Outcomes-Based Conditionality: Its Role and Optimal Design

This paper employs a principal-agent framework to analyze the role and design of outcomes-based conditionality in the presence of market frictions and domestic opposition. The results suggest that outcomes-based conditionality is a good option for the IMF when opposition to reforms is relatively weak and when IMF loans are unsubsidized. The only role conditionality ends up playing in this case is that of an efficiency tool to ensure efficient allocation of resources in the presence of market frictions. The benefits of outcomes-based conditionality in the presence of strong opposition are less clear, and using this conditionality as an incentive tool would require IMF financing to be subsidized. Copyright 2006, International Monetary Fund

On the sample mean after a group sequential trial

A popular setting in medical statistics is a group sequential trial with independent and identically distributed normal outcomes, in which interim analyses of the sum of the outcomes are performed. Based on a prescribed stopping rule, one decides after each interim analysis whether the trial is stopped or continued. Consequently, the actual length of the study is a random variable. It is reported in the literature that the interim analyses may cause bias if one uses the ordinary sample mean to estimate the location parameter. For a generic stopping rule, which contains many classical stopping rules as a special case, explicit formulas for the expected length of the trial, the bias, and the mean squared error (MSE) are provided. It is deduced that, for a fixed number of interim analyses, the bias and the MSE converge to zero if the first interim analysis is performed not too early. In addition, optimal rates for this convergence are provided. Furthermore, under a regularity condition, asymptotic normality in total variation distance for the sample mean is established. A conclusion for naive confidence intervals based on the sample mean is derived. It is also shown how the developed theory naturally fits in the broader framework of likelihood theory in a group sequential trial setting. A simulation study underpins the theoretical findings.Comment: 52 pages (supplementary data file included

Vaagnaorganite prolaps naistel ja selle füsioteraapia

http://www.ester.ee/record=b476918

The traditions of realism in the literary and philosophical concept of M.M. Filippova

Mikhail Mikhailovich Filippov - the Great Russian writer, literary historian, representative of the "natural school". In his works, Filippov talks about the role of art in human life. Filippov calls deduction as the main method of knowing reality. The basis of the works of art M.M. Filippova has an illusion that elevates reality

Legal personality of artificial intelligence under international law

To be able to offer a deeper understanding of the topic this work will first examine the concept of legal personality, its meaning and application in the legal framework of international law over the years. Without claiming advanced technological knowledge in scientific areas like robotics and engineering the paper will then try to present some basic overview over the latest developments concerning Artificial Intelligence, such as quantum computing and emotional intelligence. Consequently some suggestions about possibilities of connecting these two topics will be made. The questions introduced will engage with the nature and different forms of legal personhood, its connection to intelligence, autonomy and/or consciousness. This paper aims to create a more practical and not a general, hypothetical idea of how an AI agent could be granted international legal personality and what could be the possible effects of that (for example rights and obligations). For this purpose it will focus on the recognised subjects of international law and examine on their example an AI agent as a possible future actor in international legal relationships. Subject of reference will be international law and recent developments in EU law, such as the European Parliament initiative to regulate Artificial Intelligence as well as some regulations and “visions” of national legislation, for example Estonia and China. Consequently the dangers of granting legal personhood to AI agents will be presented and discussed. The arguments against the creation of a “technical veil” will be examined closely. The work will then refer to possible advantages and positive aspects of an AI’s legal personhood under international law. In the final chapter a conclusion and some recommendation will be made

Mari Folk Music Influences on Andrei Eshpai\u27s Viola Concerto, Vengerskie Napevy (Hungarian Tunes), and a Transcription of Hungarian Tunes for Viola in the Viola Repertoire

Andrei Eshpai was one of the most renown composers who drew on the Mari folk music traditions, within the confines of Western classical music. One of the main purposes of the research is to show how the Mari folk music was applied in Eshpai’s compositions for the viola. In the current research, I will explain the similarity between folk music of Mari and Hungary because the researched composition Hungarian Tunes by Eshpai is based on Mari tunes, however is called Hungarian Tunes. Another purpose of this research is to provide musical analysis and a performance guide for the compositions, where I will write about some aspects of learning process like technical difficulties and how to solve them, while searching for timbre, interpretation and meaning. Also, as an addition to the viola repertoire, I have made a transcription of the Hungarian Tunes for the viola and piano, which can make the repertoire of every violist expanded