Cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit analyses of risk-based screening strategies for breast cancer

The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1) To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2) To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial), the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years) and the ending ages (69 and 74 years) in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies.This study was funded by grants PS09/01340 and PS09/01153 from the Health Research Fund (Fondo de Investigación Sanitaria) of the Spanish Ministry of Health. The authors thank the Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium and the funding that the BCSC received from the National Cancer Institute (U01CA63740, U01CA86076, U01CA86082, U01CA63736, U01CA70013, U01CA69976, U01CA63731, U01CA70040, and HHSN261201100031C). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript

Tumor phenotype and breast density in distinct categories of interval cancer: results of population-based mammography screening in Spain

Introduction: Interval cancers are tumors arising after a negative screening episode and before the next screening invitation. They can be classified into true interval cancers, false-negatives, minimal-sign cancers, and occult tumors based on mammographic findings in screening and diagnostic mammograms. This study aimed to describe tumor-related characteristics and the association of breast density and tumor phenotype within four interval cancer categories. Methods: We included 2,245 invasive tumors (1,297 screening-detected and 948 interval cancers) diagnosed from 2000 to 2009 among 645,764 women aged 45 to 69 who underwent biennial screening in Spain. Interval cancers were classified by a semi-informed retrospective review into true interval cancers (n = 455), false-negatives (n = 224), minimal-sign (n = 166), and occult tumors (n = 103). Breast density was evaluated using Boyd’s scale and was conflated into: 75%. Tumor-related information was obtained from cancer registries and clinical records. Tumor phenotype was defined as follows: luminal A: ER+/HER2- or PR+/HER2-; luminal B: ER +/HER2+ or PR+/HER2+; HER2: ER-/PR-/HER2+; triple-negative: ER-/PR-/HER2-. The association of tumor phenotype and breast density was assessed using a multinomial logistic regression model. Adjusted odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated. All statistical tests were two-sided. Results: Forty-eight percent of interval cancers were true interval cancers and 23.6% false-negatives. True interval cancers were associated with HER2 and triple-negative phenotypes (OR = 1.91 (95% CI:1.22-2.96), OR = 2.07 (95% CI:1.42-3.01), respectively) and extremely dense breasts (>75%) (OR = 1.67 (95% CI:1.08-2.56)). However, among true interval cancers a higher proportion of triple-negative tumors was observed in predominantly fatty breasts (<25%) than in denser breasts (28.7%, 21.4%, 11.3% and 14.3%, respectively; <0.001). False-negatives and occult tumors had similar phenotypic characteristics to screening-detected cancers, extreme breast density being strongly associated with occult tumors (OR = 6.23 (95% CI:2.65-14.66)). Minimal-sign cancers were biologically close to true interval cancers but showed no association with breast density. Conclusions: Our findings revealed that both the distribution of tumor phenotype and breast density play specific and independent roles in each category of interval cancer. Further research is needed to understand the biological basis of the overrepresentation of triple-negative phenotype among predominantly fatty breasts in true interval cancers

Cost-Effectiveness and Harm-Benefit Analyses of Risk-Based Screening Strategies for Breast Cancer

The one-size-fits-all paradigm in organized screening of breast cancer is shifting towards a personalized approach. The present study has two objectives: 1) To perform an economic evaluation and to assess the harm-benefit ratios of screening strategies that vary in their intensity and interval ages based on breast cancer risk; and 2) To estimate the gain in terms of cost and harm reductions using risk-based screening with respect to the usual practice. We used a probabilistic model and input data from Spanish population registries and screening programs, as well as from clinical studies, to estimate the benefit, harm, and costs over time of 2,624 screening strategies, uniform or risk-based. We defined four risk groups, low, moderate-low, moderate-high and high, based on breast density, family history of breast cancer and personal history of breast biopsy. The risk-based strategies were obtained combining the exam periodicity (annual, biennial, triennial and quinquennial), the starting ages (40, 45 and 50 years) and the ending ages (69 and 74 years) in the four risk groups. Incremental cost-effectiveness and harm-benefit ratios were used to select the optimal strategies. Compared to risk-based strategies, the uniform ones result in a much lower benefit for a specific cost. Reductions close to 10% in costs and higher than 20% in false-positive results and overdiagnosed cases were obtained for risk-based strategies. Optimal screening is characterized by quinquennial or triennial periodicities for the low or moderate risk-groups and annual periodicity for the high-risk group. Risk-based strategies can reduce harm and costs. It is necessary to develop accurate measures of individual risk and to work on how to implement risk-based screening strategies

Impact of risk factors on different interval cancer subtypes in a population-based breast cancer screening programme.

BACKGROUND: Interval cancers are primary breast cancers diagnosed in women after a negative screening test and before the next screening invitation. Our aim was to evaluate risk factors for interval cancer and their subtypes and to compare the risk factors identified with those associated with incident screen-detected cancers. METHODS: We analyzed data from 645,764 women participating in the Spanish breast cancer screening program from 2000-2006 and followed-up until 2009. A total of 5,309 screen-detected and 1,653 interval cancers were diagnosed. Among the latter, 1,012 could be classified on the basis of findings in screening and diagnostic mammograms, consisting of 489 true interval cancers (48.2%), 235 false-negatives (23.2%), 172 minimal-signs (17.2%) and 114 occult tumors (11.3%). Information on the screening protocol and women's characteristics were obtained from the screening program registry. Cause-specific Cox regression models were used to estimate the hazard ratios (HR) of risks factors for interval cancer and incident screen-detected cancer. A multinomial regression model, using screen-detected tumors as a reference group, was used to assess the effect of breast density and other factors on the occurrence of interval cancer subtypes. RESULTS: A previous false-positive was the main risk factor for interval cancer (HR = 2.71, 95%CI: 2.28-3.23); this risk was higher for false-negatives (HR = 8.79, 95%CI: 6.24-12.40) than for true interval cancer (HR = 2.26, 95%CI: 1.59-3.21). A family history of breast cancer was associated with true intervals (HR = 2.11, 95%CI: 1.60-2.78), previous benign biopsy with a false-negatives (HR = 1.83, 95%CI: 1.23-2.71). High breast density was mainly associated with occult tumors (RRR = 4.92, 95%CI: 2.58-9.38), followed by true intervals (RRR = 1.67, 95%CI: 1.18-2.36) and false-negatives (RRR = 1.58, 95%CI: 1.00-2.49). CONCLUSION: The role of women's characteristics differs among interval cancer subtypes. This information could be useful to improve effectiveness of breast cancer screening programmes and to better classify subgroups of women with different risks of developing cancer