An analysis of area and production growth rate along with price forecasting of major pulses in Bangladesh

Pulses are the most significant crops in the world, as well as in Bangladesh, for their commer-cial and nutritional importance. The study was carried out to determine the rate of expansion in area and production for several types of pulses such as Mosur, Mung, Mashkalai, Gram, and Khesari in Bangladesh, as well as to anticipate wholesale prices for those pulses. Secondary data from the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) and the Department of Agricultural Marketing were used in this study. Following a diagnostic check, such as R2, Adjusted R2, RMSE, AIC, BIC, MAE, and MAPPE, it was discovered that the Cubic growth model was the best for specified pulses. The data over the entire time revealed that total output in the area rose in the case of all pulses. Mosur and Mung had positive average production growth rates of 2.02 and 6.919 percent, respectively. Mashkalai, Gram, and Khesari experienced negative growth rates of -0.541, -8.894, and -0.854 percent, respectively. After computing the average percentage change for Area growth rate Mosur, Mung, and Mashkalai showed positive growth rates of 1.229, 4.631, and 1.152 percent, respectively. In contrast, Gram and Khesari both had negative average values of -7.719 and -1.987 percent. This study applied the ARIMA (0,1,0) (1,0,1) model for Mosur, ARIMA (0,1,2) model for Mung, ARIMA (2,1,2) model for Mashkalai, ARIMA (2,1,4) model for Gram, and ARIMA (0,1,0) model for Khesari since those models passed the diagnostic test. Forecasting findings revealed that Mosur, Gram, and Khesari wholesale prices would be marginally modified, while Mung and Mashkalai wholesale prices would be raised in 2025. Thus, analyzing the growth rates of area and output of key pulses may help farmers allocate their land more wisely and price forecasts will help farmers in identifying the best crops for their production, which will improve the output of these crops in Bangladesh

Future scenarios of fish supply and demand for food and nutrition security in Bangladesh: An analysis with the AsiaFish model

Bangladesh has made significant progress in social and economic development in recent years, but micronutrient deficiencies and poor dietary diversity remain a significant challenge. This paper developed five scenarios to explore futures of fish supply-demand in Bangladesh using the AsiaFish model, with special emphasis on the role of fish in macronutrient and micronutrient supply to address the nation's malnutrition and nutrition security challenges. A business-as-usual (BAU) scenario followed historical trends for exogenous variables used in the model. The four alternative scenarios explored: the implications of increase productivity of farmed tilapia, pangasius and rohu carp (AS1); improvements in the quality of feeds (AS2); disease outbreak in farmed shrimps and prawns (AS3); and climate change impacts (AS4). The BAU scenario indicates that aquaculture growth will be a prominent contribution to increasing total fish supply and demand and fish exports to 2040. Apart from the scenarios that are favourable to aquaculture sector development, other alternative scenarios highlighted the lower growth rate of capture fisheries and aquaculture compared to BAU, resulting in declining in per capita fish consumption, fish exports and nutrient supply from fish as a consequence. Increased availability of aquaculture fish can slightly compensate for the lower growth of capture fisheries in term of their nutrition quality and dietary diversity, particularly for poor consumers. Policies towards sustaining fisheries and a nutrition-sensitive approach to aquaculture is recommended as both capture fisheries and aquaculture are essential for sustaining healthy and nutritious diets in Bangladesh

Impact of Integrated Aquaculture-agriculture Value Chain Participation on Welfare of Marginalized Indigenous Households in Bangladesh: A Panel Data Analysis

In the light of on-going debates about the sustainable agricultural intensification and sustainable development paradigms, this paper examined the linkages between integrated aquaculture-agriculture (IAA) value chain participation dynamics and the welfare of marginalized extremely poor indigenous households using a three-wave household panel dataset from Bangladesh. The distributional effect of IAA participation was also investigated by examining impacts across different value chain actors. We applied pooled Ordinary Least Squares, Random-Effects, and Standard Fixed-Effects, Heckit panel, and control function approaches to control for endogeneity of IAA participation and unobserved heterogeneity. We found that IAA value chain participation is positively correlated with household income and the consumption frequency of certain goods, especially fish consumption, and the benefits do not continue to accrue after discontinuing participation in the value chain. The results reveal that IAA value chain participation has higher impacts on the welfare of relatively wealthier households involved in production related IAA value chain activities than on landless, extremely poor households who were involved in upstream and downstream IAA value chain activities

Protection and comparative advantage of rice production in Bangladesh: A policy analysis matrix

The study determines the policy incentive in terms of protection and efficiency of production through comparative advantages in the rice sector by using policy analysis matrix (PAM) for the period of 2003 to 2005 nominal average on the basis of secondary data from different published and unpublished sources. From policy analysis matrix in-line with private/financial profit, social/economic profit and policy divergences/transfers various protection coefficients such as NPCO, NPCI, EPC and PC and competiveness coefficients such as DRC, SCB, SNRL and PNRL were derived to measure the level of protection and comparative advantage in the rice sector of Bangladesh.The results of the policy transfer and protection coefficients ( NPCO,NPCI, EPC and PCO criteria) shows that rice production in Bangladesh is subsidized for inputs (NPCI\u3c1) and taxed for the product/output (NPCO\u3c1).The net effect of output taxation and input subsidy resulted in a net taxation on value added (EPC\u3c1) for policy goal of self sufficiency. On the efficiency ground, the estimated economic profitability criteria and competitiveness indicators (DRC, SCB, PNRL and SNRL) demonstrate that Bangladesh has comparative advantage in domestic rice production for import substitution and its opposite under export parity situation. Thus the results are consistent with the intuition of the simple Heckscher-Ohlin model because rice has a higher labor/land ration than other crops. The sensitivity analysis shows the sensitiveness of rice production competitiveness towards technological improvement, climate change and change in international and national price of input and output under import parity condition. Finally, based on the findings of the study some policy recommendations were made

Mobile phone ownership, income diversification, and household welfare in rural Bangladesh

Mobile phone has been widely adopted in developing countries with potential to enhance opportunities for finding employment and business opportunities which builds resilience of rural livelihoods. Although the effect of mobile phones on income has been studied in the past, the potential to increase income diversification and reduce poverty has not been studied so much. To fill this gap, we investigate the linkage among mobile phone ownership, income diversification, and household welfare, using monetary and non-monetary aspects of poverty. Using instrumental variable approach, we find that mobile phone ownership increases income diversification then reduces the incidence and depth of poverty. It also has significant impact on non-monetary aspects of poverty. Our heterogeneity analysis shows the pro-poor impacts of mobile phone ownership as well as that female-headed households enjoy larger impact of mobile phone ownership on income diversification. Moreover, Gini decomposition of different income sources with propensity score matching indicates that the off-farm income results in an inequality-equalizing effect among the rural households owning mobile phones in Bangladesh, suggesting the income diversification through mobile phone ownership improves the overall welfare of the rural society

Weather shocks and child nutritional status in rural Bangladesh: Does labor allocation have a role to play?

Despite substantial efforts to improve food and nutrient intake in the last decades, child undernutrition remains a daunting challenge, particularly in developing countries' rural areas. Today, frequent extreme weather events harm agricultural production, exacerbating the food shortage problem in these regions. Although off-farm labor is found to be an ex-ante strategy for mitigating weather shocks, little is known about how households' labor reallocation in response to weather shocks is associated with child nutritional status as an ex-post strategy. We investigate how different forms of labor activity mitigate the effect of rainfall shocks on children's nutritional status, using three waves of nationally representative panel data from rural households in Bangladesh, in conjunction with historical monthly precipitation and temperature data. Our findings show that less rainfall during the main cropping season in the year before the survey is associated with a lower weight for age z-score (WAZ score) of children under the age of five years. The findings indicate that there are heterogeneous mitigating impacts of different types of labor allocation affecting the link between rainfall shocks and child health. While maternal labor allocation plays a role as a mitigation factor, household-level labor time and other household members' labor time are not significantly associated with the link between rainfall shocks and child nutritional status. Findings also show that maternal off-farm self-employment mitigates the negative impact of rainfall shortage, whereas maternal on-farm labor exacerbates the rainfall shock impact. Our results therefore underscore the importance of providing sufficient off-farm employment opportunities for mothers and addressing maternal time constraints through targeted policies to cope with rainfall shocks and improve child nutrition

Dairy contract farming in Bangladesh: Implications for welfare and food safety

Contract farming is emerging as an important institutional innovation in the high value food chain in developing countries including Bangladesh, and its socioeconomic implications are topic of interest in policy debates. This study is an empirical assessment to explore the determinants of participation and the impact of contract farming on welfare and adoption of food safety practice in Bangladesh. Our analysis indicates that contract farmers are more likely to have better access to agricultural extension services, attended proportionately more community meetings, households members are member of organizations, access more credit, are located farther from output market, and have larger herd sizes. We also find that network variables such as time spent with cooperatives and other institutions and price fluctuation and average prices received experience before participation in contract are strongly associated with participation in contract farming. We find that contract farming has a robust positive impact on welfare measured by expenditure, farm profit and farm productivity, and food safety practice adoption even after innovatively controlling for observed and unobserved heterogeneity among dairy farmers. More specifically results indicate that a one unit increase in the likelihood of participating in contract farming is associated with a 42, 35,34 and 9 percent increase in household expenditure, gross margin and net margin per cow, and food safety practice adoption rate respectively, among other positive impacts.Non-PRIFPRI1; DCA; CRP2; CRP4; ReSAKSS Asia; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 3 Building Inclusive and Efficient Markets, Trade Systems, and Food Industry; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; 5 Strengthening Institutions and Governance; Capacity StrengtheningSAR; A4NH; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM); CGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH

Farm diversification and food and nutrition security in Bangladesh: Empirical evidence from nationally representative household panel data

PRIFPRI3; ISI; PRSSP; CRP4; 2 Promoting Healthy Diets and Nutrition for all; 4 Transforming Agricultural and Rural Economies; CRP2PHND; A4NH; PIMCGIAR Research Program on Agriculture for Nutrition and Health (A4NH); CGIAR Research Programs on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM