Wavelet-based multiresolution analysis of Wivenhoe Dam water temperatures

Water temperature measurements from Wivenhoe Dam offer a unique opportunity for studying fluctuations of temperatures in a subtropical dam as a function of time and depth. Cursory examination of the data indicate a complicated structure across both time and depth. We propose simplifying the task of describing these data by breaking the time series at each depth into physically meaningful components that individually capture daily, subannual, and annual (DSA) variations. Precise definitions for each component are formulated in terms of a wavelet-based multiresolution analysis. The DSA components are approximately pairwise uncorrelated within a given depth and between different depths. They also satisfy an additive property in that their sum is exactly equal to the original time series. Each component is based upon a set of coefficients that decomposes the sample variance of each time series exactly across time and that can be used to study both time-varying variances of water temperature at each depth and time-varying correlations between temperatures at different depths. Each DSA component is amenable for studying a certain aspect of the relationship between the series at different depths. The daily component in general is weakly correlated between depths, including those that are adjacent to one another. The subannual component quantifies seasonal effects and in particular isolates phenomena associated with the thermocline, thus simplifying its study across time. The annual component can be used for a trend analysis. The descriptive analysis provided by the DSA decomposition is a useful precursor to a more formal statistical analysis

The relative importance of water temperature and residence time in predicting cyanobacteria abundance in regulated rivers

Despite a growing awareness of the problems associated with cyanobacterial blooms in rivers, and particularly in regulated rivers, the drivers of bloom formation and abundance in rivers are not well understood. We developed a Bayesian hierarchical model to assess the relative importance of predictors of summer cyanobacteria abundance, and to test whether the relative importance of each predictor varies by site, using monitoring data from 16 sites in the four major rivers of South Korea. The results suggested that temperature and residence time, but not nutrient levels, are important predictors of summer cyanobacteria abundance in rivers. Although the two predictors were of similar significance across the sites, the residence time was marginally better in accounting for the variation in cyanobacteria abundance. The model with spatial hierarchy demonstrated that temperature played a consistently significant role at all sites, and showed no effect from site-specific factors. In contrast, the importance of residence time varied significantly from site to site. This variation was shown to depend on the trophic state, indicated by the chlorophyll-a and total phosphorus levels. Our results also suggested that the magnitude of weir inflow is a key factor determining the cyanobacteria abundance under baseline conditions