Hydrological cycle in the Danube basin in present-day and XXII century simulations by IPCCAR4 global climate models

We present an intercomparison and verification analysis of 20 GCMs (Global Circulation Models) included in the 4th IPCC assessment report regarding their representation of the hydrological cycle on the Danube river basin for 1961–2000 and for the 2161–2200 SRESA1B scenario runs. The basin-scale properties of the hydrological cycle are computed by spatially integrating the precipitation, evaporation, and runoff fields using the Voronoi-Thiessen tessellation formalism. The span of the model- simulated mean annual water balances is of the same order of magnitude of the observed Danube discharge of the Delta; the true value is within the range simulated by the models. Some land components seem to have deficiencies since there are cases of violation of water conservation when annual means are considered. The overall performance and the degree of agreement of the GCMs are comparable to those of the RCMs (Regional Climate Models) analyzed in a previous work, in spite of the much higher resolution and common nesting of the RCMs. The reanalyses are shown to feature several inconsistencies and cannot be used as a verification benchmark for the hydrological cycle in the Danubian region. In the scenario runs, for basically all models the water balance decreases, whereas its interannual variability increases. Changes in the strength of the hydrological cycle are not consistent among models: it is confirmed that capturing the impact of climate change on the hydrological cycle is not an easy task over land areas. Moreover, in several cases we find that qualitatively different behaviors emerge among the models: the ensemble mean does not represent any sort of average model, and often it falls between the models’ clusters

IEA EBC Annex 57 ‘Evaluation of Embodied Energy and CO_2eq for Building Construction'

The current regulations to reduce energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) from buildings have focused on operational energy consumption. Thus legislation excludes measurement and reduction of the embodied energy and embodied GHG emissions over the building life cycle. Embodied impacts are a significant and growing proportion and it is increasingly recognized that the focus on reducing operational energy consumption needs to be accompanied by a parallel focus on reducing embodied impacts. Over the last six years the Annex 57 has addressed this issue, with researchers from 15 countries working together to develop a detailed understanding of the multiple calculation methods and the interpretation of their results. Based on an analysis of 80 case studies, Annex 57 showed various inconsistencies in current methodological approaches, which inhibit comparisons of results and difficult development of robust reduction strategies. Reinterpreting the studies through an understanding of the methodological differences enabled the cases to be used to demonstrate a number of important strategies for the reduction of embodied impacts. Annex 57 has also produced clear recommendations for uniform definitions and templates which improve the description of system boundaries, completeness of inventory and quality of data, and consequently the transparency of embodied impact assessments

ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981–2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile–quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081–2100 using projections from three S-5-3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan

The impact of climate-related extreme events on public health workforce and infrastructure – how can we be better prepared?

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s fifth assessment report1 states with confidence that human induced climate change is occurring and that temperatures will continue to rise, even if CO2 emissions were to stop forthwith. The report also acknowledges that climate-related extreme events are increasing in frequency, severity and duration; particularly heavy rainfall events, intensification of cyclones, increases in tidal surge and fires. This poses the question: “Are we prepared?” This is question that public health authorities will need to face but, as health systems are increasingly stressed due to limited resources, increased demand and workforce shortages, being prepared becomes even more challenging. Extreme events place an additional burden on health systems already under pressure due to increased demand for health care services, and as public health resources are offset against the demands in the acute care sector. (For the purposes of this paper, public health services refer to those health and related services that seek to prevent disease and promote health.) The impact on often already overstretched public health services may not be recognised, and additional resourcing and support may not follow. As discussed later, recent Australian experiences indicate that the status quo will not be sufficient to both mount a successful public health response to climate-related extreme events and maintain a strong public health infrastructure

A history of international climate change policy

This article presents an overview of the history of international climate change policy over the last 30 years, divided into five periods. It examines the pre-1990 period, the period leading up to the adoption of the Climate Change Convention, the period of the Kyoto Protocol until US withdrawal, the period thereafter focusing on the entry into force of the Kyoto Protocol, and the post-2008 period that coincides with the financial crisis. For each period, it discusses the relevant science, actors, and coalitions, the agreements emerging in that period, and the key issues and the major trends. In doing so, it examines the evolving articulation of the leadership paradigm,which is the centerpiece of the discussion on how climate change should be addressed. The article shows (1) the increasing complexity of the definition of the climate change issue from an environmental to a development issue; (2) the inability of the developed countries to reduce their own emissions and raise funds commensurate with the nature of the problem and their initial commitments; (3) the increasing engagement of different social actors in the discussion and, in particular, the gradual use of market mechanisms in the regime; (4) the increasing search for alternative solutions within the formal negotiations-such as the identification of nationally appropriate mitigation actions for the developing world, reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, and the use of geo-engineering solutions; and (5) the search for solutions outside the regime-the mobilization of sub-national policies on climate change, litigation, and markets on biofuels. © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd