Pacific variability reconciles observed and modelled global mean temperature increase since 1950

Global mean temperature change simulated by climate models deviates from the observed temperature increase during decadal-scale periods in the past. In particular, warming during the ‘global warming hiatus’ in the early twenty-first century appears overestimated in CMIP5 and CMIP6 multi-model means. We examine the role of equatorial Pacific variability in these divergences since 1950 by comparing 18 studies that quantify the Pacific contribution to the ‘hiatus’ and earlier periods and by investigating the reasons for differing results. During the ‘global warming hiatus’ from 1992 to 2012, the estimated contributions differ by a factor of five, with multiple linear regression approaches generally indicating a smaller contribution of Pacific variability to global temperature than climate model experiments where the simulated tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) or wind stress anomalies are nudged towards observations. These so-called pacemaker experiments suggest that the ‘hiatus’ is fully explained and possibly over-explained by Pacific variability. Most of the spread across the studies can be attributed to two factors: neglecting the forced signal in tropical Pacific SST, which is often the case in multiple regression studies but not in pacemaker experiments, underestimates the Pacific contribution to global temperature change by a factor of two during the ‘hiatus’; the sensitivity with which the global temperature responds to Pacific variability varies by a factor of two between models on a decadal time scale, questioning the robustness of single model pacemaker experiments. Once we have accounted for these factors, the CMIP5 mean warming adjusted for Pacific variability reproduces the observed annual global mean temperature closely, with a correlation coefficient of 0.985 from 1950 to 2018. The CMIP6 ensemble performs less favourably but improves if the models with the highest transient climate response are omitted from the ensemble mean

Improving together: better science writing through peer learning

Science, in our case the climate and geosciences, is increasingly interdisciplinary. Scientists must therefore communicate across disciplinary boundaries. For this communication to be successful, scientists must write clearly and concisely, yet the historically poor standard of scientific writing does not seem to be improving. Scientific writing must improve, and the key to long-term improvement lies with the early-career scientist (ECS). Many interventions exist for an ECS to improve their writing, like style guides and courses. However, momentum is often difficult to maintain after these interventions are completed. Continuity is key to improving writing. This paper introduces the ClimateSnack project, which aims to motivate ECSs to develop and continue to improve their writing and communication skills. The project adopts a peer-learning framework where ECSs voluntarily form writing groups at different institutes around the world. The group members learn, discuss, and improve their writing skills together. Several ClimateSnack writing groups have formed. This paper examines why some of the groups have flourished and others have dissolved. We identify the challenges involved in making a writing group successful and effective, notably the leadership of self-organized groups, and both individual and institutional time management. Within some of the groups, peer learning clearly offers a powerful tool to improve writing as well as bringing other benefits, including improved general communication skills and increased confidence

North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation

Output from a total of 24 state-of-the-art Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models is analyzed. The models were integrated with observed forcing for the period 1850–2000 as part of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report. All models show enhanced variability at multi-decadal time scales in the North Atlantic sector similar to the observations, but with a large intermodel spread in amplitudes and frequencies for both the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). The models, in general, are able to reproduce the observed geographical patterns of warm and cold episodes, but not the phasing such as the early warming (1930s–1950s) and the following colder period (1960s–1980s). This indicates that the observed 20th century extreme in temperatures are due to primarily a fortuitous phasing of intrinsic climate variability and not dominated by external forcing. Most models show a realistic structure in the overturning circulation, where more than half of the available models have a mean overturning transport within the observed estimated range of 13–24 Sverdrup. Associated with a stronger than normal AMOC, the surface temperature is increased and the sea ice extent slightly reduced in the North Atlantic. Individual models show potential for decadal prediction based on the relationship between the AMO and AMOC, but the models strongly disagree both in phasing and strength of the covariability. This makes it difficult to identify common mechanisms and to assess the applicability for predictions

North Atlantic multidecadal variability in coupled climate models - Mechanisms and responses

Global atmosphere-ocean general circulation models have been used to investigate mechanisms controlling the North Atlantic low-frequency variability, with the focus on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, the Subpolar Gyre dynamics and the North Atlantic basin scale sea surface temperatures, called the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. The understanding of the dynamics of, and mechanisms behind the variability in these components of the climate system are of great importance for both climate reconstruction and predictability. We have shown that the air-sea interaction plays an important role in the ocean dynamics and ocean circulation in the North Atlantic

Global and regional surface cooling in a warming climate: a multi-model analysis

Instrumental temperature records show that the global climate may experience decadal-scale periods without warming despite a long-term warming trend. We analysed 17 global climate models participating in phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), identifying the likelihood and duration of periods without warming in the four Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0 and RCP8.5, together with the preindustrial control and historical simulations. We find that non-warming periods may last 10, 15 and 30 years for RCP8.5, RCP6.0 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the models, anomalous ocean heat uptake and storage are the main factors explaining the decadal-scale surface temperature hiatus periods. The low-latitude East Pacific Ocean is a key region for these variations, acting in tandem with basin-scale anomalies in the sea level pressure. During anomalously cold decades, roughly 35–50 % of the heat anomalies in the upper 700 m of the ocean are located in the Pacific Ocean, and 25 % in the Atlantic Ocean. Decadal-scale ocean heat anomalies, integrated over the upper 700 m, have a magnitude of about 7.5 × 1021 J. This is comparable to the ocean heat uptake needed to maintain a 10 year period without increasing surface temperature under global warming. On sub-decadal time scales the Atlantic, Pacific and Southern Oceans all have the ability to store large amounts of heat, contributing to variations in global surface temperature. The likelihood of decadal-scale non-warming periods decrease with global warming, firstly at the low latitude region stretching eastward from the tropical Atlantic towards the western Pacific. The North Atlantic and Southern Oceans have largest likelihood of non-warming decades in a warming world

The ETH Zurich flight emission project: Emissions 2016-2019

The following report shows the evolution of the greenhouse gas emissions from flights from business trips undertaken by ETH Zurich staff and guests, provided that the expenses are covered by ETH Zurich, and by students as part of their curriculum for the period 2016 to 2019. Overall, the flight emissions have decreased in 2019 compared to the base period 2016-2018, and more than half of the departments have already met their pledged 2025 reduction targets. This conclusion should be interpreted with care since year-to-year variations in the flight activity and therefore emissions are large. The data however show that in 2019 almost all employment categories contributed to this decrease, but overall less burden for emissions reductions are put on early career researchers (doctoral students) compared to more established researchers and professors, and emissions from guests have been cut the most (in %). For the base period, long-haul flights caused most of the emissions (86 %) although these only come from 38 % of the flights. For 2019, these numbers are 86 % and 41 %, respectively. Policies addressing or discouraging short distance flights are often aimed at flights that can be replaced by other means of transport. For the period 2016-2018, 38 % of the long-haul flights were also related to non long-haul flights, and 34 % of all short flights are related to a long-haul flight. Even thought most (94 %) flights recorded during the base period are economy class, 19 % of the emissions come from business and first class flights. This number decreased to 16 % in 2019. These numbers show that there is still potential for halving the emissions from business (and first) class flights just by changing flight class, and by cutting short flights that are not connected to other flights

Arctic/Atlantic exchanges via the Subpolar Gyre

In the present study we investigate the decadal variability in the strength and shape of the Subpolar Gyre (SPG) in a 600-year pre-industrial simulation using the Bergen Climate Model. The atmospheric influence on the SPG strength is reflected in the variability of Labrador Sea Water (LSW), which is largely controlled by the North Atlantic Oscillation, the first mode of the North Atlantic atmospheric variability. A combination of the amount of LSW, the overflow from the Nordic Seas, and the second mode of atmospheric variability, the East Atlantic Pattern, explains 44% of the modeled decadal variability in the SPG strength. A prior increase in these components leads to an intensified SPG in the western subpolar region. Typically, an increase of one standard deviation (std) of the overflow (1 std = 0.2 Sv, 1 Sv = 106 m−3 s−1) corresponds to an intensification of about one half std of the SPG strength (1 std = 2 Sv). A similar response is found for an increase of one std in the amount of LSW, and simultaneously the strength of the North Atlantic Current increases by one half std (1 std = 0.9 Sv)

Mechanisms for decadal scale variability in a simulated Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation

Variability in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) has been analysed using a 600-year pre-industrial control simulation with the Bergen Climate Model. The typical AMOC variability has amplitudes of 1 Sverdrup (1 Sv = 106 m3 s-1) and time scales of 40–70 years. The model is reproducing the observed dense water formation regions and has very realistic ocean transports and water mass distributions. The dense water produced in the Labrador Sea (1/3) and in the Nordic Seas, including the water entrained into the dense overflows across the Greenland-Scotland Ridge (GSR; 2/3), are the sources of North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) forming the lower limb of the AMOC’s northern overturning. The variability in the Labrador Sea and the Nordic Seas convection is driven by decadal scale air-sea fluxes in the convective region that can be related to opposite phases of the North Atlantic Oscillation. The Labrador Sea convection is directly linked to the variability in AMOC. Linkages between convection and water mass transformation in the Nordic Seas are more indirect. The Scandinavian Pattern, the third mode of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic, is a driver of the ocean’s poleward heat transport (PHT), the overall constraint on northern water mass transformation. Increased PHT is both associated with an increased water mass exchange across the GSR, and a stronger AMOC