Validating the 'seven functions' model of technological innovations systems theory with industry stakeholders: a review from UK offshore renewables.

Technological Innovation Systems theory, and its 'functions' framework, have demonstrated their value as tools for exploring socio-technological transitions. Although the 'seven functions' model has demonstrated its academic value across a vast literature, there have been few attempts to explore the model through the lens of industry stakeholder opinion. We believe that involving a relevant stakeholder group offers the potential for validating this approach, and even potentially enriching it. This research aims to address that shortfall. In 32 interviews with senior participants in the UK offshore wind, tidal stream and wave sectors and associated supply chain, policy makers, support organisations and other stakeholders, the validity of the seven well-established 'Hekkert' functions was tested. The research found that the interviewees confirmed that all seven functions were necessary in characterising the emergence of the focal technologies, and analysis of the interviews allowed the definition and scope of each function to be enriched. The research also found that an additional function—defined as 'Demonstrating Value'—was helpful in providing a more complete description of technology emergence. This function is defined and appropriate metrics for it are discussed. The authors suggest that this proposed enrichment of the 'functions' model may provide a greater understanding of socio-technological transitions in the face of volatile external contextual factors, whose importance the current COVID pandemic has made all too obvious

Addressing recent misreporting of findings from 'Better estimates of LCOE from audited accounts: a new methodology with examples from United Kingdom offshore wind and CCGT'.

Recent interest in the Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE) for offshore wind has led to considerable media coverage of this topic. The paper to which this article refers provides some useful insights, but the authors are concerned that their findings are being misreported and misinterpreted. Specifically, some of the media coverage appears to misunderstand or disregard the acknowledged limitations of the paper, citing it to support contentions regarding the likely trajectory of costs for offshore wind farms. This research note addresses some of these issues and urges caution in use of the original paper’s findings. This new research note recapitulates the main themes of the original paper and directly addresses the areas where its findings have apparently been misunderstood. It concludes with a restated and reinforced warning that the analysis and projection of historic costs in offshore wind, or indeed in any fast-developing technology sector, should be undertaken with extreme caution when used to consider future cost trends

Better estimates of LCOE from audited accounts: a new methodology with examples from United Kingdom offshore wind and CCGT.

Around the world, government policies to support new renewable energy technologies rely on accurate estimates of Levelised Cost of Energy (LCOE). This paper reveals that such estimates are based on 'public domain' data which may be unreliable. A new approach and methodology has been developed which uses United Kingdom (UK) 'audited' data, published in company accounts, that has been obtained from Companies House, to determine more accurate LCOE estimates. The methodology is applicable to projects configured within Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) companies. The methodology is then applied to a number of UK offshore wind farms and one Combined Cycle Gas Turbine (CCGT) project to develop new cost data which is then compared to that presently in the public domain. The analysis reveals that recent offshore wind projects show a slightly declining LCOE and that public domain cost estimates are unreliable. But of most concern is that offshore wind farm costs are still much higher than those implied by recent bids for UK government financial support via Contracts for Difference (CfDs). The paper concludes by addressing further the question of how offshore wind projects can achieve the degree of LCOE reductions required by recent CfD bids

Analysis of United Kingdom offshore wind farm performance using public data: improving the evidence base for policymaking.

Policymakers and regulators increasingly need to balance the requirements of energy demand, security and costs, and to do so they need accurate estimates of performance. This study uses public data to assess UK offshore wind farm performance to improve policy decisions. We find that average capacity factors have improved from 34.9% in Round 1 (2001) to 41.0% in Round 2 (2002) projects. Drivers and correlations of performance for United Kingdom offshore wind farms are analysed. The research also addresses problems with existing capacity factor estimates and generates new estimates of inter-year variability of capacity factors, providing a more accurate evidence base for policy and regulatory decisions

Flows of granular material in two-dimensional channels

Secondary cone-type crushing machines are an important part of the aggregate production process. These devices process roughly crushed material into aggregate of greater consistency and homogeneity. We apply a continuum model for granular materials (`A Constitutive Law For Dense Granular Flows', Nature 441, p727-730, 2006) to flows of granular material in representative two-dimensional channels, applying a cyclic applied crushing stress in lieu of a moving boundary. Using finite element methods we solve a sequence of quasi-steady fluid problems within the framework of a pressure dependent particle size problem in time. Upon approximating output quantity and particle size we adjust the frequency and strength of the crushing stroke to assess their impact on the output

Language-free graphical signage improves human performance and reduces anxiety when working collaboratively with robots

As robots become more ubiquitous, and their capabilities extend, novice users will require intuitive instructional information related to their use. This is particularly important in the manufacturing sector, which is set to be transformed under Industry 4.0 by the deployment of collaborative robots in support of traditionally low-skilled, manual roles. In the first study of its kind, this paper reports how static graphical signage can improve performance and reduce anxiety in participants physically collaborating with a semi-autonomous robot. Three groups of 30 participants collaborated with a robot to perform a manufacturing-type process using graphical information that was relevant to the task, irrelevant, or absent. The results reveal that the group exposed to relevant signage was significantly more accurate in undertaking the task. Furthermore, their anxiety towards robots significantly decreased as a function of increasing accuracy. Finally, participants exposed to graphical signage showed positive emotional valence in response to successful trials. At a time when workers are concerned about the threat posed by robots to jobs, and with advances in technology requiring upskilling of the workforce, it is important to provide intuitive and supportive information to users. Whilst increasingly sophisticated technical solutions are being sought to improve communication and confidence in human-robot co-working, our findings demonstrate how simple signage can still be used as an effective tool to reduce user anxiety and increase task performance

Internet-based treatment for older adults with depression and co-morbid cardiovascular disease: protocol for a randomised, double-blind, placebo controlled trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Depression, cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors and cognitive impairment are important causes of disability and poor health outcomes. In combination they lead to an even worse prognosis. Internet or web-based interventions have been shown to deliver efficacious psychological intervention programs for depression on a large scale, yet no published studies have evaluated their impact among patients with co-existing physical conditions. The aims of this randomised controlled trial are to determine the effects of an evidence-based internet intervention program for depression on depressive mood symptoms, cognitive function and treatment adherence in patients at risk of CVD.</p> <p>Methods/Design</p> <p>This study is an internet-based, double-blind, parallel group randomised controlled trial. The trial will compare the effectiveness of online cognitive behavioural therapy with an online attention control placebo. The trial will consist of a 12-week intervention phase with a 40-week follow-up. It will be conducted in urban and rural New South Wales, Australia and will recruit a community-based sample of adults aged 45 to 75 years. Recruitment, intervention, cognitive testing and follow-up data collection will all be internet-based and automated. The primary outcome is a change in severity of depressive symptoms from baseline to three-months. Secondary outcomes are changes in cognitive function and adherence to treatment for CVD from baseline to three, six and 12-months.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>Prior studies of depression amongst patients with CVD have targeted those with previous vascular events and major depression. The potential for intervening earlier in these disease states appears to have significant potential and has yet to be tested. Scalable psychological programs using web-based interventions could deliver care to large numbers in a cost effective way if efficacy were proved. This study will determine the effects of a web-based intervention on depressive symptoms and adherence to treatment among patients at risk of CVD. In addition it will also precisely and reliably define the effects of the intervention upon aspects of cognitive function that are likely to be affected early in at risk individuals, using sensitive and responsive measures.</p> <p>Trial registration</p> <p>Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR): <a href="http://www.anzctr.org.au/ACTRN12610000085077.aspx">ACTRN12610000085077</a></p

Mendelian randomisation implicates hyperlipidaemia as a risk factor for colorectal cancer.

While elevated blood cholesterol has been associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) in observational studies, causality is uncertain. Here we apply a Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis to examine the potential causal relationship between lipid traits and CRC risk. We used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with blood levels of total cholesterol (TC), triglyceride (TG), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and high-density lipoprotein (HDL) as instrumental variables (IV). We calculated MR estimates for each risk factor with CRC using SNP-CRC associations from 9,254 cases and 18,386 controls. Genetically predicted higher TC was associated with an elevated risk of CRC (odds ratios (OR) per unit SD increase = 1.46, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.20-1.79, P=1.68x10−4). The pooled ORs for LDL, HDL, and TG were 1.05 (95% CI: 0.92-1.18, P=0.49), 0.94 (95% CI: 0.84-1.05, P= 0.27), and 0.98 (95% CI: 0.85-1.12, P=0.75) respectively. A genetic risk score for 3-hydoxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR) to mimic the effects of statin therapy was associated with a reduced CRC risk (OR=0.69, 95% CI: 0.49-0.99, P=0.046). This study supports a causal relationship between higher levels of TC with CRC risk, and a further rationale for implementing public health strategies to reduce the prevalence of hyperlipidaemia. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved

Falls and falls efficacy: the role of sustained attention in older adults

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Previous evidence indicates that older people allocate more of their attentional resources toward their gait and that the attention-related changes that occur during aging increase the risk of falls. The aim of this study was to investigate whether performance and variability in sustained attention is associated with falls and falls efficacy in older adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>458 community-dwelling adults aged ≥ 60 years underwent a comprehensive geriatric assessment. Mean and variability of reaction time (RT), commission errors and omission errors were recorded during a fixed version of the Sustained Attention to Response Task (SART). RT variability was decomposed using the Fast Fourier Transform (FFT) procedure, to help characterise variability associated with the arousal and vigilance aspects of sustained attention.</p> <p>The number of self-reported falls in the previous twelve months, and falls efficacy (Modified Falls Efficacy Scale) were also recorded.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Significant increases in the mean and variability of reaction time on the SART were significantly associated with both falls (p < 0.01) and reduced falls efficacy (p < 0.05) in older adults. An increase in omission errors was also associated with falls (p < 0.01) and reduced falls efficacy (p < 0.05). Upon controlling for age and gender affects, logistic regression modelling revealed that increasing variability associated with the vigilance (top-down) aspect of sustained attention was a retrospective predictor of falling (p < 0.01, OR = 1.14, 95% CI: 1.03 - 1.26) in the previous year and was weakly correlated with reduced falls efficacy in non-fallers (p = 0.07).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Greater variability in sustained attention is strongly correlated with retrospective falls and to a lesser degree with reduced falls efficacy. This cognitive measure may provide a novel and valuable biomarker for falls in older adults, potentially allowing for early detection and the implementation of preventative intervention strategies.</p