Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemic in Nigeria

Nigeria is one of the countries most affected by the HIV/AIDS pandemic, third only to India and South Africa. With about 10% of the global HIV/AIDS cases estimated to be in the country, the public health and socio-economic implications are enormous. This thesis has two broad aims: the first is to develop statistical models which adequately describe the spatial distribution of the Nigerian HIV/AIDS epidemic and its associated ecological risk factors; the second, to develop models that could reconstruct the HIV incidence curve, obtain an estimate of the hidden HIV/AIDS population and a short term projection for AIDS incidence and a measure of precision of the estimates. To achieve these objectives, we first examined data from various sources and selected three sets of data based on national coverage and minimal reporting delay. The data sets are the outcome of the National HIV/AIDS Sentinel Surveillance Survey conducted in 1999, 2001, 2003 and 2005 by the Federal Ministry of Health; the outcome of the survey of 1057 health and laboratory facilities conducted by the Nigerian Institute of Medical Research in 2000; and case by case HIV screening data collected from an HIV/AIDS centre of excellence. A thorough review of methods used by WHO/UNAIDS to produce estimates of the Nigerian HIV/AIDS scenario was carried out. The Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) currently being used for modelling the epidemic partitions the population into at-risk, not-at-risk and infected sub-populations. It also requires some parameter input representing the force of infection and behaviour or high risk adjustment parameter. It may be difficult to precisely ascertain the size of these population groups and parameters in countries as large and diverse as Nigeria. Also, the accuracy of vital rates used in the EPP and Spectrum program is doubtful. Literature on ordinary back-calculation, nonparametric back-calculation, and modified back-calculation methods was reviewed in detail. Also, an indepth review of disease mapping techniques including multilevel models and geostatistical methods was conducted. The existence of spatial clusters was investigated using cluster analysis and some measure of spatial autocorrelation (Moran I and Geary c coefficients, semivariogram and kriging) applied to the National HIV/AIDS Surveillance data. Results revealed the existence of spatial clusters with significant positive spatial autocorrelation coefficients that tended to get stronger as the epidemic developed through time. GAM and local regression fit on the data revealed spatial trends on the north-south and east - west axis. Analysis of hierarchical, spatial and ecological factor effects on the geographical variation of HIV prevalence using variance component and spatial multilevel models was performed using restricted maximum likelihood implemented in R and empirical and full Bayesian methods in WinBUGS. Results confirmed significant spatial effects and some ecological factors were significant in explaining the variation. Also, variation due to various levels of aggregation was prominent. Estimates of cumulative HIV infection in Nigeria were obtained from both parametric and nonparametric back-calculation methods. Step and spline functions were assumed for the HIV infection curve in the parametric case. Parameter estimates obtained using 3-step and 4-step models were similar but the standard errors of these parameters were higher in the 4-step model. Estimates obtained using linear, quadratic, cubic and natural splines differed and also depended on the number and positions of the knots. Cumulative HIV infection estimates obtained using the step function models were comparable with those obtained using nonparametric back-calculation methods. Estimates from nonparametric back-calculation were obtained using the EMS algorithm. The modified nonparametric back-calculation method makes use of HIV data instead of the AIDS incidence data that are used in parametric and ordinary nonparametric back-calculation methods. In this approach, the hazard of undergoing HIV test is different for routine and symptom-related tests. The constant hazard of routine testing and the proportionality coefficient of symptom-related tests were estimated from the data and incorporated into the HIV induction distribution function. Estimates of HIV prevalence differ widely (about three times higher) from those obtained using parametric and ordinary nonparametric back-calculation methods. Nonparametric bootstrap procedure was used to obtain point-wise confidence interval and the uncertainty in estimating or predicting precisely the most recent incidence of AIDS or HIV infection was noticeable in the models but greater when AIDS data was used in the back-projection model. Analysis of case by case HIV screening data indicate that of 33349 patients who attended the HIV laboratory of a centre of excellence for the treatment of HIV/AIDS between October 2000 and August 2006, 7646 (23%) were HIV positive with females constituting about 61% of the positive cases. The bulk of infection was found in patients aged 15-49 years, about 86 percent of infected females and 78 percent of males were in this age group. Attendance at the laboratory and the proportion of HIV positive tests witnessed a remarkable increase when screening became free of charge. Logistic regression analysis indicated a 3-way interaction between time period, age and sex. Removing the effect of time by stratifying by time period left 2-way interactions between age and sex. A Correction factor for underreporting was ascertained by studying attendance at the laboratory facility over two time periods defined by the cost of HIV screening. Estimates of HIV prevalence obtained from corrected data using the modified nonparametric back-calculation are comparable with UN estimates obtained by a different method. The Nigerian HIV/AIDS pandemic is made up of multiple epidemics spatially located in different parts of the country with most of them having the potential of being sustained into the future given information on some risk factors. It is hoped that the findings of this research will be a ready tool in the hands of policy makers in the formulation of policy and design of programs to combat the epidemic in the country. Access to data on HIV/AIDS are highly restricted in the country and this hampers more in-depth modelling of the epidemic. Subject to data availability, we recommend that further work be done on the construction of stratification models based on sex, age and the geopolitical zones in order to estimate the infection intensity in each of the population groups. Uncertainties surrounding assumptions of infection intensity and incubation distribution can be minimized using Bayesian methods in back-projection

Authority, Power, and Conflict in Organization: Analysis of the Impact of Their Functional Relationship In Organization Performance

Working together effectively in organization is not an easy task. This is because it is human beings in the organization that work together and human beings naturally are complex and unique. In order to effectively work together, the human beings in organization are divided into two groups – the leaders and the led i.e. managers and workers. Even at that, the division is simply a means to an end and not an end itself. This is true because managers cannot effectively manage the workers to work effectively without administrative “force” and that “force” consists of authority and power. Authority is the formal right to make decisions and to influence workers behaviour to implement those decisions based on organizational relationship. Power on the other hand is the ability of a manager to influence the behaviour of workers based on informal relationship. Whether formal or informal, the essence of authority and power in organization is to mould, modify, direct, and influence the behaviour and actions of workers toward the achievement of organizational objectives. In the process of directing and influencing the workers, conflicts are bound to occur. Conflict as a natural phenomenon and part of organization life can occur within and between individual workers, within and between groups of workers, and even between the workers and management. In practice, the outcome of the influence of authority and power on the behaviour of the workers can be positive or negative depending on their multiplying effect on productivity and growth of the organization. If the multiplying effect increases productivity and growth of the organization, the influence will be said to be positive while it is negative if the multiplying effect result to a drop in productivity and growth of the organization. KEYWORDS: authority, power, conflict, impact, relationship, organization, performance

Energy Security in European Union

This article examines the role of the European Union in assurance to Energy Security for its citizens, types of energy, challenges that hinders the supply of energy. Tension between European states and effects on the European Union. Ways of developing infrastructure towards clean resources to reduce gas emissions and climate changes to achieve energy sustainability. Particular focusing on the challenges and treats in securing energy for the European union examine influence of actors such asorganization and countries on the energy market for the European union. Furthermore the research paper examines the future plans of the European Union towards energy security and alternative energy resources for decrease dependence on fossil fuel

Analysis of the Relative Impact of Inflation and Unemployment on Nigerian Economy (1980-2012)

The Nigerian economy has been undergoing the most severe economic crisis of unemployment and inflation ever since the 1980s. Inflation has been staggering well up to double digit rates while unemployment rate has been rising astronomically. These twin economic evils have continued to cause considerable hardship for many Nigerian families and to pose a serious threat to the mental health of substantial proportion of the population. This study therefore aims at not only investigating the relative impact of inflation and unemployment on the level of economic activities in Nigeria but also, employing the Granger Causality test to determine the existence of any causal influence between inflation and unemployment. The empirical results indicate that both inflation and unemployment significantly affect the level of Nigeria’s economic performance, and that causality runs from inflation to unemployment. Also revealed is that the two variables are inversely related to economic growth both in the short-run and long-run. And finally, that inflation and unemployment are inversely related to each other in the short=run but directly related in the long-run. The researcher recommends the Central Bank of Nigeria’s (CBN) continuous pursuit, vigorously and transparently, the policy of inflation targeting, improvement of infrastructure and access to credit to make it possible for more people to do business in Nigeria. Also recommended is a partnership between the Ministry of Trade and Investment and the World Bank in the formers drive towards increasing foreign direct Investment inflow, job creation, and generation of policies towards the growth of small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Keywords: Inflation, Granger Causality, Unemployment, Unit root, Co-integratio

Leadership and Work Attitude: A Symbiosis Relationship that Shape Organization Performance

The term leadership tends to conjure in our minds picture of great military commanders such as General Patton,stirring politicians and statesmen such as Winston Churchill, or charismatic leaders of national movements suchas Gandhi. But while people such as these were undoubtedly great leaders, they are only the most visible andobvious examples of leadership in action. Infarct, every time a person attempts to get other people to dosomething that the person wants them to do, he or she is functioning as a leader. Seen in this perspective,leadership is exercised in organizations from the chief executive officer right down to the first-level supervisoron the shop floor. Leadership is a core variable in the management of human and material resources withoutwhich organizations or groups may not function effectively. Concepts like mob or crowd simply define anassembly of people without leadership. On the other hand, a situation of anarchy describes a group with apparentleadership disintegration. When an economic venture is undertaken by an organization, with a view tomaximizing economic opportunities, it calls for a person or persons to supervise, direct, control, and co-ordinatethe activities of production and workers co-operation. This example simply points to the role of leadership in anorganization.Keywords: Leaders, Workers, Influence, Symbiosis, Organization, Performance

Rural access roads and the quest for agricultural development: an appraisal of the conditions in south-east in nigeria

This study examined the quest for agricultural development in Nigeria vis-à-vis the conditions of rural access roads in South-east Nigeria. Specifically, the study investigated the impact of the condition of the three types of rural access roads, namely, bush-paths, gravel-surfaced roads, and tarred roads on the quantity of food crops produced by smallholder farmers, their income levels, and contribution to agricultural GDP. The study adopted the quantitative research method and cross-sectional survey design. The questionnaire was validated and pre-tested. The reliability test performed on the questionnaire showed a Cronbach’s Alpha Index of 0.823. Five (5) sample units comprising five chapters of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) in Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo States were used to select 328 stratified random respondents. Descriptive statistics consisting of frequency counts, and percentages were used in analyzing the data. Three hypotheses were put forward for test using Simple Linear Regression and ANOVA. The findings show that bush-paths as rural access roads did not significantly increase the quantity of food crops produced by rural farmers, that gravel-surfaced roads as rural roads never increased the income level of rural farmers; and that tarred roads as rural access roads did not contribute significantly to total agricultural GDP. The study recommends that government and other major stakeholders like international agencies and other development partners should prioritize and embark on massive rural road construction and regular maintenance

Rural access roads and the quest for agricultural development: An appraisal of the conditions in South-East In Nigeria

This study examined the quest for agricultural development in Nigeria vis-à-vis the conditions of rural access roads in South-east Nigeria. Specifically, the study investigated the impact of the condition of the three types of rural access roads, namely, bush-paths, gravel-surfaced roads, and tarred roads on the quantity of food crops produced by smallholder farmers, their income levels, and contribution to agricultural GDP. The study adopted the quantitative research method and cross-sectional survey design. The questionnaire was validated and pre-tested. The reliability test performed on the questionnaire showed a Cronbach’s Alpha Index of 0.823. Five (5) sample units comprising five chapters of the All Farmers Association of Nigeria (AFAN) in Abia, Anambra, Ebonyi, Enugu and Imo States were used to select 328 stratified random respondents. Descriptive statistics consisting of frequency counts, and percentages were used in analyzing the data. Three hypotheses were put forward for test using Simple Linear Regression and ANOVA. The findings show that bush-paths as rural access roads did not significantly increase the quantity of food crops produced by rural farmers, that gravel-surfaced roads as rural roads never increased the income level of rural farmers; and that tarred roads as rural access roads did not contribute significantly to total agricultural GDP. The study recommends that government and other major stakeholders like international agencies and other development partners should prioritize and embark on massive rural road construction and regular maintenance

Skills Acquisition and Entrepreneurship Training for Youth, a Panacea for Unemployment and Nigerian Insecurity

Human resources is a blessing to any nation because of diverse opinions/views that will be shared on issues affecting such nation but when the able bodied youths, educated who are to take over the leadership or governance are unemployed after years of graduation looks frustrating and thus posed as  security challenges to such nation.  Skills acquisition and entrepreneurship training for the youths will serve as succor to ameliorate the high rate of unemployment rather than allowing the youths to roam the street and thereby engage in unwholesome practices to earn a living. In our findings, we explored the recent employment saga in Nigeria, the effect of unemployment and youth vanguard and the consequences of youth unemployment and security challenges.  In conclusion, we advocated that the insecurity in Nigeria as a sectarian violence should be discarded rather it is caused majorly by unemployment. Keywords: Skills acquisition, Entrepreneurship, Youths. Unemployment and Insecurit

Antiviral Effects of a Synthetic Aluminium-Magnesium Silicate on Avian Influenza Virus

Effects of a synthetic Aluminium-Magnesium Silicate (AMS) on Avian Influenza Virus (AIV) were tested. Equal amounts of H5N1 AIV samples and of AMS were mixed, left one hour, at room temperature before centrifuging. The supernatants were remeasured and tested for viral titre, for Mean Death Time (MDT) and Embryo Mortality Rate (EMR) of chicken eggs. Volumes of the viral samples reduced at rate of 23.4 ± 5.48 %. Viral titres reduced significantly (P from HA, 73 ± 32.72 to 1.4 ±0.43). Also, mortality of infected embryos reduced from 100 % to 65% while MDT of those that died, increased significantly (P = 0.001) from 76 ± 4.38 to 130 ±17.27 hours. When incubation with AMS was repeated on portions of the same sample, MDT increased from 64 to 104 hours with the portion incubated once. Two AIV portions on which incubation with AMS was repeated could not kill chick embryos

In-Depth Assessment of Proximate, Vitamin, and Mineral Composition Analysis of Locally Cultivated Rice Varieties in South-Eastern Nigeria

In this research, the aim was to assess the proximate analysis, as well as the vitamin and mineral composition analysis of locally cultivated rice varieties in rice south-eastern Nigeria with a focus on the location-based effect and grain-length-based effect on proximate analysis, mineral, and vitamin contents of FARO 44 rice species farmed in Southeast Nigeria. The study area includes several locations in southeast Nigeria: Omasi (Latitude: 6° 42' 14" N, Longitude: 6°58' 46" E), Omar (Latitude: 6° 30' 37" N, Longitude: 6° 57' 32" E), Ikwo (Latitude: 6.0659° N, longitude: 8.0953° E), Izzi (Latitude: 6.5792° N, Longitude: 8.0475° E), Adani (Latitude: 6.7340° N, longitude: 7.0095° E), and Eha-Amufu (Latitude: 6.6590° N, Longitude: 7.7607°E). Standard methods were followed during sampling and laboratory analysis. The study found that the main effect of locations on the proximate analysis of FARO 44 rice species was not significant, except for protein, moisture, and carbohydrate (CHO) content. The highest protein content was observed in the Ikwo location, while moisture content was similar among several locations except for Eha-Amufu, which had the lowest moisture content. Regarding vitamin content, the location had a significant influence, with variations observed in different locations for vitamin E, B1, B2, vitamin C, and B-Carotene. Furthermore, both location and grain length had a significant effect on mineral content, particularly copper, zinc, and potassium, with variations observed among different locations and grain lengths. Keywords: mineral composition, proximate analysis, vitamin, rice, south-east Nigeria DOI: 10.7176/JBAH/13-14-02 Publication date:August 31st 202