Use of Bayesian networks in forensic soil casework

Forensic soil comparisons can be of high evidential value in a forensic case, but become complex when multiple methods and factors are considered. Bayesian networks are well suited to support forensic practitioners in complex casework. This study discusses the structure of a Bayesian network, elaborates on the in- and output data and evaluates two examples, one using source level propositions and one using activity level propositions. These examples can be applied as a template to construct a case specific network and can be used to assess sensitivity of the target output to different factors and identify avenues for research

Evidence for widespread alterations in cortical microstructure after 32 h of sleep deprivation

Cortical microstructure is influenced by circadian rhythm and sleep deprivation, yet the precise underpinnings of these effects remain unclear. The ratio between T1-weighted and T2-weighted magnetic resonance images (T1w/T2w ratio) has been linked to myelin levels and dendrite density and may offer novel insight into the intracortical microstructure of the sleep deprived brain. Here, we examined intracortical T1w/T2w ratio in 41 healthy young adults (26 women) before and after 32 h of either sleep deprivation (n = 18) or a normal sleep-wake cycle (n = 23). Linear models revealed significant group differences in T1w/T2w ratio change after 32 h in four clusters, including bilateral effects in the insular, cingulate, and superior temporal cortices, comprising regions involved in attentional, auditory and pain processing. Across clusters, the sleep deprived group showed an increased T1w/T2w ratio, while the normal sleep-wake group exhibited a reduced ratio. These changes were not explained by in-scanner head movement, and 95% of the effects across clusters remained significant after adjusting for cortical thickness and hydration. Compared with a normal sleep-wake cycle, 32 h of sleep deprivation yields intracortical T1w/T2w ratio increases. While the intracortical changes detected by this study could reflect alterations in myelin or dendritic density, or both, histological analyses are needed to clarify the precise underlying cortical processes.publishedVersio

Effects of acute nutritional ketosis during exercise in adults with glycogen storage disease typeIIIaare phenotype-specific:An investigator-initiated, randomized, crossover study

Glycogen storage disease type IIIa (GSDIIIa) is an inborn error of carbohydrate metabolism caused by a debranching enzyme deficiency. A subgroup of GSDIIIa patients develops severe myopathy. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether acute nutritional ketosis (ANK) in response to ketone-ester (KE) ingestion is effective to deliver oxidative substrate to exercising muscle in GSDIIIa patients. This was an investigator-initiated, researcher-blinded, randomized, crossover study in six adult GSDIIIa patients. Prior to exercise subjects ingested a carbohydrate drink (~66 g, CHO) or a ketone-ester (395 mg/kg, KE) + carbohydrate drink (30 g, KE + CHO). Subjects performed 15-minute cycling exercise on an upright ergometer followed by 10-minute supine cycling in a magnetic resonance (MR) scanner at two submaximal workloads (30% and 60% of individual maximum, respectively). Blood metabolites, indirect calorimetry data, and in vivo 31P-MR spectra from quadriceps muscle were collected during exercise. KE + CHO induced ANK in all six subjects with median peak βHB concentration of 2.6 mmol/L (range: 1.6-3.1). Subjects remained normoglycemic in both study arms, but delta glucose concentration was 2-fold lower in the KE + CHO arm. The respiratory exchange ratio did not increase in the KE + CHO arm when workload was doubled in subjects with overt myopathy. In vivo 31P MR spectra showed a favorable change in quadriceps energetic state during exercise in the KE + CHO arm compared to CHO in subjects with overt myopathy. Effects of ANK during exercise are phenotype-specific in adult GSDIIIa patients. ANK presents a promising therapy in GSDIIIa patients with a severe myopathic phenotype. Trial registration number: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03011203

Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy plus surgery versus active surveillance for oesophageal cancer: A stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial

Background: Neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (nCRT) plus surgery is a standard treatment for locally advanced oesophageal cancer. With this treatment, 29% of patients have a pathologically complete response in the resection specimen. This provides the rationale for investigating an active surveillance approach. The aim of this study is to assess the (cost-)effectiveness of active surveillance vs. standard oesophagectomy after nCRT for oesophageal cancer. Methods: This is a phase-III multi-centre, stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial. A total of 300 patients with clinically complete response (cCR, i.e. no local or disseminated disease proven by histology) after nCRT will be randomised to show non-inferiority of active surveillance to standard oesophagectomy (non-inferiority margin 15%, intra-correlation coefficient 0.02, power 80%, 2-sided α 0.05, 12% drop-out). Patients will undergo a first clinical response evaluation (CRE-I) 4-6 weeks after nCRT, consisting of endoscopy with bite-on-bite biopsies of the primary tumour site and other suspected lesions. Clinically complete responders will undergo a second CRE (CRE-II), 6-8 weeks after CRE-I. CRE-II will include 18F-FDG-PET-CT, followed by endoscopy with bite-on-bite biopsies and ultra-endosonography plus fine needle aspiration of suspected lymph nodes and/or PET- positive lesions. Patients with cCR at CRE-II will be assigned to oesophagectomy (first phase) or active surveillance (second phase of the study). The duration of the first phase is determined randomly over the 12 centres, i.e., stepped-wedge cluster design. Patients in the active surveillance arm will undergo diagnostic evaluations similar to CRE-II at 6/9/12/16/20/24/30/36/48 and 60 months after nCRT. In this arm, oesophagectomy will be offered only to patients in whom locoregional regrowth is highly suspected or proven, without distant dissemination. The main study parameter is overall survival; secondary endpoints include percentage of patients who do not undergo surgery, quality of life, clinical irresectability (cT4b) rate, radical resection rate, postoperative complications, progression-free survival, distant dissemination rate, and cost-effectiveness. We hypothesise that active surveillance leads to non-inferior survival, improved quality of life and a reduction in costs, compared to standard oesophagectomy. Discussion: If active surveillance and surgery as needed after nCRT leads to non-inferior survival compared to standard oesophagectomy, this organ-sparing approach can be implemented as a standard of care

A Fortran 90 program for confirmatory analysis of variance

There are different confirmatory techniques to compare means, like hypothesis testing and (Bayesian) model selection. However, there is no software package in which these techniques are available. A Fortran 90 program is written, which enables researchers to apply these techniques to their data. Besides traditional hypotheses, like H0 : μ1 = μ2 = μ3 and Hu : μ1, μ2, μ3, order-restricted hypotheses, like μ1 > μ2 > μ3 or μ1 > μ2 = μ3 or μ1 > μ2 < μ3, can be evaluated