Towards a General Theory of Good Deal Bounds

We consider an incomplete market in the form of a multidimensional Markovian factor model, driven by a general marked point process (representing discrete jump events) as well as by a standard multidimensional Wiener process. Within this framework we study arbitrage free good deal pricing bounds for derivative assets along the lines of Cochrane and Saa-Requejo, extending the CSR results to the point process case. As a concrete application we present numerical results for the classic Merton jump-diffusion model. As a by product of the general theory we also extend the Hansen-Jagannathan bounds for the Sharpe Ratio to the point process setting.Incomplete markets; good deal bounds; financial derivatives; arbitrage pricing

Correlation Between Intensity and Recovery in Credit Risk Models

We start by presenting a reduced-form multiple default type of model and derive abstract results on the influence of a state variable X on credit spreads, when both the intensity and the loss quota distribution are driven by X. The aim is to apply the results to a concrete real life situation, namely, to the influence of macroeconomic risks on credit spreads term structures. There has been increasing support in the empirical literature that both the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) are correlated and driven by macroeconomic variables. Paradoxically, there has been very little effort from the theoretical literature to develop credit risk models that would include this possibility. A possible justification has to do with the increase in complexity this leads to, even for the "treatable" default intensity models. The goal of this paper is to develop the theoretical framework needed to handle this situation and, through numerical simulation, understand the impact on credit risk term structures of the macroeconomic risks. In the proposed model the state of the economy is modeled trough the dynamics of a market index, that enters directly on the functional form of both the intensity of default and the distribution of the loss quota given default. Given this setup, we are able to make periods of economic depression, periods of higher default intensity as well as periods where low recovery is more likely, producing a business cycle effect. Furthermore, we allow for the possibility of an index volatility that depends negatively on the index level and show that, when we include this realistic feature, the impacts on the credit spread term structure are emphasized.Credit risk; sistematic risk; intensity models; recovery; credit spreads

Laws for Sale: Evidence from Russia

How does regulatory capture affect growth? We construct measures of the political power of firms and regional regulatory capture using micro-level data on the preferential treatment of firms through regional laws and regulations in Russia during the period 1992-2000. Using these measures, we find that: 1) politically powerful firms perform better on average; 2) a high level of regulatory capture hurts the performance of firms that have no political connections and boosts the performance of politically connected firms; 3) capture adversely affects small business growth and the tax capacity of the state; 4) there is no evidence that capture affects aggregate growth.Regulatory capture, institutional subversion, Russia, redistribution, special interest politics

On recovery and intensity's correlation : a new class of credit risk models

There has been increasing support in the empirical literature that both the probability of default (PD) and the loss given default (LGD) are correlated and driven by macroeconomic variables. Paradoxically, there has been very little effort from the theoretical literature to develop credit risk models that would include this possibility. The goals of this paper are: first, to develop the theoretical reduced-form framework needed to handle stochastic correlation of recovery and intensity, proposing a new class of models; and, second, to use concrete instance of our class to study the impact of this correlation in credit risk term structures. Our class of models is able to replicate and explain empirically observed features. For instance, we automatically get that periods of economic depression are periods of higher default intensity and where low recovery is more likely - the well-know credit risk business cycle effect. Finally, we show how to calibrate this class of models to market data, and illustrate the technique using our concrete instance using US market data on corporate yields.Financial support from Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius foundation. This research was also partially supported by the Austrian Science Foundation project P18022 at the Vienna University of Technolog

Institutional Subversion: Evidence from Russian Regions

What are the effects of institutional subversion on small business development, fiscal policies, economic growth, and firm performance? This paper provides an empirical investigation of institutional subversion in Russia’s regions. We develop a complete account of preferential treatments to the largest regional firms in texts of regional legislation during 1992-2000. The concentration of preferential treatments is used as a proxy for legislative subversion. Based on cross-section and panel data analysis, we find that regional institutional subversion has an adverse effect on small business growth, tax collection, social public spending, and federal tax arrears. Robustness of these results is verified by looking at a proxy for potential subversion based on size concentration in regional economies. The alternative approach produces similar results. Regional political influence generates substantial gains to firms both in the long and the short run. These firms exhibit faster growth in sales, market share, profitability, employment, and capital compared to their counterparts who are not politically connected. Yet, firms that exercise political influence have lower labor productivity.http://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/39990/2/wp604.pd

The Impact of Fiscal Decentralization on the Budget Revenue Inequality among Municipalities and Growth of Russian

What is the link between the fiscal decentralization, inequality among municipalities within a region, and Russian regions' welfare? Despite the conventional wisdom that fiscal decentralization is beneficial, the author suggests that the poor Russian regions do not always gain from decentralization. The author also suggests that a low initial capital endowment and long-term credit market imperfections could lead to the situation when fiscal decentralization fosters inequality within a region which, in turn, could slow down the overall regional growth. The analysis is conducted using an extensive panel dataset of Russian municipalities