Understanding high-end climate change: from impacts to co-creating integrated and transformative solutions

Editorial. The world is not yet on track to meet the Paris Agreement climate change target of keeping global average temperature rise within 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Current greenhouse gas emission trends point to much more substantial warming, with possible increases of 4 °C or more in the long-term. This Special Issue describes findings from the IMPRESSIONS project which advanced the understanding of impacts of high-end climate change (defined as global mean temperatures > 2 °C above pre-industrial levels) and potential solutions for reducing these impacts through adaptation, mitigation and transformative actions. With stakeholders, the project developed a set of integrated climate and socio-economic scenarios and applied these to multi-sectoral impact models in five case studies: Hungary, Scotland, Iberia, Europe as a whole and Central Asia. This showed that benefits in some regions and sectors, such as increasing forest productivity in northern Europe, are offset by detrimental effects in others, such as severe water scarcity, heat stress and loss of productivity in southern Europe and parts of central and eastern Europe, and widespread flood damage. Adaptation and mitigation pathways were generated with stakeholders to address these impacts and identify integrated and transformative solutions. These highlighted the importance of shifting to sustainable lifestyles, good governance for sustainability and climate resilience, and new forms of integrated and sustainable resource management. The stakeholder-led approach of IMPRESSIONS ensured that the research was driven by the priorities of decision-makers, enabling significant co-learning and the identification of robust, innovative and effective solutions for addressing high-end climate change

Integrierte Nachhaltigkeitsbewertung

Viele Probleme unserer Gesellschaft lassen sich mit herkömmlichen Methoden nicht in den Griff bekommen. Der Prozess der Integrierten Nachhaltigkeitsbewertung hilft, einen grundlegenden gesellschaftlichen Übergang zu Nachhaltigkeit einzuleiten und damit zukünftige Herausforderungen aktiv anzunehmen

Le projet EACH-FOR

La plupart des études de cas présentées dans ce dossier ont été réalisées dans le cadre du projet EACH-FOR (Environmental Change and Forced Migration Scenarios, www.each-for.eu). Ce projet a été financé par la Commission européenne entre 2007 et 2009 et a été réalisé par sept instituts de recherche européens. Le projet visait à documenter, de manière empirique, la façon dont les dégradations de l’environnement pouvaient influer sur les comportements migratoires dans différents contextes. Deux..

Ökologische Konzepte in der europäischen Politik

Die Umweltbranche boomt und ökologische Innovationen sind in aller Munde. Doch finden diese theoretischen Konzepte und innovativen Technologien wirklich Eingang in die politische Praxis? Und wie können diese Ansatzpunkte zur politischen Ausgestaltung einer nachhaltigen Entwicklung beitragen

Defining transformative climate science to address high-end climate change

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552High-end climate change requires transformative solutions, as conventional strategies and solutions will not be enough if major disruptions in social-ecological systems are to be avoided. However, conventional climate assessment approaches and methods show many limitations if they are to provide robust knowledge and support to the implementation of such solutions in practice. To this end, we define transformative climate science as the open-ended process of producing, structuring, and applying solutions-oriented knowledge to fast-link integrated adaptation and mitigation strategies to sustainable development. In particular, based on our experiences within regional cases in Central Asia, Europe, Iberia, Scotland, and Hungary, we have selected 12 dimensions that scientists and practitioners can use as a checklist to design transformative-oriented climate assessments. While it is possible to talk both about transformative adaptation and transformative mitigation, in this paper, we make the case that societal transformation does not depend on mitigation or adaptation policies and actions, mostly because they are related to sustainability innovations, which are endogenous developments derived from deliberate social learning

Advancing the use of scenarios to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 degree target

With a range of potential pathways to a sustainable future compatible with the Paris Agreement 1.5 °C target, scenario analysis has emerged as a key tool in studies of climate change mitigation and adaptation. A wide range of alternative scenarios have been created, and core amongst these are five socio-economic scenarios (Shared Socio-economic Pathways or SSPs) and four emission scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways or RCPs). Whilst mitigation scenarios (the Shared Policy Assumptions, or SPAs) have been developed for each SSP-RCP combination, describing the actions necessary to match the climate pathway of the RCP, there has not yet been a systematic approach to address whether and how these actions can be enabled in practice. We present a novel and transferable framework to understand society’s capacity to achieve the 1.5 °C target, based on four participatory case studies using the SSP-RCP scenarios. The methodology builds on a framework for categorising different types of societal capitals and capacities and assessing their impact on the potential to implement different types of mitigation actions. All four case studies show that SSP1 has the highest potential to reach the target. Although environmental awareness is high in both SSP1 and SSP4, continued social inequalities in SSP4 restrict society’s capacity to transform, despite economic growth. In the two least environmentally-aware SSPs, SSP3 and SSP5, the transformation potential is low, but the view on capitals and capacities nonetheless helps identify opportunities for actors to develop and implement mitigation actions. The study highlights that techno-economic assessments of climate strategies need to be complemented by consideration of the critical role played by social and human capital, and by societal capacity to mobilise and create these capitals despite different socio-economic trends. These capitals and capacities are essential to enable the rapid innovation, behavioural change and international co-ordination needed to achieve the 1.5 °C target

Positive tipping points in a rapidly warming world

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu MdM-2015-0552The challenge of meeting the UNFCCC CoP21 goal of keeping global warming 'well below 2 °C and to pursue efforts towards 1.5 °C' ('the 2-1.5 °C target') calls for research efforts to better understand the opportunities and constraints for fundamental transformations in global systems dynamics which currently drive the unsustainable and inequitable use of the Earth's resources. To this end, this research reviews and introduces the notion of positive tipping points as emergent properties of systems-including both human capacities and structural conditions - which would allow the fast deployment of evolutionary-like transformative solutions to successfully tackle the present socio-climate quandary. Our research provides a simple procedural synthesis to help identify and coordinate the required agents' capacities to implement transformative solutions aligned with such climate goal in different contexts. Our research shows how to identify the required capacities, conditions and potential policy interventions which could eventually lead to the emergence of positive tipping points in various social-ecological systems to address the 2-1.5 °C policy target. Our insights are based on the participatory downscaling of global Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) to Europe, the formulation of pathways of solutions within these scenarios and the results from an agent-based economic modelling

Clinical associations and prognostic value of MRI-visible perivascular spaces in patients with ischemic stroke or TIA: a pooled analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Visible perivascular spaces are an MRI marker of cerebral small vessel disease and might predict future stroke. However, results from existing studies vary. We aimed to clarify this through a large collaborative multicenter analysis. METHODS: We pooled individual patient data from a consortium of prospective cohort studies. Participants had recent ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack (TIA), underwent baseline MRI, and were followed up for ischemic stroke and symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). Perivascular spaces in the basal ganglia (BGPVS) and perivascular spaces in the centrum semiovale (CSOPVS) were rated locally using a validated visual scale. We investigated clinical and radiologic associations cross-sectionally using multinomial logistic regression and prospective associations with ischemic stroke and ICH using Cox regression. RESULTS: We included 7,778 participants (mean age 70.6 years; 42.7% female) from 16 studies, followed up for a median of 1.44 years. Eighty ICH and 424 ischemic strokes occurred. BGPVS were associated with increasing age, hypertension, previous ischemic stroke, previous ICH, lacunes, cerebral microbleeds, and white matter hyperintensities. CSOPVS showed consistently weaker associations. Prospectively, after adjusting for potential confounders including cerebral microbleeds, increasing BGPVS burden was independently associated with future ischemic stroke (versus 0-10 BGPVS, 11-20 BGPVS: HR 1.19, 95% CI 0.93-1.53; 21+ BGPVS: HR 1.50, 95% CI 1.10-2.06; = 0.040). Higher BGPVS burden was associated with increased ICH risk in univariable analysis, but not in adjusted analyses. CSOPVS were not significantly associated with either outcome. DISCUSSION: In patients with ischemic stroke or TIA, increasing BGPVS burden is associated with more severe cerebral small vessel disease and higher ischemic stroke risk. Neither BGPVS nor CSOPVS were independently associated with future ICH