Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BackgroundDisorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021.MethodsWe estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined.FindingsGlobally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer.InterpretationAs the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed

Global burden of 288 causes of death and life expectancy decomposition in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND Regular, detailed reporting on population health by underlying cause of death is fundamental for public health decision making. Cause-specific estimates of mortality and the subsequent effects on life expectancy worldwide are valuable metrics to gauge progress in reducing mortality rates. These estimates are particularly important following large-scale mortality spikes, such as the COVID-19 pandemic. When systematically analysed, mortality rates and life expectancy allow comparisons of the consequences of causes of death globally and over time, providing a nuanced understanding of the effect of these causes on global populations. METHODS The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 cause-of-death analysis estimated mortality and years of life lost (YLLs) from 288 causes of death by age-sex-location-year in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations for each year from 1990 until 2021. The analysis used 56 604 data sources, including data from vital registration and verbal autopsy as well as surveys, censuses, surveillance systems, and cancer registries, among others. As with previous GBD rounds, cause-specific death rates for most causes were estimated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model-a modelling tool developed for GBD to assess the out-of-sample predictive validity of different statistical models and covariate permutations and combine those results to produce cause-specific mortality estimates-with alternative strategies adapted to model causes with insufficient data, substantial changes in reporting over the study period, or unusual epidemiology. YLLs were computed as the product of the number of deaths for each cause-age-sex-location-year and the standard life expectancy at each age. As part of the modelling process, uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated using the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles from a 1000-draw distribution for each metric. We decomposed life expectancy by cause of death, location, and year to show cause-specific effects on life expectancy from 1990 to 2021. We also used the coefficient of variation and the fraction of population affected by 90% of deaths to highlight concentrations of mortality. Findings are reported in counts and age-standardised rates. Methodological improvements for cause-of-death estimates in GBD 2021 include the expansion of under-5-years age group to include four new age groups, enhanced methods to account for stochastic variation of sparse data, and the inclusion of COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality-which includes excess mortality associated with the pandemic, excluding COVID-19, lower respiratory infections, measles, malaria, and pertussis. For this analysis, 199 new country-years of vital registration cause-of-death data, 5 country-years of surveillance data, 21 country-years of verbal autopsy data, and 94 country-years of other data types were added to those used in previous GBD rounds. FINDINGS The leading causes of age-standardised deaths globally were the same in 2019 as they were in 1990; in descending order, these were, ischaemic heart disease, stroke, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infections. In 2021, however, COVID-19 replaced stroke as the second-leading age-standardised cause of death, with 94·0 deaths (95% UI 89·2-100·0) per 100 000 population. The COVID-19 pandemic shifted the rankings of the leading five causes, lowering stroke to the third-leading and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease to the fourth-leading position. In 2021, the highest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (271·0 deaths [250·1-290·7] per 100 000 population) and Latin America and the Caribbean (195·4 deaths [182·1-211·4] per 100 000 population). The lowest age-standardised death rates from COVID-19 were in the high-income super-region (48·1 deaths [47·4-48·8] per 100 000 population) and southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania (23·2 deaths [16·3-37·2] per 100 000 population). Globally, life expectancy steadily improved between 1990 and 2019 for 18 of the 22 investigated causes. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the positive effect that reductions in deaths from enteric infections, lower respiratory infections, stroke, and neonatal deaths, among others have contributed to improved survival over the study period. However, a net reduction of 1·6 years occurred in global life expectancy between 2019 and 2021, primarily due to increased death rates from COVID-19 and other pandemic-related mortality. Life expectancy was highly variable between super-regions over the study period, with southeast Asia, east Asia, and Oceania gaining 8·3 years (6·7-9·9) overall, while having the smallest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 (0·4 years). The largest reduction in life expectancy due to COVID-19 occurred in Latin America and the Caribbean (3·6 years). Additionally, 53 of the 288 causes of death were highly concentrated in locations with less than 50% of the global population as of 2021, and these causes of death became progressively more concentrated since 1990, when only 44 causes showed this pattern. The concentration phenomenon is discussed heuristically with respect to enteric and lower respiratory infections, malaria, HIV/AIDS, neonatal disorders, tuberculosis, and measles. INTERPRETATION Long-standing gains in life expectancy and reductions in many of the leading causes of death have been disrupted by the COVID-19 pandemic, the adverse effects of which were spread unevenly among populations. Despite the pandemic, there has been continued progress in combatting several notable causes of death, leading to improved global life expectancy over the study period. Each of the seven GBD super-regions showed an overall improvement from 1990 and 2021, obscuring the negative effect in the years of the pandemic. Additionally, our findings regarding regional variation in causes of death driving increases in life expectancy hold clear policy utility. Analyses of shifting mortality trends reveal that several causes, once widespread globally, are now increasingly concentrated geographically. These changes in mortality concentration, alongside further investigation of changing risks, interventions, and relevant policy, present an important opportunity to deepen our understanding of mortality-reduction strategies. Examining patterns in mortality concentration might reveal areas where successful public health interventions have been implemented. Translating these successes to locations where certain causes of death remain entrenched can inform policies that work to improve life expectancy for people everywhere. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Automated contouring and statistical process control for plan quality in a breast clinical trial

Background and purpose: Automatic review of breast plan quality for clinical trials is time-consuming and has some unique challenges due to the lack of target contours for some planning techniques. We propose using an auto-contouring model and statistical process control to independently assess planning consistency in retrospective data from a breast radiotherapy clinical trial. Materials and methods: A deep learning auto-contouring model was created and tested quantitatively and qualitatively on 104 post-lumpectomy patients’ computed tomography images (nnUNet; train/test: 80/20). The auto-contouring model was then applied to 127 patients enrolled in a clinical trial. Statistical process control was used to assess the consistency of the mean dose to auto-contours between plans and treatment modalities by setting control limits within three standard deviations of the data’s mean. Two physicians reviewed plans outside the limits for possible planning inconsistencies. Results: Mean Dice similarity coefficients comparing manual and auto-contours was above 0.7 for breast clinical target volume, supraclavicular and internal mammary nodes. Two radiation oncologists scored 95% of contours as clinically acceptable. The mean dose in the clinical trial plans was more variable for lymph node auto-contours than for breast, with a narrower distribution for volumetric modulated arc therapy than for 3D conformal treatment, requiring distinct control limits. Five plans (5%) were flagged and reviewed by physicians: one required editing, two had clinically acceptable variations in planning, and two had poor auto-contouring. Conclusions: An automated contouring model in a statistical process control framework was appropriate for assessing planning consistency in a breast radiotherapy clinical trial

Predictors of Radiation Pneumonitis in Patients Receiving Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy for Hodgkin and Non-Hodgkin Lymphoma

PurposeFew studies to date have evaluated factors associated with the development of radiation pneumonitis (RP) in patients with Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), especially in patients treated with contemporary radiation techniques. These patients represent a unique group owing to the often large radiation target volumes within the mediastinum and to the potential to receive several lines of chemotherapy that add to pulmonary toxicity for relapsed or refractory disease. Our objective was to determine the incidence and clinical and dosimetric risk factors associated with RP in lymphoma patients treated with intensity modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) at a single institution.Methods and MaterialsWe retrospectively reviewed clinical charts and radiation records of 150 consecutive patients who received mediastinal IMRT for HL and NHL from 2009 through 2013. Clinical and dosimetric predictors associated with RP according to Radiation Therapy Oncology Group (RTOG) acute toxicity criteria were identified in univariate analysis using the Pearson χ2 test and logistic multivariate regression.ResultsMediastinal radiation was administered as consolidation therapy in 110 patients with newly diagnosed HL or NHL and in 40 patients with relapsed or refractory disease. The overall incidence of RP (RTOG grades 1-3) was 14% in the entire cohort. Risk of RP was increased for patients who received radiation for relapsed or refractory disease (25%) versus those who received consolidation therapy (10%, P=.019). Several dosimetric parameters predicted RP, including mean lung dose of >13.5 Gy, V20 of >30%, V15 of >35%, V10 of >40%, and V5 of >55%. The likelihood ratio χ2 value was highest for V5 >55% (χ2 = 19.37).ConclusionsIn using IMRT to treat mediastinal lymphoma, all dosimetric parameters predicted RP, although small doses to large volumes of lung had the greatest influence. Patients with relapsed or refractory lymphoma who received salvage chemotherapy and hematopoietic stem cell transplantation were at higher risk for symptomatic RP

Comprehensive Craniospinal Radiation for Controlling Central Nervous System Leukemia

PURPOSE: To determine the benefit of radiation therapy (RT) in resolution of neurologic symptoms and deficits and whether the type of RT fields influences central nervous system (CNS) control in adults with CNS leukemia. METHODS AND MATERIALS: A total of 163 adults from 1996 to 2012 were retrospectively analyzed. Potential associations between use of radiation and outcome were investigated by univariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: The median survival time was 3.8 months after RT. Common presenting symptoms were headache in 79 patients (49%), cranial nerve VII deficit in 46 (28%), and cranial nerve II deficit in 44 (27%). RT was delivered to the base of skull in 48 patients (29%), to the whole brain (WB) in 67 (41%), and to the craniospinal axis (CS) in 48 (29%). Among 149 patients with a total of 233 deficits, resolution was observed in 34 deficits (15%), improvement in 126 deficits (54%), stability in 34 deficits (15%), and progression in 39 deficits (17%). The 12-month CNS progression-free survival was 77% among those receiving CS/WB and 51% among those receiving base of skull RT (P = .02). On multivariate analysis, patients who did not undergo stem cell transplantation after RT and base of skull RT were associated with worse CNS progression-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: Improvement or resolution of symptoms occurred in two thirds of deficits after RT. Comprehensive radiation to the WB or CS seems to offer a better outcome, especially in isolated CNS involvement