Empirical fragility assessment of buildings affected by the 2011 Great East Japan tsunami using improved statistical models

Tsunamis are destructive natural phenomena which cause extensive damage to the built environment, affecting the livelihoods and economy of the impacted nations. This has been demonstrated by the tragic events of the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004, or the Great East Japan tsunami in 2011. Following such events, a few studies have attempted to assess the fragility of the existing building inventory by constructing empirical stochastic functions, which relate the damage to a measure of tsunami intensity. However, these studies typically fit a linear statistical model to the available damage data, which are aggregated in bins of similar levels of tsunami intensity. This procedure, however, cannot deal well with aggregated data, low and high damage probabilities, nor does it result in the most realistic representation of the tsunami-induced damage. Deviating from this trend, the present study adopts the more realistic generalised linear models which address the aforementioned disadvantages. The proposed models are fitted to the damage database, containing 178,448 buildings surveyed in the aftermath of the 2011 Japanese tsunami, provided by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure Transport and Tourism in Japan. In line with the results obtained in previous studies, the fragility curves show that wooden buildings (the dominant construction type in Japan) are the least resistant against tsunami loading. The diagnostics show that taking into account both the building’s construction type and the tsunami flow depth is crucial to the quality of the damage estimation and that these two variables do not act independently. In addition, the diagnostics reveal that tsunami flow depth estimates low levels of damage reasonably well; however, it is not the most representative measure of intensity of the tsunami for high damage states (especially structural damage). Further research using disaggregated damage data and additional explanatory variables is required in order to obtain reliable model estimations of building damage probability

Semi-Static Hedging Based on a Generalized Reflection Principle on a Multi Dimensional Brownian Motion

On a multi-assets Black-Scholes economy, we introduce a class of barrier options. In this model we apply a generalized reflection principle in a context of the finite reflection group acting on a Euclidean space to give a valuation formula and the semi-static hedge.Comment: Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, online firs

Observational studies of urban heat island characteristics in different climatic zones

Thesis (Ph.D. in Science)--University of Tsukuba, (B), no. 763, 1992.3.2

Path Integral for Space-time Noncommutative Field Theory

The path integral for space-time noncommutative theory is formulated by means of Schwinger's action principle which is based on the equations of motion and a suitable ansatz of asymptotic conditions. The resulting path integral has essentially the same physical basis as the Yang-Feldman formulation. It is first shown that higher derivative theories are neatly dealt with by the path integral formulation, and the underlying canonical structure is recovered by the Bjorken-Johnson-Low (BJL) prescription from correlation functions defined by the path integral. A simple theory which is non-local in time is then analyzed for an illustration of the complications related to quantization, unitarity and positive energy conditions. From the view point of BJL prescription, the naive quantization in the interaction picture is justified for space-time noncommutative theory but not for the simple theory non-local in time. We finally show that the perturbative unitarity and the positive energy condition, in the sense that only the positive energy flows in the positive time direction for any fixed time-slice in space-time, are not simultaneously satisfied for space-time noncommutative theory by the known methods of quantization.Comment: 21 page

Anomalies and O-plane charges in orientifolded brane tilings

We investigate orientifold of brane tilings. We clarify how the cancellations of gauge anomaly and Witten's anomaly are guaranteed by the conservation of the D5-brane charge. We also discuss the relation between brane tilings and the dual Calabi-Yau cones realized as the moduli spaces of gauge theories. Two types of flavor D5-branes in brane tilings and corresponding superpotentials of fundamental quark fields are proposed, and it is shown that the massless loci of these quarks in the moduli space correctly reproduce the worldvolume of flavor D7-branes in the Calabi-Yau cone dual to the fivebrane system.Comment: 46 pages, 19 figure

Mass-loaded spherical accretion flows

We have calculated the evolution of spherical accretion flows undergoing mass-loading from embedded clouds through either conduction or hydrodynamical ablation. We have observed the effect of varying the ratios of the mass-loading timescale and the cooling timescale to the ballistic crossing timescale through the mass-loading region. We have also varied the ratio of the potential energy of a particle injected into the flow near the outer region of mass-loading to the temperature at which a minimum occurs in the cooling curve. The two types of mass-loading produce qualitatively different types of behaviour in the accretion flow, since mass-loading through conduction requires the ambient gas to be hot, whereas mass ablation from clumps occurs throughout the flow. Higher ratios of injected to accreted mass typically occur with hydrodynamical ablation, in agreement with previous work on wind-blown bubbles and supernova remnants. We find that mass-loading damps the radiative overstability of such flows, in agreement with our earlier work. If the mass-loading is high enough it can stabilize the accretion shock at a constant radius, yielding an almost isothermal subsonic post-shock flow. Such solutions may be relevant to cooling flows onto massive galaxies. Mass-loading can also lead to the formation of isolated shells of high temperature material, separated by gas at cooler temperatures

A proposed methodology for deriving tsunami fragility functions for buildings using optimum intensity measures

Tsunami fragility curves are statistical models which form a key component of tsunami risk models, as they provide a probabilistic link between a tsunami intensity measure (TIM) and building damage. Existing studies apply different TIMs (e.g. depth, velocity, force etc.) with conflicting recommendations of which to use. This paper presents a rigorous methodology using advanced statistical methods for the selection of the optimal TIM for fragility function derivation for any given dataset. This methodology is demonstrated using a unique, detailed, disaggregated damage dataset from the 2011 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami (total 67,125 buildings), identifying the optimum TIM for describing observed damage for the case study locations. This paper first presents the proposed methodology, which is broken into three steps: (1) exploratory analysis, (2) statistical model selection and trend analysis and (3) comparison and selection of TIMs. The case study dataset is then presented, and the methodology is then applied to this dataset. In Step 1, exploratory analysis on the case study dataset suggests that fragility curves should be constructed for the sub-categories of engineered (RC and steel) and non-engineered (wood and masonry) construction materials. It is shown that the exclusion of buildings of unknown construction material (common practice in existing studies) may introduce bias in the results; hence, these buildings are estimated as engineered or non-engineered through use of multiple imputation (MI) techniques. In Step 2, a sensitivity analysis of several statistical methods for fragility curve derivation is conducted in order to select multiple statistical models with which to conduct further exploratory analysis and the TIM comparison (to draw conclusions which are non-model-specific). Methods of data aggregation and ordinary least squares parameter estimation (both used in existing studies) are rejected as they are quantitatively shown to reduce fragility curve accuracy and increase uncertainty. Partially ordered probit models and generalised additive models (GAMs) are selected for the TIM comparison of Step 3. In Step 3, fragility curves are then constructed for a number of TIMs, obtained from numerical simulation of the tsunami inundation of the 2011 GEJE. These fragility curves are compared using K-fold cross-validation (KFCV), and it is found that for the case study dataset a force-based measure that considers different flow regimes (indicated by Froude number) proves the most efficient TIM. It is recommended that the methodology proposed in this paper be applied for defining future fragility functions based on optimum TIMs. With the introduction of several concepts novel to the field of fragility assessment (MI, GAMs, KFCV for model optimisation and comparison), this study has significant implications for the future generation of empirical and analytical fragility functions

Exploring Community Preparedness for Complex Disaster: A Case Study in Cilegon (Banten Province in Indonesia)

This study aims at examining how local communities in City of Cilegon (Banten province in Indonesia) consider ‘complex disasters’, and clarifying their subjective perceptions. The present research is considered as the first step in our comprehensive research design beyond a specific case study. The nuclear accidents in the GreatEast Japan Earthquake and the huge flood in Thailand provide lessons that natural disasters can cause catastrophic influences on industries and they generate cascading effects and damages. We define such complicated phenomena as ‘complex disasters’ in this article. Cilegon is potentially exposed to such complex disasters because it has natural disaster risks (among others, the Krakatau volcano sits adjacent to it, andrecalling historical earthquakes and tsunami) and industrial disaster risks (a lot of heavy industry facilities including chemical ones), and these two types of risks can be combined and made reality. A ‘model for the communication of risk’ developed by Rodriguez et al. (2007) is adopted as an analytical framework in this study. The model predicts involvement of many types of actors and can be considered as an adequate framework for our study. This study mainly focused on one industrial gas facility of Pertamina, a state-owned energy company, and its surrounding community (Lebak Gede village) in Cilegon. The qualitative methodologies were used in this study: One focused group discussion (FGD) and three key informant interviews were implemented by the authors. The participants of the FGD were twelve leaders of the neighborhood associations (locally described as ‘RT’ and ‘RW’ in Indonesian acronym) closest to the Pertamina facility (two RW leaders and ten RT leaders). The key informant interviews were separately and additionally conducted with a head of a village, a neighborhoodassociation leader (this leader was different from the FGD participants) and a local forum entity, in order to reinforce observations at the FGD. Our survey observed that involvement of the Indonesia Power, a subsidiary of state-owned electricity company whose facilities adjacent to Petamina’s facility, as one of the industry actors, local governmental agencies and the Indonesian Red Cross. On the other hand, we did not clearly identify any clear involvement of the educational institutions and the mass media, although the model of Rodriguez et al. (2007) estimates their engagement. People in Lebak Gede village have already expected potential threats by large-scale natural disasters. Furthermore, they recognize that such disasters give influence on the industrial facilities and the consequences are catastrophic. Although local residents in Lebak Gede village had a lot of experiences of industrial accidents in the past, these experiences did not initiate a significant mindset change for a more organized preparedness. Instead, they paid larger attentions to floods as their preparedness priority. This study adopted the qualitative method for gathering specific information, but more comprehensive research can contribute to verify preparedness and risk perception on the complex disasters. Although this article selectively dealt with one village (Lebak Gede village) and its preparedness and perception, the findings is to be further clarified in detail for generalizing community preparedness for the complex disasters. Keywords: community, risk perception, natural disaster risk, industrial disaster risk, complex disaster, Cilego