Simple Market Timing with Moving Averages

Consider using the simple moving average (MA) rule of Gartley (1935) to determine when to buy stocks, and when to sell them and switch to the risk-free rate. In comparison, how might the performance be affected if the frequency is changed to the use of MA calculations? The empirical results show that, on average, the lower is the frequency, the higher are average daily returns, even though the volatility is virtually unchanged when the frequency is lower. The volatility from the highest to the lowest frequency is about 30% lower as compared with the buy-and-hold strategy volatility, but the average returns approach the buy-and-hold returns when frequency is lower. The 30% reduction in volatility appears if we invest randomly half the time in stock markets and half in the risk-free rate

Market timing with moving averages

Consider using the simple moving average (MA) rule of Gartley to determine when to buy stocks, and when to sell them and switch to the risk-free rate. In comparison, how might the performance be affected if the frequency is changed to the use of MA calculations? The empirical results show that, on average, the lower is the frequency, the higher are average daily returns, even though the volatility is virtually unchanged when the frequency is lower. The volatility from the highest to the lowest frequency is about 30% lower as compared with the buy-and-hold strategy volatility, but the average returns approach the buy-and-hold returns when frequency is lower. The 30% reduction in volatility appears if we invest randomly half the time in stock markets and half in the risk-free rate

Smoking and suicidality among adolescent psychiatric patients

Purpose: To investigate the relationship between smoking and suicidality among adolescent psychiatric patients in Finland. Methods: Data from 157 patients (aged 12-17 years) admitted to inpatient psychiatric hospitalization between April 2001 and July 2002 were collected. Logistic regression analyses were used to examine the association between regular daily smoking and suicidality. The data were adjusted for several sociodemographic and clinical characteristics. Results: The results showed over four-fold risk for definite and/or life-threatening suicide attempts among smoking adolescents in inpatient psychiatric facility compared with nonsmoking ones (OR 4.33, 95% CI 1.23-15.20). Also, the smoking adolescents had three times greater risk for occasional (OR 3.32, 95% CI 1.09-10.10) or frequent (OR 3.00, 95% CI 1.08-10.10) self-mutilation. Suicidality was more common among girls than boys and among those adolescents who suffered from depression. Conclusions: Among teens hospitalized for psychiatric illnesses, daily smoking was significantly related to suicide attempts and self-mutilation, even after controlling for several confounding factors, including psychiatric diagnosis. (C) Society for Adolescent Medicine, 2004.Peer reviewe

Long run returns predictability and volatility with moving averages

This paper examines how the size of the rolling window, and the frequency used in moving average (MA) trading strategies, affects financial performance when risk is measured. We use the MA rule for market timing, that is, for when to buy stocks and when to shift to the risk-free rate. The important issue regarding the predictability of returns is assessed. It is found that performance improves, on average, when the rolling window is expanded and the data frequency is low. However, when the size of the rolling window reaches three years, the frequency loses its significance and all frequencies considered produce similar financial performance. Therefore, the results support stock returns predictability in the long run. The procedure takes account of the issues of variable persistence as we use only returns in the analysis. Therefore, we use the performance of MA rules as an instrument for testing returns predictability in financial stock markets

Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages

The paper examines how the size of the rolling window, and the frequency used in moving average (MA) trading strategies, affect financial performance when risk is measured. We use the MA rule for market timing, that is, for when to buy stocks and when to shift to the risk-free rate. The important issue regarding the predictability of returns is assessed. It is found that performance improves, on average, when the rolling window is expanded and the data frequency is low. However, when the size of the rolling window reaches three years, the frequency loses its significance and all frequencies considered produce similar financial performance. Therefore, the results support stock returns predictability in the long run. The procedure takes account of the issues of variable persistence as we use only returns in the analysis. Therefore, we use the performance of MA rules as an instrument for testing returns predictability in financial stock markets

Causality between CO2 emissions and stock markets

It is generally accepted in the scientific community that carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, which lead to global warming, arise from using fossil fuels, namely coal, oil and gas, as energy sources. Consequently, alleviating the effects of global warming and climate change necessitates substantial reductions in the use of fossil fuel energy.

Market Timing with Moving Averages for Fossil Fuel and Renewable Energy Stocks

The paper examines whether the moving average (MA) technique can beat random market timing in traditional and newer branches of an industrial sector. The sector considered is the energy sector, divided into balanced stock portfolios of fossil and renewable energy companies. Eight representative firms are selected for both portfolios. The paper finds that MA timing outperforms random timing with the portfolio of renewable energy companies, whereas the result is less clear with the portfolio of fossil energy companies. Thus, there seems to be more forecastable stochastic trends in sunrise branches than in sunset branches

Central Bank Intervention, Bubbles and Risk in Walrasian Financial Markets

The paper investigates the effects of central bank interventions in financial markets, composed of asymmetrically-informed rational investors and noise traders. If the central bank suspects a bubble, it should lift the real risk-free rate to deflate the bubble in “leaning against the wind”. A rise in the real risk-free rate reduces the risk of rational informed investors, and increases the risk of rational uninformed investors. If the central bank intervenes through the nominal risk-free rate and the Fisher arbitrage condition holds, an increase in the nominal rate is transferred to inflation, thereby dampening the policy effect. Conversely, this implies that the central bank can also deflate the bubble by inducing a reduction in inflationary expectations. The effect on the informed investor risk remains ambiguous, while the risk of he uninformed investor grows, but only if they suffer from money illusion

Implementing virtual collaborative inquiry practises in a middle-school context

The aim of the present study was to investigate the challenges that relate to the implementation of virtual inquiry practises in middle school. The case was a school course in which a group of Finnish students (N = 14) and teachers (N = 7) completed group inquiries through virtual collaboration, using a web-based learning environment. The task was to accomplish a cross-disciplinary inquiry into cultural issues. The students worked mainly at home and took much responsibility for their course achievements. The investigators analysed the pedagogical design of the course and the content of the participants' interaction patterns in the web-based environment, using qualitative content analysis and social network analysis. The findings suggest that the students succeeded in producing distinctive cultural products, and both the students and the teachers adopted novel roles during the inquiry. The web-based learning environment was used more as a coordination tool for organizing the collaborative work than as a forum for epistemic inquiry. The tension between the school curriculum and the inquiry practises was manifest in the participants' discussions of the assessment criteria of the course.The aim of the present study was to investigate the challenges that relate to the implementation of virtual inquiry practises in middle school. The case was a school course in which a group of Finnish students (N = 14) and teachers (N = 7) completed group inquiries through virtual collaboration, using a web-based learning environment. The task was to accomplish a cross-disciplinary inquiry into cultural issues. The students worked mainly at home and took much responsibility for their course achievements. The investigators analysed the pedagogical design of the course and the content of the participants' interaction patterns in the web-based environment, using qualitative content analysis and social network analysis. The findings suggest that the students succeeded in producing distinctive cultural products, and both the students and the teachers adopted novel roles during the inquiry. The web-based learning environment was used more as a coordination tool for organizing the collaborative work than as a forum for epistemic inquiry. The tension between the school curriculum and the inquiry practises was manifest in the participants' discussions of the assessment criteria of the course.The aim of the present study was to investigate the challenges that relate to the implementation of virtual inquiry practises in middle school. The case was a school course in which a group of Finnish students (N = 14) and teachers (N = 7) completed group inquiries through virtual collaboration, using a web-based learning environment. The task was to accomplish a cross-disciplinary inquiry into cultural issues. The students worked mainly at home and took much responsibility for their course achievements. The investigators analysed the pedagogical design of the course and the content of the participants' interaction patterns in the web-based environment, using qualitative content analysis and social network analysis. The findings suggest that the students succeeded in producing distinctive cultural products, and both the students and the teachers adopted novel roles during the inquiry. The web-based learning environment was used more as a coordination tool for organizing the collaborative work than as a forum for epistemic inquiry. The tension between the school curriculum and the inquiry practises was manifest in the participants' discussions of the assessment criteria of the course.Peer reviewe

Long Run Returns Predictability and Volatility with Moving Averages

The paper examines how the size of the rolling window, and the frequency used in moving average (MA) trading strategies, affect financial performance when risk is measured. We use the MA rule for market timing, that is, for when to buy stocks and when to shift to the risk-free rate. The important issue regarding the predictability of returns is assessed. It is found that performance improves, on average, when the rolling window is expanded and the data frequency is low. However, when the size of the rolling window reaches three years, the frequency loses its significance and all frequencies considered produce similar financial performance. Therefore, the results support stock returns predictability in the long run. The procedure takes account of the issues of variable persistence as we use only returns in the analysis. Therefore, we use the performance of MA rules as an instrument for testing returns predictability in financial stock markets