Large Deviation Theory for a Homogenized and "Corrected" Elliptic ODE

We study a one-dimensional elliptic problem with highly oscillatory random diffusion coefficient. We derive a homogenized solution and a so-called Gaussian corrector. We also prove a "pointwise" large deviation principle (LDP) for the full solution and approximate this LDP with a more tractable form. These results allow one to access the limits of Gaussian correctors. In general, the corrector does not capture the large deviation behavior. Applications to uncertainty quantification are considered

A Hybrid (Monte-Carlo/Deterministic) Approach for Multi-Dimensional Radiation Transport

A novel hybrid Monte Carlo transport scheme is demonstrated in a scene with solar illumination, scattering and absorbing 2D atmosphere, a textured reflecting mountain, and a small detector located in the sky (mounted on a satellite or a airplane). It uses a deterministic approximation of an adjoint transport solution to reduce variance, computed quickly by ignoring atmospheric interactions. This allows significant variance and computational cost reductions when the atmospheric scattering and absorption coefficient are small. When combined with an atmospheric photon-redirection scheme, significant variance reduction (equivalently acceleration) is achieved in the presence of atmospheric interactions

A scalable system to measure contrail formation on a per-flight basis

Persistent contrails make up a large fraction of aviation's contribution to global warming. We describe a scalable, automated detection and matching (ADM) system to determine from satellite data whether a flight has made a persistent contrail. The ADM system compares flight segments to contrails detected by a computer vision algorithm running on images from the GOES-16 Advanced Baseline Imager. We develop a 'flight matching' algorithm and use it to label each flight segment as a 'match' or 'non-match'. We perform this analysis on 1.6 million flight segments. The result is an analysis of which flights make persistent contrails several orders of magnitude larger than any previous work. We assess the agreement between our labels and available prediction models based on weather forecasts. Shifting air traffic to avoid regions of contrail formation has been proposed as a possible mitigation with the potential for very low cost/ton-CO2e. Our findings suggest that imperfections in these prediction models increase this cost/ton by about an order of magnitude. Contrail avoidance is a cost-effective climate change mitigation even with this factor taken into account, but our results quantify the need for more accurate contrail prediction methods and establish a benchmark for future development.Comment: 25 pages, 6 figure