to late Holocene respectively. In general, shell isotopic records from western and central Mediterranean regions suggest wetter conditions during the middle Holocene, with a possible reduction in humidity from w4 cal ka BP. The d18Os indicates a possible latitudinal difference in hydrological balance between Mediterranean and Atlantic Europe as inferred by previous studies of regional palaeoclimatic records. Carbon isotopes, by contrast, do not provide a clear climatic picture, probably due to the effect of distinct vegetation structure and composition. Comparisons with other environmental archives reinforce the concept of regional shell oxygen isotopic response to millennial-scale changes in hydrological condition over the western and central Mediterranean during the late Quaternary

Towards sustainable vegetable production around agro-pastoral dams in Northern Benin : Current situation, challenges and research avenues for sustainable production and integrated dam management

Background: Rehabilitation and optimized utilization of agro-pastoral dams (APDs), especially for vegetable production, has been recently promoted to boost agricultural production and ensure food security in Benin. However, little information was available on APDs' agricultural potentials and knowledge of how APDs' ecosystem services were exploited by the various stakeholders, and how each stakeholder group contributed to the degradation of the common good was scanty. This study explored three APDs in northern Benin to diagnose vegetable production systems and assess producer's perception of APD degradation. Results: The results indicated that vegetable production around the APDs was a part-time activity dominated by women, and characterized by low external input use and a diversity of African indigenous vegetables. There was a strong gender difference in cropping systems, farming practices and land access, and a significant agreement on key production bottlenecks among producers. The main constraints included conflicts with livestock herders generated by the recurrent destruction of crops and seedlings by livestock, lack of equipment, pest and disease management challenges, access to water and inputs. Water erosion and runoff, livestock, vegetable production and food crops and cotton farming around the dams were respectively perceived as factors that contribute to APDs' siltation and affect water quality. In comparison with water erosion and runoff, experienced producers and those with higher vegetable species richness were more likely to rank farming as first source of threat to APDs. Urbanization and market access were drivers of intensification of vegetable production around APDs. Conclusions: Our findings illustrate how information on cropping and farming practices, and producers' perception can provide insights and research and development avenues for integrated dam management and sustainable production for improved food security and livelihoods. We discussed the implications of our findings and suggested a number of strategic decisions and research avenues for integrated dam management and sustainable vegetable production around APDs. Avenues for future research and development actions include: (1) a tailored and gender-specific training programme on sustainable production practices targeted to women; (2) developing scenarios of the desired future state for APDs by all stakeholders to work towards through collaborative actions; and (3) assessing the perception of other users on APD siltation and water quality.</p