The impact of West Nile virus on the abundance of selected North American birds

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The emergence of West Nile virus (WNV) in North America has been associated with high mortality in the native avifauna and has raised concerns about the long-term impact of WNV on bird populations. Here, we present results from a longitudinal analysis of annual counts of six bird species, using North American Breeding Bird Survey data from ten states (1994 to 2010). We fit overdispersed Poisson models to annual counts. Counts from successive years were linked by an autoregressive process that depended on WNV transmission intensity (annual West Nile neuroinvasive disease reports) and was adjusted by El Niño Southern Oscillation events. These models were fit using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Model fit was mostly excellent, especially for American Crows, for which our models explained between 26% and 81% of the observed variance. The impact of WNV on bird populations was quantitatively evaluated by contrasting hypothetical count trajectories (omission of WNV) with observed counts. Populations of American crows were most consistently affected with a substantial cumulative impact in six of ten states. The largest negative impact, almost 60%, was found in Illinois. A regionally substantial decline was also seen for American Robins and House Sparrows, while the other species appeared unaffected.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Our results confirm findings from previous studies that single out American Crows as the species most vulnerable to WNV infection. We discuss strengths and limitations of this and other methods for quantifying the impact of WNV on bird populations.</p

Increase in West Nile Neuroinvasive Disease after Hurricane Katrina

After Hurricane Katrina, the number of reported cases of West Nile neuroinvasive disease (WNND) sharply increased in the hurricane-affected regions of Louisiana and Mississippi. In 2006, a >2-fold increase in WNND incidence was observed in the hurricane-affected areas than in previous years

Entomologic and Serologic Evidence of Zoonotic Transmission of Babesia microti, Eastern Switzerland

We evaluated human risk for infection with Babesia microti at a site in eastern Switzerland where several B. microti–infected nymphal Ixodes ricinus ticks had been found. DNA from pooled nymphal ticks amplified by polymerase chain reaction was highly homologous to published B. microti sequences. More ticks carried babesial infection in the lower portion of the rectangular 0.7-ha grid than in the upper (11% vs. 0.8%). In addition, we measured seroprevalence of immunoglobulin (Ig) G antibodies against B. microti antigen in nearby residents. Serum from 1.5% of the 396 human residents of the region reacted to B. microti antigen (>1:64), as determined by indirect immunofluorescence assay (IgG). These observations constitute the first report demonstrating B. microti in a human-biting vector, associated with evidence of human exposure to this agent in a European site

Potential and Actual Terrestrial Rabies Exposures in People and Domestic Animals, Upstate South Carolina, 1994–2004: A Surveillance Study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Although there has been a reduction of rabies in pets and domestic animals during recent decades in the United States, rabies remains enzootic among bats and several species of terrestrial wildlife. Spillover transmission of wildlife rabies to domestic animals therefore remains a public health threat</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Retrospective analysis of surveillance data of reported animal incidents (bites, scratches, mucous membrane contacts) from South Carolina, 1995 to 2003, was performed to assess risk factors of potential rabies exposures among human and animal victims.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Dogs and cats contributed the majority (66.7% and 26.4%, respectively) of all reported incidents, with stray dogs and cats contributing 9.0% and 15.1 respectively. Current rabies vaccination status of dogs and cats (40.2% and 13.8%, respectively) were below World Health Organization recommended levels. Owned cats were half as likely to be vaccinated for rabies as dogs (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.48, 0.58). Animal victims were primarily exposed to wildlife (83.0%), of which 27.5% were rabid. Almost 90% of confirmed rabies exposures were due to wildlife. Skunks had the highest prevalence of rabies among species of exposure animals (63.2%). Among rabid domestic animals, stray cats were the most commonly reported (47.4%).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>While the majority of reported potential rabies exposures are associated with dog and cat incidents, most rabies exposures derive from rabid wildlife. Stray cats were most frequently rabid among domestic animals. Our results underscore the need for improvement of wildlife rabies control and the reduction of interactions of domestic animals, including cats, with wildlife.</p

Revised estimates of influenza-associated excess mortality, United States, 1995 through 2005

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Excess mortality due to seasonal influenza is thought to be substantial. However, influenza may often not be recognized as cause of death. Imputation methods are therefore required to assess the public health impact of influenza. The purpose of this study was to obtain estimates of monthly excess mortality due to influenza that are based on an epidemiologically meaningful model.</p> <p>Methods and Results</p> <p>U.S. monthly all-cause mortality, 1995 through 2005, was hierarchically modeled as Poisson variable with a mean that linearly depends both on seasonal covariates and on influenza-certified mortality. It also allowed for overdispersion to account for extra variation that is not captured by the Poisson error. The coefficient associated with influenza-certified mortality was interpreted as ratio of total influenza mortality to influenza-certified mortality. Separate models were fitted for four age categories (<18, 18–49, 50–64, 65+). Bayesian parameter estimation was performed using Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. For the eleven year study period, a total of 260,814 (95% CI: 201,011–290,556) deaths was attributed to influenza, corresponding to an annual average of 23,710, or 0.91% of all deaths.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Annual estimates for influenza mortality were highly variable from year to year, but they were systematically lower than previously published estimates. The excellent fit of our model with the data suggest validity of our estimates.</p

A Spatial Model of Mosquito Host-Seeking Behavior

Mosquito host-seeking behavior and heterogeneity in host distribution are important factors in predicting the transmission dynamics of mosquito-borne infections such as dengue fever, malaria, chikungunya, and West Nile virus. We develop and analyze a new mathematical model to describe the effect of spatial heterogeneity on the contact rate between mosquito vectors and hosts. The model includes odor plumes generated by spatially distributed hosts, wind velocity, and mosquito behavior based on both the prevailing wind and the odor plume. On a spatial scale of meters and a time scale of minutes, we compare the effectiveness of different plume-finding and plume-tracking strategies that mosquitoes could use to locate a host. The results show that two different models of chemotaxis are capable of producing comparable results given appropriate parameter choices and that host finding is optimized by a strategy of flying across the wind until the odor plume is intercepted. We also assess the impact of changing the level of host aggregation on mosquito host-finding success near the end of the host-seeking flight. When clusters of hosts are more tightly associated on smaller patches, the odor plume is narrower and the biting rate per host is decreased. For two host groups of unequal number but equal spatial density, the biting rate per host is lower in the group with more individuals, indicative of an attack abatement effect of host aggregation. We discuss how this approach could assist parameter choices in compartmental models that do not explicitly model the spatial arrangement of individuals and how the model could address larger spatial scales and other probability models for mosquito behavior, such as Lévy distributions

Does reservoir host mortality enhance transmission of West Nile virus?

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Since its 1999 emergence in New York City, West Nile virus (WNV) has become the most important and widespread cause of mosquito-transmitted disease in North America. Its sweeping spread from the Atlantic to the Pacific coast was accompanied by widespread mortality among wild birds, especially corvids. Only sporadic avian mortality had previously been associated with this infection in the Old World. Here, we examine the possibility that reservoir host mortality may intensify transmission, both by concentrating vector mosquitoes on remaining hosts and by preventing the accumulation of "herd immunity".</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Inspection of the Ross-Macdonald expression of the basic reproductive number (<it>R</it>₀) suggests that this quantity may increase with reservoir host mortality. Computer simulation confirms this finding and indicates that the level of virulence is positively associated with the numbers of infectious mosquitoes by the end of the epizootic. The presence of reservoir incompetent hosts in even moderate numbers largely eliminated the transmission-enhancing effect of host mortality. Local host die-off may prevent mosquitoes to "waste" infectious blood meals on immune host and may thus facilitate perpetuation and spread of transmission.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Under certain conditions, host mortality may enhance transmission of WNV and similarly maintained arboviruses and thus facilitate their emergence and spread. The validity of the assumptions upon which this argument is built need to be empirically examined.</p

Health care-associated rotavirus illness in pediatric inpatients in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland

A longitudinal study of health care-associated transmission of rotaviruses (RVs) in pediatric inpatients 0-48 months old in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland showed that almost one third of all cases occurred in patients 2 months old or younger. The effectiveness of vaccination against RV from 2 months of age onward remains to be evaluated

The proportion of mosquitoes finding a host as a function of host density.

<p>The simulation results are given by the solid markers with one standard deviation (UW = upwind, DW = downwind, CW = crosswind). The lines are linear fits to the data using the formula , where is a free parameter and is the length of a side of the square host patch divided by the length of a side of the simulation region. As increases, the hosts spread out (i.e., decrease in density) and the number of mosquitoes locating a host increases. The is labeled as a percentage.</p