Analyzing dynamic species abundance distributions using generalized linear mixed models

Understanding the mechanisms of ecological community dynamics and how they could be affected by environmental changes is important. Population dynamic models have well known ecological parameters that describe key characteristics of species such as the effect of environmental noise and demographic variance on the dynamics, the long-term growth rate, and strength of density regulation. These parameters are also central for detecting and understanding changes in communities of species; however, incorporating such vital parameters into models of community dynamics is challenging. In this paper, we demonstrate how generalized linear mixed models specified as intercept-only models with different random effects can be used to fit dynamic species abundance distributions. Each random effect has an ecologically meaningful interpretation either describing general and species-specific responses to environmental stochasticity in time or space, or variation in growth rate and carrying capacity among species. We use simulations to show that the accuracy of the estimation depends on the strength of density regulation in discrete population dynamics. The estimation of different covariance and population dynamic parameters, with corresponding statistical uncertainties, is demonstrated for case studies of fish and bat communities. We find that species heterogeneity is the main factor of spatial and temporal community similarity for both case studies.Analyzing dynamic species abundance distributions using generalized linear mixed modelspublishedVersio

Effects of local density dependence and temperature on the spatial synchrony of marine fish populations

Disentangling empirically the many processes affecting spatial population synchrony is a challenge in population ecology. Two processes that could have major effects on the spatial synchrony of wild population dynamics are density dependence and variation in environmental conditions like temperature. Understanding these effects is crucial for predicting the effects of climate change on local and regional population dynamics. We quantified the direct contribution of local temperature and density dependence to spatial synchrony in the population dynamics of nine fish species inhabiting the Barents Sea. First, we estimated the degree to which the annual spatial autocorrelations in density are influenced by temperature. Second, we estimated and mapped the local effects of temperature and strength of density dependence on annual changes in density. Finally, we measured the relative effects of temperature and density dependence on the spatial synchrony in changes in density. Temperature influenced the annual spatial autocorrelation in density more in species with greater affinities to the benthos and to warmer waters. Temperature correlated positively with changes in density in the eastern Barents Sea for most species. Temperature had a weak synchronizing effect on density dynamics, while increasing strength of density dependence consistently desynchronised the dynamics. Quantifying the relative effects of different processes affecting population synchrony is important to better predict how population dynamics might change when environmental conditions change. Here, high degrees of spatial synchrony in the population dynamics remained unexplained by local temperature and density dependence, confirming the presence of additional synchronizing drivers, such as trophic interactions or harvesting.publishedVersio

Spatial scaling of population synchrony in marine fish depends on their life history

The synchrony of population dynamics in space has important implications for ecological processes, for example affecting the spread of diseases, spatial distributions and risk of extinction. Here, we studied the relationship between spatial scaling in population dynamics and species position along the slow‐fast continuum of life history variation. Specifically, we explored how generation time, growth rate and mortality rate predicted the spatial scaling of abundance and yearly changes in abundance of eight marine fish species. Our results show that population dynamics of species' with ‘slow’ life histories are synchronised over greater distances than those of species with ‘fast’ life histories. These findings provide evidence for a relationship between the position of the species along the life history continuum and population dynamics in space, showing that the spatial distribution of abundance may be related to life history characteristics.acceptedVersio

Predator co-occurrence in alpine and Arctic tundra in relation to fluctuating prey

1. Large carnivores influence ecosystem dynamics in multiple ways, for example, by suppressing meso-carnivores and providing carrions for smaller scavengers. Loss of large carnivores is suggested to cause meso-carnivore increase and expansion. Moreover, competition between meso-carnivores may be modified by the presence of larger carnivores. In tundra ecosystems, the smallest meso-carnivore, the Arctic fox, has experienced regional declines, whereas its larger and competitively superior congener, the red fox, has increased, potentially due to changes in the abundance of apex predators. 2. We explored if variation in the occurrence of wolverine and golden eagle impacted the occurrence and co-occurrence of the Arctic fox and red fox in relation to varying abundances of small rodents within the Scandinavian tundra. 3. We applied multi-species occupancy models to an extensive wildlife camera dataset from 2011–2020 covering 98 sites. Daily detection/non-detection of each species per camera trap site and study period (late winter; March–May) was stacked across years, and species occupancy was related to small rodent abundance while accounting for time of the year and status of simulated carcass. 4. The Arctic fox was more likely to co-occur with the red fox when the wolverine was present and less likely to co-occur with the red fox when golden eagles were present and the wolverine was absent. Red foxes increased in occupancy when co-occurring with the larger predators. The Arctic fox responded more strongly to small rodent abundance than the red fox and co-occurred more often with the other species at carcasses when rodent abundance was low. 5. Our findings suggest that the interspecific interactions within this tundra predator guild appear to be surprisingly intricate, driven by facets of fear of predation, interspecific mediation and facilitation, and food resource dynamics. These dynamics of intraguild interactions may dictate where and when conservation actions targeted towards the Arctic fox should be implemented

‘You shall not pass!’: quantifying barrier permeability and proximity avoidance by animals

1. Impediments to animal movement are ubiquitous and vary widely in both scale and permeability. It is essential to understand how impediments alter ecological dynamics via their influence on animal behavioural strategies governing space use and, for anthropogenic features such as roads and fences, how to mitigate these effects to effectively manage species and landscapes.2. Here, we focused primarily on barriers to movement, which we define as features that cannot be circumnavigated but may be crossed. Responses to barriers will be influenced by the movement capabilities of the animal, its proximity to the barriers, and habitat preference. We developed a mechanistic modelling framework for simultaneously quantifying the permeability and proximity effects of barriers on habitat preference and movement.3. We used simulations based on our model to demonstrate how parameters on movement, habitat preference and barrier permeability can be estimated statistically. We then applied the model to a case study of road effects on wild mountain reindeer summer movements.4. This framework provided unbiased and precise parameter estimates across a range of strengths of preferences and barrier permeabilities. The quality of permeability estimates, however, was correlated with the number of times the barrier is crossed and the number of locations in proximity to barriers. In the case study we found that reindeer avoided areas near roads and that roads are semi-permeable barriers to movement. There was strong avoidance of roads extending up to c. 1 km for four of five animals, and having to cross roads reduced the probability of movement by 68·6% (range 3·5–99·5%).5. Human infrastructure has embedded within it the idea of networks: nodes connected by linear features such as roads, rail tracks, pipelines, fences and cables, many of which divide the landscape and limit animal movement. The unintended but potentially profound consequences of infrastructure on animals remain poorly understood. The rigorous framework for simultaneously quantifying movement, habitat preference and barrier permeability developed here begins to address this knowledge gap

THE EFFECTS OF HUMAN ACTIVITY ON SUMMER HABITAT USE BY MOOSE

Non-fatal disturbance by humans can be analogous to predation risk because animal response to both directly reduces time available for other fitness-increasing activities such as foraging, maternal care, and reproductive behaviour. We studied the effects of human disturbance on moose (Alces alces) by examining hourly locations and movement patterns of 41 GPS-marked moose relative to human activity in central Norway during summer 2006. Our results indicated that moose moved further from inhabited houses and to areas of lower housing density in periods of high human activity as compared to periods of low human activity, and that this behavioural response was closely related to the level of human activity in the area used by moose. We also detected significant differences between responses of males and females with calves; males were more willing to use areas near houses and with higher housing density during periods of low human activity. This differential response was likely due to the higher perceived risks of foraging associated with maternal protection of non-independent offspring. Our study supports the idea that indirect cost associated with human disturbance is analogous to the influence of perceived predation risk on animals. We suggest that such indirect effects on moose should be accounted for when planning human construction and activity in prime moose habitat

Ivaretagelse av ville pollinatorer og planter tilknyttet kulturlandskapet i byutviklingen. Oppsummering av forskningsprosjektet BE(E) DIVERSE

Det er en global nedgang av ville pollinatorer, og hovedårsaken til dette er at leveområdene deres er under press og går tapt på grunn av urbanisering og andre arealendringer. I BE(E) DIVERSE prosjektet har vi derfor studert hvordan artsmangfoldet og samspillet mellom planter og ville pollinatorer påvirkes av urbanisering og hvordan dette ivaretas i beslutningsprosesser på lokalt nivå og gjennom konkrete forvaltningstiltak. Vi har hatt ett spesielt fokus på artsrike semi-naturlige enger og veikanter. Oppsummert så viser resultatene fra BE(E) DIVERSE at det viktigste tiltak for å ivareta pollinatorer og deres blomsterressurser er å sikre gjenværende leveområder med høy kvalitet, som semi-naturlige enger, i både urbane og rurale områder. Både semi-naturlig eng og alternative leveområder som veikanter, må skjøttes riktig og inngå i en helhetlig landsapsforvaltning i kommunens arealplanlegging.Ivaretagelse av ville pollinatorer og planter tilknyttet kulturlandskapet i byutviklingen. Oppsummering av forskningsprosjektet BE(E) DIVERSEpublishedVersio

Habitat quality influences population distribution, individual space use and functional responses in habitat selection by a large herbivore

Identifying factors shaping variation in resource selection is central for our understanding of the behaviour and distribution of animals. We examined summer habitat selection and space use by 108 Global Positioning System (GPS)-collared moose in Norway in relation to sex, reproductive status, habitat quality, and availability. Moose selected habitat types based on a combination of forage quality and availability of suitable habitat types. Selection of protective cover was strongest for reproducing females, likely reflecting the need to protect young. Males showed strong selection for habitat types with high quality forage, possibly due to higher energy requirements. Selection for preferred habitat types providing food and cover was a positive function of their availability within home ranges (i.e. not proportional use) indicating functional response in habitat selection. This relationship was not found for unproductive habitat types. Moreover, home ranges with high cover of unproductive habitat types were larger, and smaller home ranges contained higher proportions of the most preferred habitat type. The distribution of moose within the study area was partly related to the distribution of different habitat types. Our study shows how distribution and availability of habitat types providing cover and high-quality food shape ungulate habitat selection and space use

Moose Alces alces habitat use at multiple temporal scales in a human-altered landscape

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Life history consequences of environmental variation along ecological gradients in northern ungulates

Temporal and spatial variation in the environment can influence the performance of individuals in wild ungulate populations. Of particular importance is an understanding of the mechanisms that shape variation in individual body mass, because several important life history traits are directly related to body mass. Body mass is one of the first traits that is influenced by environmental variation, and often the effect operates through variation in the components of the foraging niche of ungulates. In this thesis, I aim to demonstrate how measurements of environmental variation relate to variation in the foraging niche of ungulates. Furthermore, I aim to explore how variation in ungulate life history traits relates to these variables, and finally, how the management of ungulates could benefit from the incorporation of knowledge about the effects of environmental variation on population dynamics. I use weather observations, large-scale climate indices, and indices of environmental phenology based on satellite-derived vegetation indices (NDVI) to analyse the effect of environmental variation on plants and body mass in moose (Alces alces) and roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) populations. The environmental variables that explained most of the variation in plant performance, measured as radial growth in common juniper (Juniper communis) also explained variation in ungulate body mass. These variables were related to conditions in spring and early summer. Plant growth was low in cold summers, and in spring where the green-up curve as measured by change in photosynthetic activity during spring was moderate. Such growing conditions are recognised to increase the quality of the plants as forage for ungulates. Consequently, moose body mass in autumn showed the opposite pattern than juniper to environmental conditions, indicating that quality of plants, rather than the quantity, is an important component in temperate ungulate foraging niche. Further, regional variation in moose body mass was associated with environmental variables related to forage quality. Roe deer body mass was associated with availability of forage during winter, and not with factors related to summer conditions. Factors related to forage quantity neither influenced temporal nor spatial variation in body mass in the two species. Accordingly, it appears that both weather observations and satellite-derived vegetation indices are able to effectively predict variation in plant performance related to variation in foraging conditions for ungulates. The variation in forage quality in space and time created variation in body mass between populations and between cohorts within a population. Further, the variation in body mass between moose population, caused by variation in the foraging conditions, predicted how the populations differentially respond to the effects of environmental stochastisity. In populations with a high mean body mass, or a low density relative to plant biomass production, available resources buffered environmental stochastisity, and were less influenced by environmental variation than populations with relatively fewer resources available. If wildlife managers fail to incorporate the effects of environmental variation on population performance, e.g. on the recruitment rate, the population may show unexpected and large fluctuations in size. Therefore, managers should attempt to incorporate knowledge of recent environmental conditions on the population when setting harvesting quotas. In face of the large variation in environmental conditions experienced by the ungulate populations in Norway, and the fact that responses to environmental variation varies between populations, management should be regionally adapted, and aim to incorporate variation in vital rates caused by environmental conditions. This is likely to create more stable and predictable populations. In face of the predicted climate and landscape changes in Norwegian forests, environmental variables, e.g. from satellite-derived vegetation indices, have the potential to be a powerful tool for a sustainable management of ungulate populations. Consequently, such information should be incorporated into the management of ungulates in order to a) obtain a management of ungulate populations that is adapted to regional mechanisms of environmental variation, and b) acquire a management that is sustainable in face of future change in climate and landscape that may vary regionally. This calls for a regional differentiation in management strategies