Sensitivity Analysis Method to Address User Disparities in the Analytic Hierarchy Process

Decision makers often face complex problems, which can seldom be addressed well without the use of structured analytical models. Mathematical models have been developed to streamline and facilitate decision making activities, and among these, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) constitutes one of the most utilized multi-criteria decision analysis methods. While AHP has been thoroughly researched and applied, the method still shows limitations in terms of addressing user profile disparities. A novel sensitivity analysis method based on local partial derivatives is presented here to address these limitations. This new methodology informs AHP users of which pairwise comparisons most impact the derived weights and the ranking of alternatives. The method can also be applied to decision processes that require the aggregation of results obtained by several users, as it highlights which individuals most critically impact the aggregated group results while also enabling to focus on inputs that drive the final ordering of alternatives. An aerospace design and engineering example that requires group decision making is presented to demonstrate and validate the proposed methodology

Aerodynamically-Actuated Radical Shape-Change Concept

Aerodynamically-actuated radical shape change (AARSC) is a novel concept that enables flight vehicles to conduct a mission profile containing radically different flight regimes while possibly mitigating the typical penalties incurred by radical geometric change. Weight penalties are mitigated by utilizing a primary flight control to generate aerodynamic loads that then drive a shape-change actuation. The flight mission profile used to analyze the AARSC concept is that of a transport aircraft that cruises at a lower altitude than typical transports. Based upon a preliminary analysis, substantial fuel savings are realized for mission ranges below 2000 NM by comparison to a state-of-the-art baseline, with an increasing impact as mission range is reduced. The predicted savings are so significant at short-haul ranges that the shape-change concept rivals the fuel-burn performance of turboprop aircraft while completing missions in less time than typical jet aircraft. Lower-altitude cruise has also been sought after in recent years for environmental benefits, however, the performance penalty to conventional aircraft was prohibitive. AARSC may enable the opportunity to realize the environmental benefits of lower-altitude emissions coupled with mission fuel savings. The findings of this study also reveal that the AARSC concept appears to be controllable, turbulence susceptibility is likely not an issue, and the shape change concept appears to be mechanically and aerodynamically feasible

Assessing Alternatives in the Systems Engineering Process: Case Study of an Earth Observing Satellite Concept

Defining design alternatives constitutes one of the critical initial steps of the systems engineering process. Once these design alternatives have been identified, assessing which alternatives best satisfy the projects objectives can prove to be challenging when dealing with complex decision frameworks. Complex systems often involve the participation of different interest groups, who have different value systems and are focused on distinct aspects of the project. For example, design alternatives might be assessed predominantly for their technical merit by one group of stakeholders, while a different group might be more inclined to assess the design alternatives primarily based on programmatic values. MESCAL (Monitoring the Evolving State of Clouds and Aerosol Layers) is an ongoing NASA / CNES (Centre National dEtudes Spatiales) joint study for an active remote sensing Earth observing satellite. Several design alternatives have been identified and the assessment of these alternatives requires consideration of a variety of factors. This paper presents the approach that was used to support a global assessment of the MESCAL design alternatives. A mapping of the interactions between mission, instrument, and science requirements was modeled to support the assessment of the trade space. In addition, a set of metrics was developed to structure the assessment that was conducted. Finally, this paper also discusses the general applicability of these metrics to other science mission concepts in the formulation phase

Cost-Benefit Analysis for the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) Method for Fabricating Stiffened Cylinders

This cost-benefit analysis assesses the benefits of the Advanced Near Net Shape Technology (ANNST) manufacturing process for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. These preliminary, rough order-of-magnitude results report a 46 to 58 percent reduction in production costs and a 7-percent reduction in weight over the conventional metallic manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison. Production cost savings of 35 to 58 percent were reported over the composite manufacturing technique used in this study for comparison; however, the ANNST concept was heavier. In this study, the predicted return on investment of equipment required for the ANNST method was ten cryogenic tank barrels when compared with conventional metallic manufacturing. The ANNST method was compared with the conventional multi-piece metallic construction and composite processes for fabricating integrally stiffened cylinders. A case study compared these three alternatives for manufacturing a cylinder of specified geometry, with particular focus placed on production costs and process complexity, with cost analyses performed by the analogy and parametric methods. Furthermore, a scalability study was conducted for three tank diameters to assess the highest potential payoff of the ANNST process for manufacture of large-diameter cryogenic tanks. The analytical hierarchy process (AHP) was subsequently used with a group of selected subject matter experts to assess the value of the various benefits achieved by the ANNST method for potential stakeholders. The AHP study results revealed that decreased final cylinder mass and quality assurance were the most valued benefits of cylinder manufacturing methods, therefore emphasizing the relevance of the benefits achieved with the ANNST process for future projects

A Randomized, Double-blind, Placebo-Controlled Study of Latrepirdine in Patients With Mild to Moderate Huntington Disease

Experimentele farmacotherapi